Typhoon Tip Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Ana makes things interesting early next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 20 degrees cooler by the feel vs 8am. I like it warm to hot. On the plus side those ladies not holding their skirts down may get a surprise in the stiff NE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Regression for all of those wet years? Hopefully it's subny and dry all warm season. I want to see my lawn cracking under the drought. Blasphemy. Although when I was a teenager, I loved seeing ext periods of dry 95/69 down in the MidAtl and my parents lawn scorching into hay. Still one of fondest young wx weenie memories is when PHL had a heat Index of 130*-- Summer of 95 I think? sometime in the early 90s. I remember it vividly because I was watching TWC and Dave Schwartz was having a conniption over the reading--he was going nuts. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Euro's got a 2 day mild down to normal Wed-TH next week and then we torch right back again by next weekend and beyond. Impressive warm anomalies coming this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Tomorrow looking good .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY... THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY STRATUS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY MIXES OUT. EXPECT INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO QUICKLY BREAK OUT INTO PARTIAL SUNSHINE DURING MID/LATE MORNING...BUT THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOWER ALONG THE S COAST AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE INTERIOR WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 So how far SW does this BDCF actually get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Euro's got a 2 day mild down to normal Wed-TH next week and then we torch right back again by next weekend and beyond. Impressive warm anomalies coming this month If that verifies, we're going to make a run at one of the warmer and drier May's of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Blasphemy. Although when I was a teenager, I loved seeing ext periods of dry 95/69 down in the MidAtl and my parents lawn scorching into hay. Still one of fondest young wx weenie memories is when PHL had a heat Index of 130*-- Summer of 95 I think? sometime in the early 90s. I remember it vividly because I was watching TWC and Dave Schwartz was having a conniption over the reading--he was going nuts. lol Yeah I remember that. Had to have been 7/14/95 or 7/15. 7/14 was the scorcher up here. CON 101 and MHT 104. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 8, 2015 Author Share Posted May 8, 2015 Tomorrow looking good .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY... THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY STRATUS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY MIXES OUT. EXPECT INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO QUICKLY BREAK OUT INTO PARTIAL SUNSHINE DURING MID/LATE MORNING...BUT THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOWER ALONG THE S COAST AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE INTERIOR WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE CT see they dropped that foolish 90 stuff for tomorrow they had on all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Hey Brian ... you were mentioning one of the hi res models with a meso low -- if you loop this image you can see the low clouds are in fact rotating around an axis centered roughly over the Cape: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 So how far SW does this BDCF actually get? It may continue to inch/ooze/trickle into interior CT townships but by and large the main momentum is shutting down. Wouldn't know it by looking at the current sfc analysis with high pressure still building SE through the GOM -- usually that means it rumbles into the upper MA minimum... But latest obs and modeling combined want to go stationary over the next 3 years... Then it washes out during heat up tomorrow morning from SW to NE at about the same rate as it came in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Hey Brian ... you were mentioning one of the hi res models with a meso low -- if you loop this image you can see the low clouds are in fact rotating around an axis centered roughly over the Cape: mlow.jpg Nice. Models seem to hang the circulation around offshore overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Looks like CT may be the SNE cool spot tomorrow with some southerly flow maritime taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Looks like another backdoor here Monday...this one may not be as pretty. Mid-late week looks beautiful with more COC days with that sprawling high building in just to our W and then S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Looks like another backdoor here Monday...this one may not be as pretty. Mid-late week looks beautiful with more COC days with that sprawling high building in just to our W and then S. How far south you think? More NNE? OR NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 How far south you think? More NNE? OR NYC?Maybe something similar to yest where CT gets spared? It's 48hrs away so there's time for it to change, but all models seem to stall it out in a similar spot as yesterday. We could get a bit wet up here so we'll see if that accelerates the boundary any. The euro builds in a little weenie nose of high pressure into the GOM midday Monday too. I expect a full dead ratter up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Maybe something similar to yest where CT gets spared? It's 48hrs away so there's time for it to change, but all models seem to stall it out in a similar spot as yesterday. We could get a bit wet up here so we'll see if that accelerates the boundary any. The euro builds in a little weenie nose of high pressure into the GOM midday Monday too. I expect a full dead ratter up here. Wouldn't Ana have something to say about that? That's the whole reason the cold front has gotten pushed back to Tuesday night/Wed..Seems like Ana would help keep any boundaries north..