Typhoon Tip Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Wow. That is a cold shot at the end of the euro run. I'll bet you a beer at the next get together that's not on the 00z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Yeah perhaps if we can get s/w in there. Doesn't strike me as a textbook setup though. Don't need much of a trigger for self-propagating clusters though. You just need that balanced geostrophic flow with a moisture tongue underneath at 850... Just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 I'll bet you a beer at the next get together that's not on the 00z run... GFS has something too, but not like that. Maybe Ginxy's recurving Typhoons will help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Nothing but heat thru day 10. What a pattern we've entered .wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 GFS has something too, but not like that. Maybe Ginxy's recurving Typhoons will help out. It's forecast to become a beast but ... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=06W&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0 not sure where CIMSS gets the positions... Japan Met ? Anyway, as the PNA begins to fade its correlation, that recurving correlations fades along with it. It has to -- think about it mathematically: tropical forcing enhances R-wave geometry, so if the R-wave configuration changes with the season, the former has to break-down. My only issue is that I have pretty much never bought a D9 amplitude on the Euro and been right 100% of the time - heh. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 It's forecast to become a beast but ... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=06W&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0 not sure where CIMSS gets the positions... Japan Met ? Anyway, as the PNA begins to fade its correlation, that recurving correlations fades along with it. It has to -- think about it mathematically: tropical forcing enhances R-wave geometry, so if the R-wave configuration changes with the season, the former has to break-down. My only issue is that I have pretty much never bought a D9 amplitude on the Euro and been right 100% of the time - heh. We'll see. Oh yeah one wouldn't expect the type of scenario to pan out if this were 2-3 months earlier. But if we get a mass flux into AK, we'll probably get some results in the form of a trough. Of course, one would expect a more benign outcome this time of year instead of an arctic outbreak. Anyways, that's getting ahead of ourselves. At some point, rain would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Oh yeah one wouldn't expect the type of scenario to pan out if this were 2-3 months earlier. But if we get a mass flux into AK, we'll probably get some results in the form of a trough. Of course, one would expect a more benign outcome this time of year instead of an arctic outbreak. Anyways, that's getting ahead of ourselves. At some point, rain would be nice. I admit ... I wasn't as thrilled as you all the other day with the dry aspect but I'm having second thoughts on that specific ... I think, though, there is a fair shot at some decent convective rains when the weekend heat breaks... Also, should that ...TC get absorbed... But I tell you what... if that fails... could be a sign that these troughs are more apt to bounce off the SE ridge like a rock skipping off a pond ... yeah, we may get into a bit a dryness issue if that becomes the dominant signal throughout the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Drought drums really seem to be getting closer as we move over next few weeks. Sometimes you get a dry ground feedback which further exacerbated the dryness and heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 4, 2015 Author Share Posted May 4, 2015 Drought drums really seem to be getting closer as we move over next few weeks. Sometimes you get a dry ground feedback which further exacerbated the dryness and heatdefinitely need some rain for the flowers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Deep deep summer. Backdoor FTL @BradNBCCT: who's ready for summer? share this if you're excited about more 80° weather (without humidity)! #FirstAlertCT http://t.co/hDvqekzglA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 I think it's pretty interesting that a few of the models started spinning up a circulation off the SE mainland like that some 9 days ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 It's here for good and it's spectacular HIGHLIGHTS... * SPRING TO SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Congrats Maine on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Might have some needed rain next week as the GFS and Euro try to hang the front up nearby with low pressure near and south of us perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Might have some needed rain next week as the GFS and Euro try to hang the front up nearby with low pressure near and south of us perhaps. Might not too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Might have some needed rain next week as the GFS and Euro try to hang the front up nearby with low pressure near and south of us perhaps. Might not too lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Man .. If DT is right we are locked in this pattern right thru the whole month http://www.wxrisk.com/ana-and-the-polar-vortex/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Man .. If DT is right we are locked in this pattern right thru the whole month http://www.wxrisk.com/ana-and-the-polar-vortex/ Right ... in other words, Next ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Friday BD taints on this Euro... Comes in shallow but sharp into NE zone early Friday, then loses identity/washes out during the day, but not before it dents T's back (probably) some 20 F for Essex... SE NH... Everyone return flow heats up for Saturday and Sunday. Thing is, with SSTs so comparatively cold, any BD that's toting along air modulated by SSTs would be colder air then the total thickness would suggest ... strata shreds overhead with Scott fog just off-shore. Hm. Almost reminds me of the spring I lived in Rockport. 70 and then the smell of the sea cut in and lopped huge chunks of temperature off. The harbor would go from glass to ripple chops, as small skiffs and sail boats turned in their moorings to agree with the onshore breeze. It never steadily increased; it always organized into a wall. 70, then 48 with goose bumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 It's almost like ... in the summer, the GFS can't lose it's bully-tactical N-stream assault tendencies, and just sort of "ends up" with too much carving into the OV ...which goes on to bias that run away from EC warmups (in the summer). Contrasting, the Euro's amplitude bias in the winter relaxes in the summer, such that as a default ...less so design, the two models end up switching places in their respective error personalities. I just don't see the GFS solution with any confidence... It's like it just couldn't wait with lube and kleenex to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Sat and Sun will be our first legit 2 roll TP days with dews into the 60's and 80's. Wonder if we'll get any other posters to admit they installed their AC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Sat and Sun will be our first legit 2 roll TP days with dews into the 60's and 80's. Wonder if we'll get any other posters to admit they installed their AC?I'll probably get mine in this weekend. And I usually don't take it out until October or November, just in case.The temperatures this weekend will warrant it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 I'll probably get mine in this weekend. And I usually don't take it out until October or November, just in case. The temperatures this weekend will warrant it. It will interesting to see if Scooter admits he put his in. he won't be able to deal with that stickiness this weekend at night w/o it We said the other day many upstairs of homes would be near 80 and that's exactly what has happened this week and will thru the weekend..even though some folks disagreed that would happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Mins up here will be 40s and 50s..plenty cool enough to recover from highs in the 80s. 80s and 90s aren't the problem...it's the 65-70+ mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Our probably only chance at some legit rain will probably have to come from some sort of system working up the coast and throwing some moisture into an advancing cold front or the system getting steered right up the coast and phasing with the front. Other than this the pattern just supports weakening systems/troughs as they move out of the Plains as the lows just weaken. We'll certainly have some chances for some spot showers but anything further seems pretty meh through the next 10 to perhaps 14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Sat and Sun will be our first legit 2 roll TP days with dews into the 60's and 80's. Wonder if we'll get any other posters to admit they installed their AC?I put mine in my office today.....with no cold in sight until October I figured it was time. I tried to use just the window but it wasn't cutting it. Not fun sitting in a stifling hot dusty office rolling out TP all over your keyboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 80s and 90s aren't the problem...it's the 65-70+ mins. sometimes you make me so upset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 I put mine in my office today.....with no cold in sight until October I figured it was time. I tried to use just the window but it wasn't cutting it. Not fun sitting in a stifling hot dusty office rolling out TP all over your keyboard. The funny thing is..Scooter either has his in or will put it in over the next few days and never admit it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Haven't used ac yet in any part of the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 The funny thing is..Scooter either has his in or will put it in over the next few days and never admit it The only room would be Bryce. It was 51 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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