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Model discussion for May


Ginx snewx

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In any event ...

 

Day's look above to well above normal, and lows normal to slightly above normal.. But I think the nocturnal component gets richer as the week goes on... DPs should steadily climb.  

 

About D6 is the next bona fide house cleaner fropa, but I would not bet on the depth of that cold incursion -- the trend over the last several since the onset of this warm pattern (featuring tendency for ridge residency SE) has been to dumb them down passing mid ranges inward in time. We'll see.   

 

The backdoor idea for Friday is real to me though, and while at the gym I saw a lot of evening mets on the television trying to hang that sucker up Essex S through Plymouth, with no much west penetration.  Heh, at this time of year and given to hydrostatic balancing acts they may not want to get too cute like that.  We'll see there, too...

 

But I think by mid Saturday there's enough mechanics and so forth to turn whatever comes of that around and gone, with WSW continental seasonal heat.  Sunday could be the first real "Uncomfortable" day... Could see the MOS DPs too low under 87 F

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In any event ...

 

Day's look above to well above normal, and lows normal to slightly above normal.. But I think the nocturnal component gets richer as the week goes on... DPs should steadily climb.  

 

About D6 is the next bona fide house cleaner fropa, but I would not bet on the depth of that cold incursion -- the trend over the last several since the onset of this warm pattern (featuring tendency for ridge residency SE) has been to dumb them down passing mid ranges inward in time. We'll see.   

 

The backdoor idea for Friday is real to me though, and while at the gym I saw a lot of evening mets on the television trying to hang that sucker up Essex S through Plymouth, with no much west penetration.  Heh, at this time of year and given to hydrostatic balancing acts they may not want to get too cute like that.  We'll see there, too...

 

But I think by mid Saturday there's enough mechanics and so forth to turn whatever comes of that around and gone, with WSW continental seasonal heat.  Sunday could be the first real "Uncomfortable" day... Could see the MOS DPs too low under 87 F

agreed, definitely something to watch ORH east 

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NAM backdoors to Albany tomorrow.

 

All the models sort of wash out that backdoor and turn Saturday into a bit of a suckfest with S-SE flow and a pretty stout marine layer. While Friday should be great out here as wind shift and moisture advection gets cranking I see Saturday getting worse and worse. 

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All the models sort of wash out that backdoor and turn Saturday into a bit of a suckfest with S-SE flow and a pretty stout marine layer. While Friday should be great out here as wind shift and moisture advection gets cranking I see Saturday getting worse and worse. 

Even down this way?

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All the models sort of wash out that backdoor and turn Saturday into a bit of a suckfest with S-SE flow and a pretty stout marine layer. While Friday should be great out here as wind shift and moisture advection gets cranking I see Saturday getting worse and worse. 

 

Yeah I could see that. Blah.

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It's not going to make it west of ORH with 50's..Why would it?

 

Probably holds off until around sunset anyway - but we'll see. It wouldn't surprise me if it really trucked west.

Either way crappy weather as the winds shift by Saturday AM. 

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