CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 any signs of wet weather next week?There could be either along the back door front or from a fropa arriving later in the week. Better chance of rain with that fropa down by you I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Sunday looks like a backdoor. Recovers on Monday pre front then cools down again.Looks more like a coastal sea breeze issue where it doesn't affect too many other folks and real front from west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 There could be either along the back door front or from a fropa arriving later in the week. Better chance of rain with that fropa down by you I think. If we get that BDF to stall just south of us Sun/Mon then we could get a nice little rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Where are you guys seeing this backdoor cold and misery? I don't see anything that gives us 50's and NE flow. I don't see anything actually that gets inland areas below 70 until day 10. At least on the op runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Where are you guys seeing this backdoor cold and misery? I don't see anything that gives us 50's and NE flow. I don't see anything actually that gets inland areas below 70 until day 10. At least on the op runsWell it's May so obviously the KFS doesn't see a BDF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Well it's May so obviously the KFS doesn't see a BDF.But what is showing this cold ne flow you guys are talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Well it's May so obviously the KFS doesn't see a BDF. 06z GFS sort of stalled out the boundary in a spot where it would produce a decent rain event for many...Euro wasn't quite as optimal, but still a definite signal...but who knows, it could either be up in central/Northern Maine or on the south coast..esp at this lead time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 If we get that BDF to stall just south of us Sun/Mon then we could get a nice little rain event. Yeah that's our shot like the GFS has. I was referring to the scenario with the cold front in which you'd favor better instability down there, but yeah I'm hoping for the GFS scenario. Could use some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 And still no one answered my question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Looks like warmest wx yet on Friday-Saturday before we backdoor. GFSX MOS is 13 over climo for those two days, too -- that's a tough feat for 6 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 And still no one answered my question. It depends on the model, Kevin - The GGEM is about the least emphatic about that idea ...the Euro a step up, where the GFS has been an unrealistic bully with anything N-stream since the last incremental upgrade in the model -- talking late Saturday, the Euro shows a bubble high slipping through the N Gulf of Maine/Maritimes, which can't happen without drilling a boundary SW. But, it's weak enough in the overall depiction that if one is going with that midland Euro verbatim ... (neolithically incompetent to do so at this sort of time lead...), it's probably not a strata deck sort of invasion ... More like simialar sky type, with 20F lopped off for eastern zones, with flags wobbling from the E/NE. Still pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Yeah I just didn't see where this idea of 50's and cool was coming from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Yeah I just didn't see where this idea of 50's and cool was coming from I think thats because no one mentioned any specific temperatures other than it would be cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 There could be either along the back door front or from a fropa arriving later in the week. Better chance of rain with that fropa down by you I think. Thanks. We need the rain as with everything blooming they call for a lot of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Yeah I just didn't see where this idea of 50's and cool was coming from That's because you are the only one that has mentioned 50s over the past day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 That's because you are the only one that has mentioned 50s over the past day or two. All his bases are covered now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 That's because you are the only one that has mentioned 50s over the past day or two.depending on the run the euro op has had afternoon 40s/50s for some in that Sun-Mon window. If some are going to buy d10 warmth they at least have to entertain a d6-7 BDCF...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 That's because you are the only one that has mentioned 50s over the past day or two.Couple of the mets here were talking about a a cool wet rainy backdoor scenario which I was just wondering where they were seeing that . That's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 depending on the run the euro op has had afternoon 40s/50s for some in that Sun-Mon window. If some are going to buy d10 warmth they at least have to entertain a d6-7 BDCF...right? But seriously, there are probably more ways for a forecast to bust because things verify on the cold side than the opposite being true this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 But seriously, there are probably more ways for a forecast to bust because things verify on the cold side than the opposite being true this time of year. hopefully it fails. Im done with 40s and 50s for highs until november. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Couple of the mets here were talking about a a cool wet rainy backdoor scenario which I was just wondering where they were seeing that . That's all Sounds like the Euro op has it from Dendrites post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 hopefully it fails. Im done with 40s and 50s for highs until november. Zero arguments here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Sounds like the Euro op has it from Dendrites post. It's def more for CNE on the Euro...and maybe E MA...but it's semantics when it is 7 days out. It could easily be over NYC or up in N ME...so who knows for sure. GFS actually lays the frontal boundary to our south and rides ripples of low pressure along it which would give us stratiform precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 It's def more for CNE on the Euro...and maybe E MA...but it's semantics when it is 7 days out. It could easily be over NYC or up in N ME...so who knows for sure. GFS actually lays the frontal boundary to our south and rides ripples of low pressure along it which would give us stratiform precip. But that boundary looks really diffused from the synoptic panels... Not sure what other data folks are using to discern that sort of impact, but it hasn't been on the synoptic charts really ... But, again, I'm not using discrete products by any stretch - Over the years I've noted that BD air invasions don't all knock temps down the same way.. When the BD is more synoptic driven, it seems the cool down isn't quite as sudden, where the exact extent of which actually takes until the next day to be realized more fully. Contrast, when the BD sort of teams up with GOM SSTs.. It's almost like some impetus to move the air mass SW got it going, but is more modulated by SST chilling. Those are the kind when it's 83 going into the grocery store, and 64 coming back out. I almost think of shallower boundaries as being more harsh at times because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Euro backing off BD for the weekend ...at least down this way. Actually has +15 C at 850 next Sunday... talking the first 90 F if cloud and wind direction is on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Early next week seems like best chance as the front comes down. Hopefully with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Early next week seems like best chance as the front comes down. Hopefully with rain. That latter Sunday set up ... you know what that almost looks like... You have a western Lake cyclone passage with long warm front subtended clear east through Main... The flow is stationary to that boundary aloft, while being SW/WSW at the surface... With better moisture pooling by then, that "could" be interesting for nocturnal ... warm frontal triggered then moves ESE type deal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 That latter Sunday set up ... you know what that almost looks like... You have a western Lake cyclone passage with long warm front subtended clear east through Main... The flow is stationary to that boundary aloft, while being SW/WSW at the surface... With better moisture pooling by then, that "could" be interesting for nocturnal ... warm frontal triggered then moves ESE type deal... Yeah perhaps if we can get s/w in there. Doesn't strike me as a textbook setup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Wow. That is a cold shot at the end of the euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Euro backing off BD for the weekend ...at least down this way. Actually has +15 C at 850 next Sunday... talking the first 90 F if cloud and wind direction is on the same page.Good. Let's torch this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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