ORH_wxman Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 It's open to interpretation..#dealwithit True, there is always at least some small wiggle room in interpreting a model output. But it certainly doesn't typically encompass the grossly inaccurate version you gave of the 12z Euro. The 12z Euro might be wrong...but rather than saying "the 12z Euro is warm and dry through the end of its run" when it most definitely is not, a better way to phrase it might be "the Euro shows a rainy day this Saturday along the front and then a sharp cooldown at the end of its run...but I'm not buying it. I think it will be warm and dry for the next 10 days". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Nice warm dry looking Euro thru day 10 Except for the weekend Yeah, if you take away the pouring rain on D5, the massive polar wedge from the NE on D7 ...and the deep trough carving into the Lakes D10 ... sure. This thread is where to come for some good laughs... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 This thread is where to come for some good laughs... lol. Pretty colors at 500 mb = warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Euro backs off to almost no rain for weekend . Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Euro backs off to almost no rain for weekend . Ugh The rain is going to be convective so naturally you're going to have a hit or miss scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Tough find prolonged warmth except maybe at the end of the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Doesn't seem below normal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Doesn't seem below normal to me. Might even out to near normal, but some signs marine flow could dampen highs in the 6-10 day. 11-15 day looks warm, but this time of year the flow is prone to cutoff so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Might even out to near normal, but some signs marine flow could dampen highs in the 6-10 day. 11-15 day looks warm, but this time of year the To flow is prone to cutoff so who knows.To be fair though models didn't show the insane torch for the first 12 days of May though. I think we are back into one of those regimes where everything ends up verifying warmer than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 To be fair though models didn't show the insane torch for the first 12 days of May though. I think we are back into one of those regimes where everything ends up verifying warmer than modeled Maybe, but next weeks heat looks very brief now. I don't see a prolonged torch by any means. Best chance of warmth is death valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Maybe, but next weeks heat looks very brief now. I don't see a prolonged torch by any means. Best chance of warmth is death valley.You think we can sneak a warm Mem Day weekend in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 You think we can sneak a warm Mem Day weekend in? Would seem like at least part of it could be warm...but lets remember how far away we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 FWIW Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx 37m 37 minutes ago FYI- Euro Weeklies continue above normal temperatures in the eastern US through mid June. El Nino continues to strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 FWIW Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx 37m 37 minutes ago FYI- Euro Weeklies continue above normal temperatures in the eastern US through mid June. El Nino continues to strengthen. interesting that we're seeing signals for warmth...I always thought a strengthening nino would bring cooler and wet in the May/June timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Something to celebrate @NWSBoston: [May] So far so dry! On our way to the monthly record? Boston 0.25"-1944, Hartford 0.73"-1959, Providence 0.57"-1939, Worcester 0.86"-1959 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Maybe, but next weeks heat looks very brief now. I don't see a prolonged torch by any means. Best chance of warmth is death valley. Speaking of (the real) Death Valley, they are hiring a permanent pup fish technician...if anyone is interested...i hear it's very dry, and hot out that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Remember that super soaker the Euro had for this weekend? Vanished faster than Scooter's pants on prom night. Drier and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Euro actually has an MC S looking deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Heat fail next week except maybe briefly in typical spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Heat fail next week except maybe briefly in typical spots. Still seems like couple days in low-mid 80's. and with dry ground BDL/CEF 1-2 days near 90 probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Man even tomorrow will manage to over perform all MOS numbers BDL will get to 70 or higher. Feedback beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Still seems like couple days in low-mid 80's. and with dry ground BDL/CEF 1-2 days near 90 probably That's a horrible way to get heat with east winds. Only briefy as front approaches will it get warm. It's too pinches off with trough to the east. However at least part of Mem weekend looks pretty warm. For now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 That's a horrible way to get heat with east winds. Only briefy as front approaches will it get warm. It's too pinches off with trough to the east. However at least part of Mem weekend looks pretty warm. For now anyways. Fri-Mem Day dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Fri-Mem Day dry? Well (and this is a big stretch so beware) it's possible some showers move in with warmer air Friday, and then maybe something Monday aftn with cold fropa? But nevermind those details this far out. Seems like a decent weekend overall. But, stuff like BDF are impossible to decipher this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Well (and this is a big stretch so beware) it's possible some showers move in with warmer air Friday, and then maybe something Monday aftn with cold fropa? But nevermind those details this far out. Seems like a decent weekend overall. But, stuff like BDF are impossible to decipher this far out.Oh yeah I know. We can't even get this coming weekend down. Looked like a few showers.. Now totally dry.. Hopefully the holly weekend is the same. Annual Cape soccer tourney and eligible now for championship on Mem day itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Oh yeah I know. We can't even get this coming weekend down. Looked like a few showers.. Now totally dry.. Hopefully the holly weekend is the same. Annual Cape soccer tourney and eligible now for championship on Mem day itself I honestly don't see this weekend as totally dry. Sure, maybe not 5" of rain..but might be some nighttime shwrs or even tstms moving through and dependent on WF positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 I honestly don't see this weekend as totally dry. Sure, maybe not 5" of rain..but might be some nighttime shwrs or even tstms moving through and dependent on WF positioning. will it be gray and dreary? Or will it be typical summer wx with a few downpours intermingled with mostly sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 will it be gray and dreary? Or will it be typical summer wx with a few downpours intermingled with mostly sun? Well could be a lot of onshore flow so might not be pretty...but sometimes it breaks up in the aftn leading to a decent day. Seems a bit too early to say..but not a fan of the look. I would bet on one of those days being sh*tty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 My feeling is almost all of the rain stays well south of us. Like NYC south. I have a feeling we end up with a decent weekend with 70's and sun / clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Epic heat fail next week. When in doubt, COC it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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