Brian5671 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Probably holds off until around sunset anyway - but we'll see. It wouldn't surprise me if it really trucked west. Either way crappy weather as the winds shift by Saturday AM. They usually end up further S and W than modeled, so makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 All the models sort of wash out that backdoor and turn Saturday into a bit of a suckfest with S-SE flow and a pretty stout marine layer. While Friday should be great out here as wind shift and moisture advection gets cranking I see Saturday getting worse and worse. Dan Brown isn't buying it........http://www.westernmassnews.com/category/214961/7-day-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Euro had some decent rain next week. We can hope that pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Yeah but will my backyard backdoor? I'm sitting on the edge, hopefully it washes out and can't make it past the east slopes of the hills. Hubby could be laying on beach chair in the driveway while soaking up rays and sipping on parrot bay while I'm stuck in graypril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Yeah as I said yesterday ... a lot of graphics had that boundary hung up Essex to Plymouth and not moving W... riiiiight. I'm on the fence with Saturday though. I don't think that whole day is a loss... If the boundary in question is shallow...there won't be a whole production of having to turn the gradient around in pain staking fashion, such that we warm sector at sunset and the whole day was successfully stolen... That's usually more for larger synoptically driven BD. This is a weak front with a cold assist by very cold SST still lurking... It may come in harsh for eastern/NE zones, but 52 at Cape Ann is probably 76 at HFD type deal.. I think Saturday dawns calm out that way with wind tending to wobble flags from the SW as gossamer strata burns off. Even in the E I bet it all turns right back around by 2 or 3.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Officially in drought in early May. Hopefully Will is right about Euro and good rain next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Well I am correct that the Euro had good rain...that is a fact. Whether it comes to fruition or not is something I haven't speculated on. It is too far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 7, 2015 Author Share Posted May 7, 2015 Officially in drought in early May. Hopefully Will is right about Euro and good rain next week. hmm, legend says abnormally dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 hmm, legend says abnormally dry Also says: "Population Affected by Drought: 0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 7, 2015 Author Share Posted May 7, 2015 Also says: "Population Affected by Drought: 0" lol missed that, we laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Just looking at the NAM... That's a classic SNE butt-bang for warm weather. Could see one of those sinuous rad echoes side-winding its way SW during the morning hours tomorrow. There is likely to be a fog bank and/or strata piling into NE zone ...particularly mid to late afternoon after the suns passed zenith, but the sun in the interior will offset for a while and burn that off until dark... But that means business folks. That's +7 C at 1000 mb at Logan come Saturday at 10 Z ...talking 45 F (brrr, comparatively), and given to the 95% + RH, it's probably solid low cloud and some mist. In fact, temps tumbling through the 50s with ease over the coastal locales earlier tomorrow, while it's 86 at ALB! Even ALB juuust gets kissed by it during the overnight tomorrow night. But already, the wind is around to 210 during early afternoon Saturday at Logan, which means that places in the interior (ORH-ASH) would turn around pretty quickly that day. I suspected this earlier, the question is ...does the mandatory extra 6 hours apply? In any event, what makes these BD things so weird is that if you look at the 500 mb height evolution through late Saturday, the boundary actually wends its way up under the ridge core... It seems it can do that physically, which is what makes this part of the geography so interesting. It's like the atmosphere is split around the boundary pause, where above and below take on on disparate synoptic evolutions. Because the mid levels would not by any stretch support any kind of boundary moving SW across the area; yet it will slice into the lower 200 or so MB of lower troposphere and create a whole different ball-park of sensible weather. If you are in N shore at the seacoast later tomorrow afternoon, you're seeing your breath in sweat-shirts, geans and jackets, with seagull song cutting through the smell of cold salt. Meanwhile ... Kevin's pretending the BD isn't that big of a deal because it hasn't gotten to his particular hill in Ct just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Just looking at the NAM... That's a classic SNE butt-bang for warm weather. Could see one of those sinuous rad echoes side-winding its way SW during the morning hours tomorrow. There is likely to be a fog bank and/or strata piling into NE zone ...particularly mid to late afternoon after the suns passed zenith, but the sun in the interior will offset for a while and burn that off until dark... But that means business folks. That's +7 C at 1000 mb at Logan come Saturday at 10 Z ...talking 45 F (brrr, comparatively), and given to the 95% + RH, it's probably solid low cloud and some mist. In fact, temps tumbling through the 50s with ease over the coastal locales earlier tomorrow, while it's 86 at ALB! Even ALB juuust gets kissed by it during the overnight tomorrow night. But already, the wind is around to 210 during early afternoon Saturday at Logan, which means that places in the interior (ORH-ASH) would turn around pretty quickly that day. I suspected this earlier, the question is ...does the mandatory extra 6 hours apply? In any event, what makes these BD things so weird is that if you look at the 500 mb height evolution through late Saturday, the boundary actually wends its way up under the ridge core... It seems it can do that physically, which is what makes this part of the