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Model discussion for May


Ginx snewx

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Regression for all of those wet years? Hopefully it's subny and dry all warm season. I want to see my lawn cracking under the drought.

 

Blasphemy.

 

Although when I was a teenager, I loved seeing ext periods of dry 95/69 down in the MidAtl and my parents lawn scorching into hay. Still one of fondest young wx weenie memories is when PHL had a heat Index of 130*-- Summer of 95 I think? sometime in the early 90s. I remember it vividly because I was watching TWC and Dave Schwartz was having a conniption over the reading--he was going nuts.  lol 

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Tomorrow looking good

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY STRATUS AND FOG WILL

DISSIPATE...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY MIXES OUT. EXPECT

INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO QUICKLY BREAK OUT INTO PARTIAL SUNSHINE

DURING MID/LATE MORNING...BUT THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOWER ALONG

THE S COAST AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW

TURNS SOUTHERLY. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS

THE ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE INTERIOR WITH

SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE CT

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Euro's got a 2 day mild down to normal Wed-TH next week and then we torch right back again by next weekend and beyond. Impressive warm anomalies coming this month

If that verifies, we're going to make a run at one of the warmer and drier May's of all time.

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Blasphemy.

Although when I was a teenager, I loved seeing ext periods of dry 95/69 down in the MidAtl and my parents lawn scorching into hay. Still one of fondest young wx weenie memories is when PHL had a heat Index of 130*-- Summer of 95 I think? sometime in the early 90s. I remember it vividly because I was watching TWC and Dave Schwartz was having a conniption over the reading--he was going nuts. lol

Yeah I remember that. Had to have been 7/14/95 or 7/15. 7/14 was the scorcher up here. CON 101 and MHT 104.
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Tomorrow looking good

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY STRATUS AND FOG WILL

DISSIPATE...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY MIXES OUT. EXPECT

INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO QUICKLY BREAK OUT INTO PARTIAL SUNSHINE

DURING MID/LATE MORNING...BUT THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOWER ALONG

THE S COAST AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW

TURNS SOUTHERLY. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS

THE ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE INTERIOR WITH

SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE CT

see they dropped that foolish 90 stuff for tomorrow they had on all week

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So how far SW does this BDCF actually get? 

 

It may continue to inch/ooze/trickle into interior CT townships but by and large the main momentum is shutting down. 

 

Wouldn't know it by looking at the current sfc analysis with high pressure still building SE through the GOM -- usually that means it rumbles into the upper MA minimum... But latest obs and modeling combined want to go stationary over the next 3 years... 

 

Then it washes out during heat up tomorrow morning from SW to NE at about the same rate as it came in

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Hey Brian ... you were mentioning one of the hi res models with a meso low --

 

if you loop this image you can see the low clouds are in fact rotating around an axis centered roughly over the Cape:

 

attachicon.gifmlow.jpg

Nice. Models seem to hang the circulation around offshore overnight.

post-3-0-66358400-1431127877_thumb.jpg

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How far south you think? More NNE? OR NYC?

Maybe something similar to yest where CT gets spared? It's 48hrs away so there's time for it to change, but all models seem to stall it out in a similar spot as yesterday. We could get a bit wet up here so we'll see if that accelerates the boundary any. The euro builds in a little weenie nose of high pressure into the GOM midday Monday too. I expect a full dead ratter up here.
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Maybe something similar to yest where CT gets spared? It's 48hrs away so there's time for it to change, but all models seem to stall it out in a similar spot as yesterday. We could get a bit wet up here so we'll see if that accelerates the boundary any. The euro builds in a little weenie nose of high pressure into the GOM midday Monday too. I expect a full dead ratter up here.

 Wouldn't Ana have something to say about that? That's the whole reason the cold front has gotten pushed back to Tuesday night/Wed..Seems like Ana would help keep any boundaries north..(at least i would think)

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Still not sold on much rain in my area next week, although I'm hoping.

I agree.. I don't think any of us in SNE see much if any with the front as Ana robs all moisture. BOX going hog wild..seems unlikely

 

HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES

/DEWPTS RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND

SOUTHERN AREAS/...DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY CAUSE A FEW STRAY

SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL

AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO N CENTRAL CT DURING MONDAY/MONDAY

EVENING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE WELL INLAND WHERE K INDICES ARE

FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S.

COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY...SLOWLY WORK OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO

VALLEY...BUDGING THE BLOCKING RIDGE AS THE REMNANTS OF ANA ALSO

START TO SHIFT E-NE MONDAY NIGHT-TUE. 

BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MON NIGHT

AND DURING TUE AS COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS. BEST INSTABILITY ALSO

IN PLACE...SO THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY

AWAY FROM THE S COAST. HAVE MENTIONED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. INCREASED HUMIDITY AND PWAT/S OVER 1.5

INCHES MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WHICH MAY

TRAIN ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT IF THEY ORGANIZE NEAR OR AHEAD

OF IT.

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Why would anyone love drought, pollen and plants and lawns suffering? I don't get it

Well first of all, its spring, there is pollen every year and that has nothing to do with drought, 2nd there is no drought just dry, huge huge difference. Lawns , meh its just grass, plants and flowers look great, doesn't seem to be bothering them in fact the Dogwood and Cherry blooms are spectacular this year. You are a drama queen.

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Well first of all, its spring, there is pollen every year and that has nothing to do with drought, 2nd there is no drought just dry, huge huge difference. Lawns , meh its just grass, plants and flowers look great, doesn't seem to be bothering them in fact the Dogwood and Cherry blooms are spectacular this year. You are a drama queen.

I'm with you on this one. It would have to be a pretty darn huge drought to make a difference to most folks. Really all it means is suburban lawns need constant watering or they risk ridicule from neighbors, haha. It's not like people are drying of thirst and our natural environment here in New England can put up with a lot of stress before it folds. A dry month or two in the summer isn't causing long term damage.

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Nah, Ana's not sufficiently large enough to usurp the general synoptic evolution...

 

Which entails rising DPs.  All this strata and fog that manage to materialized in the cold sector behind this BD, despite the antecedent dry air ... shows that moisture is arriving. DPs are already 45-50 when mixed.   

 

By the way, it was almost amusing to wake up and see the BD having wended its way circuitously around CT too -  

 

post-904-0-66727400-1431182828_thumb.jpg

 

Fooled even me! I was starting to buy into the idea of momentum running out last evening ... But then again, I looked at the current temps and they had plummeted to the upper 40s everywhere E of EEN/ORH and I'm thinking that's way unstable for 70 at HFD! Plus, we had actual wind still puffin' away from the NE (around 10 pm).  

 

Can't help but rub it in a little ... so Kevin, you still glad you don't live back east.  Ah hahahahaha.  

 

Today's temperatures are going to be interesting ... There doesn't seem to be much mid and high level clouds around to "cap" the BD event/air mass from yesterdate, so it's pure insolation vs a mere 200 mb air mass.  850s obviously support soaring to 88, but there's no way without some gradient that this NW Atlantic puke can warm a mixing depth that tall. 

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wow, incredible turn around out there... It was 53 F and cloudy 1.25 hours ago, now, partly sunny and 63 with newly arriving SSW wind.  

 

Amazing last 24 hours.  It was 77 F here yesterday in Ayer when that BD arrived... It struggled to hold out against the arriving chill and hung around 73 for an hour, but then ... nick nick nick all afternoon lopped degrees, and at dusk it had crashed to 52 F !!  Classic sensible whiplash BD. In fact when I crashed at 1 am or so it was all the way down to 46.  

 

Now, I would not be surprised if we soar to 77 by 5 pm... 

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Finally got around to looking but man, that's one epic off-the-charts string of top 10 days offered up by the 00z operational Euro, days 6 through 10.

Dry unfortunately, but...

What seems to be happening is the dry ground is starting to feedback, increasing dryness, but more importantly making temps warmer than they would normally be. Should that continue. Serious water issues this summer
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What seems to be happening is the dry ground is starting to feedback, increasing dryness, but more importantly making temps warmer than they would normally be. Should that continue. Serious water issues this summer

Meh...it's still mostly synoptic season. I worry more about feedback dryness when convection season ramps up.

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