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Model discussion for May


Ginx snewx

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I wondered what model would be first to back off on the southward extend of the 0C 850 mb isotherm mid week... GGEM wants us to believe we're N of -2!    But this Euro nicks at this point...backing off some 1 or 2.  I suspect that may continue.  

 

Looks to me like 4 days of superb outdoorsy weather mid week through the end of the Euro run, which I happen to think is more believable than any GFS run since ...early March.  We'll see. 

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And no rain

 D8 - 10 starts in with elevating DPs so maybe convection could kick in... We aren't under the core of the heights so inhibition shouldn't be out of control...  

 

speculation at this range, notwithstanding...

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I wondered what model would be first to back off on the southward extend of the 0C 850 mb isotherm mid week... GGEM wants us to believe we're N of -2!    But this Euro nicks at this point...backing off some 1 or 2.  I suspect that may continue.  

 

Looks to me like 4 days of superb outdoorsy weather mid week through the end of the Euro run, which I happen to think is more believable than any GFS run since ...early March.  We'll see. 

 

A beast of a high pressure building in next week on all models.  That has high diurnal swings written all over it.

 

"Brochure" type weather where you have deep blue skies, great visibility with no haze, puffy cumulus floating around...

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A beast of a high pressure building in next week on all models.  That has high diurnal swings written all over it.

 

"Brochure" type weather where you have deep blue skies, great visibility with no haze, puffy cumulus floating around...

 

Exactly... meanwhile:

 

/O.CAN.KUNR.WS.W.0003.150510T0000Z-150511T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KUNR.BZ.W.0001.150510T0000Z-150511T0000Z/

BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-

SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLE FOURCHE...FAITH...WALL...

UNION CENTER

241 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT

SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT

SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE

THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH

ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE TO 30

TO 40 MPH FOR SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH WILL OCCUR

THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

* MAIN HAZARD...9 TO 15 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE

STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS FROM HEAVY SNOW AND

BLOWING SNOW. THE HEAVY SNOW COULD ALSO DOWN TREE BRANCHES WHICH

MAY RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. THE SNOW AND WIND WILL LEAVE

CALVES AND LAMBS VULNERABLE TO HYPOTHERMIA.

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 D8 - 10 starts in with elevating DPs so maybe convection could kick in... We aren't under the core of the heights so inhibition shouldn't be out of control...  

 

speculation at this range, notwithstanding...

I was hoping models would start increasing qpf for Tuesday..but they've pretty much taken it all away in SNE..all dynamics north

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Keeps the mosquito population from exploding though so there's that.

 

 

Yeah easy trade off...we'd have to go another 6 weeks without rain for drought to really be an issue anyway. New England droughts are even harder to escalate than our severe wx.

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Yeah easy trade off...we'd have to go another 6 weeks without rain for drought to really be an issue anyway. New England droughts are even harder to escalate than our severe wx.

 

I was traveling with one of my co-workers (based in Iowa).  I had mentioned the word 'drought' and quickly pointed out that when we talk about droughts here in the northeast, we really don't know what we're talking about.  She laughed knowing exactly what I was referring to.

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Considering how I've done the last few weeks..I don't think you have any room to say a thing to me.. I don't see a cool pattern at all. I see 2-3 days of potential 90 again early next week

 

I never said cool. Your calls have been over the top as usual. I know your thermometer reads too cold, but you can't always justify calls by using ORH in the winter and an inaccurate BDL thermometer in the summer. 

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Interesting though, BAF was the hotspot yesterday and many sights hit 90. Kevin's agressive calls were reasonable yesterday but Friday 90 was only very localized and Saturday he was too warm. Regardless, its been hot in this valley and I can understand people out this way wanting to put in AC. but in most cases people probably waited, seeing extended forecast highs in the 60s and 70 s for later this week.

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