geography so interesting. It's like the atmosphere is split around the boundary pause, where above and below take on on disparate synoptic evolutions. Because the mid levels would not by any stretch support any kind of boundary moving SW across the area; yet it will slice into the lower 200 or so MB of lower troposphere and create a whole different ball-park of sensible weather. If you are in N shore at the seacoast later tomorrow afternoon, you're seeing your breath in sweat-shirts, geans and jackets, with seagull song cutting through the smell of cold salt. Meanwhile ... Kevin's pretending the BD isn't that big of a deal because it hasn't gotten to his particular hill in Ct just yet. He also downslopes on northeast winds which he'll never admit. However when the wind turns SSE Saturday, he'll upslope that marine layer right into his street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I'm not worried about being backdoored with 50 and east winds. It prob will show up here on radar as a wind shift ,, but not until it's hit 85 tomorrow and it makes it this far west late evening or something. Saturday dawns foggy and slightly muggy and by 10:00 sun is out with Bermuda blues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 He also downslopes on northeast winds which he'll never admit. However when the wind turns SSE Saturday, he'll upslope that marine layer right into his street. Saturday might be warmest up in interior CNE with the wind direction being modeled SSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 He also downslopes on northeast winds which he'll never admit. However when the wind turns SSE Saturday, he'll upslope that marine layer right into his street.So you are saying Saturday is cool cloudy all day? Just want to make sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 tuesday looks good for potential 90's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 So you are saying Saturday is cool cloudy all day? Just want to make sure I'm saying Saturday could be rather cloudy until maybe late day...actually looks worse where you are as thrust of warmer air just off the deck is more in CT. I don't think it will be that cool like in the 50s or anyhting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I'm saying Saturday could be rather cloudy until maybe late day...actually looks worse where you are as thrust of warmer air just off the deck is more in CT. I don't think it will be that cool like in the 50s or anyhting. Cloudy and 70s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I don't think that pessimism for Saturday is really there, tho - Like I said, it's S ...and only 5 to 10 kts at Logan by 2pm Saturday... With very low RH just above the boundary layer and very hot sun at this time of year, I suggest that the interior can warm back up in a hurry on Saturday. But no one asked... just saying. I think the bigger headline is a the push tomorrow -- if things break the way currently modeled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Cloudy and 70s? 75/73? LOL, Maybe like that moist 65F kind of stuff there? I guess it just depends on sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I don't think that pessimism for Saturday is really there, tho - Like I said, it's S ...and only 5 to 10 kts at Logan by 2pm Saturday... With very low RH just above the boundary layer and very hot sun at this time of year, I suggest that the interior can warm back up in a hurry on Saturday. But no one asked... just saying. I think the bigger headline is a the push tomorrow -- if things break the way currently modeled... It could be something that burns off for sure. But with pretty good dews trying to work in with waters in the U40s..may be stubborn in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 It could be something that burns off for sure. But with pretty good dews trying to work in with waters in the U40s..may be stubborn in spots. Especially closer to the coast... sure. Might be a late high scenario at Logan. Those are kinda of interesting... It's struggling to get up to 60 through 5 pm, then...all at once, the wind veers and they spike to 84 at 6 or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Deep summer continues it seems almost unabated aside from 2 days of normal next week. Wow Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 4m 4 minutes agoStamford, CT ECMWF EPS showing a strong signature of another round of eastern U.S. heat just following the turn of mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Uh-oh Kevin @TollandKev 1m1 minute ago @MJVentrice You wonder if the drought/dry conditions is going to start feeding back increasing temps in the east from now thru summer season Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 10s10 seconds agoStamford, CT @TollandKev Great Point. Looks like we are moving into a dry pattern for the East with TX floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Uh-oh Kevin @TollandKev 1m1 minute ago @MJVentrice You wonder if the drought/dry conditions is going to start feeding back increasing temps in the east from now thru summer season Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 10s10 seconds agoStamford, CT @TollandKev Great Point. Looks like we are moving into a dry pattern for the East with TX floods. 3. JoeBlow@ 1 Everyone m1 minute ago @MJVentrice Don't you know that numb-nut? Why do you give him time?? 4. Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 10s10 seconds agoStamford, CT @Everyone Hmm, also a good point. I got to stop eroding my cred by exposing my association to Connecticut hill people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 HIRESmodels are showing a little mesolow feature offshore meandering around IOSN3 through Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 RIght...anyway imaginable to take all of saturday out of the weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Euro backed off on rain next week. And now has highs around 70 for the "cool down " mid week. All joking aside .. This dry pattern is not good. When they set up early like this, it can really start to create problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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