(at least i would think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Still not sold on much rain in my area next week, although I'm hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Still not sold on much rain in my area next week, although I'm hoping. I agree.. I don't think any of us in SNE see much if any with the front as Ana robs all moisture. BOX going hog wild..seems unlikely HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES /DEWPTS RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS/...DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY CAUSE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO N CENTRAL CT DURING MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE WELL INLAND WHERE K INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S. COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY...SLOWLY WORK OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...BUDGING THE BLOCKING RIDGE AS THE REMNANTS OF ANA ALSO START TO SHIFT E-NE MONDAY NIGHT-TUE. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MON NIGHT AND DURING TUE AS COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS. BEST INSTABILITY ALSO IN PLACE...SO THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S COAST. HAVE MENTIONED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. INCREASED HUMIDITY AND PWAT/S OVER 1.5 INCHES MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WHICH MAY TRAIN ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT IF THEY ORGANIZE NEAR OR AHEAD OF IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Still not sold on much rain in my area next week, although I'm hoping. Yeah here too. This dry stretch is pretty impressive. If we go through D10 with nothing.... Ughhhhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Yeah here too. This dry stretch is pretty impressive. If we go through D10 with nothing.... Ughhhhh. I love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Yeah here too. This dry stretch is pretty impressive. If we go through D10 with nothing.... Ughhhhh. That would be an epic stretch, 4/22-5/19 with close to nothing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I love it Why would anyone love drought, pollen and plants and lawns suffering? I don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Why would anyone love drought, pollen and plants and lawns suffering? I don't get it Well first of all, its spring, there is pollen every year and that has nothing to do with drought, 2nd there is no drought just dry, huge huge difference. Lawns , meh its just grass, plants and flowers look great, doesn't seem to be bothering them in fact the Dogwood and Cherry blooms are spectacular this year. You are a drama queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Well first of all, its spring, there is pollen every year and that has nothing to do with drought, 2nd there is no drought just dry, huge huge difference. Lawns , meh its just grass, plants and flowers look great, doesn't seem to be bothering them in fact the Dogwood and Cherry blooms are spectacular this year. You are a drama queen. I'm with you on this one. It would have to be a pretty darn huge drought to make a difference to most folks. Really all it means is suburban lawns need constant watering or they risk ridicule from neighbors, haha. It's not like people are drying of thirst and our natural environment here in New England can put up with a lot of stress before it folds. A dry month or two in the summer isn't causing long term damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Nah, Ana's not sufficiently large enough to usurp the general synoptic evolution... Which entails rising DPs. All this strata and fog that manage to materialized in the cold sector behind this BD, despite the antecedent dry air ... shows that moisture is arriving. DPs are already 45-50 when mixed. By the way, it was almost amusing to wake up and see the BD having wended its way circuitously around CT too - Fooled even me! I was starting to buy into the idea of momentum running out last evening ... But then again, I looked at the current temps and they had plummeted to the upper 40s everywhere E of EEN/ORH and I'm thinking that's way unstable for 70 at HFD! Plus, we had actual wind still puffin' away from the NE (around 10 pm). Can't help but rub it in a little ... so Kevin, you still glad you don't live back east. Ah hahahahaha. Today's temperatures are going to be interesting ... There doesn't seem to be much mid and high level clouds around to "cap" the BD event/air mass from yesterdate, so it's pure insolation vs a mere 200 mb air mass. 850s obviously support soaring to 88, but there's no way without some gradient that this NW Atlantic puke can warm a mixing depth that tall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 wow, incredible turn around out there... It was 53 F and cloudy 1.25 hours ago, now, partly sunny and 63 with newly arriving SSW wind. Amazing last 24 hours. It was 77 F here yesterday in Ayer when that BD arrived... It struggled to hold out against the arriving chill and hung around 73 for an hour, but then ... nick nick nick all afternoon lopped degrees, and at dusk it had crashed to 52 F !! Classic sensible whiplash BD. In fact when I crashed at 1 am or so it was all the way down to 46. Now, I would not be surprised if we soar to 77 by 5 pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Finally got around to looking but man, that's one epic off-the-charts string of top 10 days offered up by the 00z operational Euro, days 6 through 10. Dry unfortunately, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Finally got around to looking but man, that's one epic off-the-charts string of top 10 days offered up by the 00z operational Euro, days 6 through 10. Dry unfortunately, but... What seems to be happening is the dry ground is starting to feedback, increasing dryness, but more importantly making temps warmer than they would normally be. Should that continue. Serious water issues this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 What seems to be happening is the dry ground is starting to feedback, increasing dryness, but more importantly making temps warmer than they would normally be. Should that continue. Serious water issues this summer Meh...it's still mostly synoptic season. I worry more about feedback dryness when convection season ramps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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