Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 I never said cool. Your calls have been over the top as usual. I know your thermometer reads too cold, but you can't always justify calls by using ORH in the winter and an inaccurate BDL thermometer in the summer.I don't understand why it's so hard for you guys to admit I do a good job ? Sure I bust. Everyone does. I don't recall anyone else calling for dews in 69's and temps of 90 or higher , or recommending ac be installed. That's not over the top. It's verification. I am very happy with my overall thoughts .. And I don't there will be a day this week under 70 at BDL.. I don't think it will be a rainy weekend coming up and u think there will be a 2-3 day period of heat and dews again next week.What are your thoughts on Mem Day weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 It hasn't really been heat w Dews from a true summer perspective, but being early season the Dews are into the slightly uncomfortable range. Friday was a dry heat. 90 will be tough tommorrow with more clouds. Today there is a chance in the usual torch spots but not in CNE like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 I don't understand why it's so hard for you guys to admit I do a good job ? Sure I bust. Everyone does. I don't recall anyone else calling for dews in 69's and temps of 90 or higher , or recommending ac be installed. That's not over the top. It's verification. I am very happy with my overall thoughts .. And I don't there will be a day this week under 70 at BDL.. I don't think it will be a rainy weekend coming up and u think there will be a 2-3 day period of heat and dews again next week. What are your thoughts on Mem Day weekend? Except for death valley..nobody else had hit 90s. a day of low 60s dews aren't horrible either. Many areas will be in the 40s for overnight lows coming up. This weather has been great...if it could only stay that way. This weekend looks treicky with low pressure and MCS possibly passing SW of us leaving the area in SE flow with maybe some showers? I don't see rainy either, but may not be the best weekend. Memorial weekend at first guess looks rather nice. Some of the models try to hang a boundary nearby so if that happens all bets are off, but first guess looks rather warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Except for death valley..nobody else had hit 90s. a day of low 60s dews aren't horrible either. Many areas will be in the 40s for overnight lows coming up. This weather has been great...if it could only stay that way. This weekend looks treicky with low pressure and MCS possibly passing SW of us leaving the area in SE flow with maybe some showers? I don't see rainy either, but may not be the best weekend. Memorial weekend at first guess looks rather nice. Some of the models try to hang a boundary nearby so if that happens all bets are off, but first guess looks rather warm. How much rain for SNE do you see from now thru Sunday? And is there just as good a chance we see none? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 How much rain for SNE do you see from now thru Sunday? And is there just as good a chance we see none? Well this time of year..you know how it goes. Some may get a decent drink, but many may stay pretty dry. I don't see any widespread appreciable rain unfortunately. However, if that low forms and holds together as it crosses the Great Lakes, we may get leftover rains/tstms as it moves over New England this weekend. That may be our best shot...but convection and resultant lows this time of year are difficult to model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Considering how I've done the last few weeks..I don't think you have any room to say a thing to me.. I don't see a cool pattern at all. I see 2-3 days of potential 90 again early next week Pimping that warm finish to April...that worked out well (our only consistent stretch below normal). Over-exaggerating the warm/humid conditions this past several days. Misreading 850 temps as how it might be at the surface. I'd keep the hype to the banter thread. The model thread is for discussing what the models show. Not saying what you want it to show. If you want something to focus on, have it be the D8-9 warmup...it looks like COC on each side of it for several days as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Well this time of year..you know how it goes. Some may get a decent drink, but many may stay pretty dry. I don't see any widespread appreciable rain unfortunately. However, if that low forms and holds together as it crosses the Great Lakes, we may get leftover rains/tstms as it moves over New England this weekend. That may be our best shot...but convection and resultant lows this time of year are difficult to model.I have a feeling like the Euro Phail this week we see nada this weekend. Never seen anything like this pattern in mid spring. Should be lush wet and green. We are 3 straight weeks now of no rain. 3 more weeks until Wills magic mumber of 6 weeks and serious problems arise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 I have a feeling like the Euro Phail this week we see nada this weekend. Never seen anything like this pattern in mid spring. Should be lush wet and green. We are 3 straight weeks now of no rain. 3 more weeks until Wills magic mumber of 6 weeks and serious problems arise Reservoirs around here are pretty full from what I saw. Even rivers don't seem that low. Our "droughts" are usually like what this area had last year. Low rivers and low water levels in shallow reservoirs. More of an annoyance. The 60s had more real droughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Reservoirs around here are pretty full from what I saw. Even rivers don't seem that low. Our "droughts" are usually like what this area had last year. Low rivers and low water levels in shallow reservoirs. More of an annoyance. The 60s had more real droughts. I remember we had a brief time in 1995 when we had water restrictions around here...but even then it was only short-lived. Drought here is almost an oxymoron. You really have to go back to the 1960s to see real drought in NE. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 I remember we had a brief time in 1995 when we had water restrictions around here...but even then it was only short-lived. Drought here is almost an oxymoron. You really have to go back to the 1960s to see real drought in NE. . I've heard of several people casually talking about the 60s and that period (mid 60s I guess?) of it being pretty darn dry. Must have been impressive for people to actually remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 I've heard of several people casually talking about the 60s and that period (mid 60s I guess?) of it being pretty darn dry. Must have been impressive for people to actually remember it. The 1960s stick out like a sore thumb. Not only do you have the two driest periods in 1965 and 1966...they were preceded by several below average precip years in a row leading up to it. You'll notice how rare it is for our region to have multi-year stretches below average like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Yeah that's it. A few people mentioned 1964 and 1965 specifically. Pretty telling about the 00s too. Slowly regressing to the mean since the mid part of the decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 GFS would imply some needed rain, but a lousy weekend perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Or it could be dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Or it could be dry Just depends where the WF stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Just depends where the WF stalls.As woeful as that model has been the last month.. I think I'd like to see some support from other models to even entertain scattered showers/ storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 As woeful as that model has been the last month.. I think I'd like to see some support from other models to even entertain scattered showers/ storms It did decent with the backdoor. Better than Euro from Friday May 8th. It may be too wet though as it had some QPF too. It hasn't been all terrible, but the EC and GFS aren't far apart this weekend..especially if 12z euro comes in further north. Both models have E-SE flow, so maybe warmest areas are in Mitchland where he loves heat and down in the CT valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Nice warm dry looking Euro thru day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Nice warm dry looking Euro thru day 10 Except for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Yeah, if you take away the pouring rain on D5, the massive polar wedge from the NE on D7 ...and the deep trough carving into the Lakes D10 ... sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Except for the weekend That setup as depicted sure doesn't look like it would deliver much rain..Looked like that this week same time frame last week..and look what happened. I'd say still under .50 thru day 10 for most of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 That setup as depicted sure doesn't look like it would deliver much rain..Looked like that this week same time frame last week..and look what happened. I'd say still under .50 thru day 10 for most of SNE Hmmm. OK. Thanks for the superb model analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Hmmm. OK. Thanks for the superb model analysis! Well then when I watch live at 5:00..I'll expect to see you with all day pouring rain symbol Saturday. You always say one thing on here..then when I see tv it's totally different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Well then when I watch live at 5:00..I'll expect to see you with all day pouring rain symbol Saturday. You always say one thing on here..then when I see tv it's totally different. Why do you expect him to have a pouring rain symbol based on a day 5 Euro output? Just because the model shows it, doesn't mean he has to forecast it. It's a model thread...it's not a "this is what I'm definitely forecasting" thread. When you said the Euro looks warm and dry throughout its run and it actually doesn't, you can expect to be corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 I'm sorry but there would have to be superb model agreement to put a pouring rain forecast out at 5 days. the way to go would be mostly cloudy with a little peek of sun but also some rain drops to cover the possibility of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Why do you expect him to have a pouring rain symbol based on a day 5 Euro output? Just because the model shows it, doesn't mean he has to forecast it. It's a model thread...it's not a "this is what I'm definitely forecasting" thread. When you said the Euro looks warm and dry throughout its run and it actually doesn't, you can expect to be corrected. It's open to interpretation..#dealwithit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Wow heavy rain. Just buckets and buckets of huge drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Well then when I watch live at 5:00..I'll expect to see you with all day pouring rain symbol Saturday. You always say one thing on here..then when I see tv it's totally different. We have mostly cloudy with showers in the forecast now. Could it wind up being a cloudy, rainy, gross day with the front stalled to the south? Most definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 We have mostly cloudy with showers in the forecast now. Could it wind up being a cloudy, rainy, gross day with the front stalled to the south? Most definitely. Could it wind up being party/mostly sunny with no rain either? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Could it wind up being party/mostly sunny with no rain either? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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