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Model discussion for May


Ginx snewx

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Next weekend could be warmest yet ahead of that system off the Carolinas. Over the top warmth so NNE may be warmest and then warmth comes south. 

 

The long range looks like seasonal to above with suits and ties everywhere. 850 temps mostly 6-8C.

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Where MOS is available across the interior sites in SNE we are 77 to 85, today through Tuesday.  

 

That said, since the average high on the climo apex, July 20th, is right around there within a tick or two, not sure what else to call it. It's summery.

 

It may not be a 'heat wave' per se, but heat waves aren't really a summer prerequisite.  Maybe what we really mean to say is, if this were happening in July, people would be complaining about the lack of torridity?  

 

If that's the case... meh, anyone wantonly hoping torridity on is weird.  It's also currently for the first time this year, warmer outside than inside, fwinw -

 

I for one am looking forward to the high sun and nights in the 50s getting the soil temperatures up to planting..  Obviously lettuce and peas and cool weather crops could have been in for a while now, but I'm not into growing those.  I go for toms, cukes and peps. Last year was dicey for those as we didn't get the kind of sustained heat that peppers really need at our latitude.   

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Where MOS is available across the interior sites in SNE we are 77 to 85, today through Tuesday.  

 

That said, since the average high on the climo apex, July 20th, is right around there within a tick or two, not sure what else to call it. It's summery.

 

It may not be a 'heat wave' per se, but heat waves aren't really a summer prerequisite.  Maybe what we really mean to say is, if this were happening in July, people would be complaining about the lack of torridity?  

 

If that's the case... meh, anyone wantonly hoping torridity on is weird.  It's also currently for the first time this year, warmer outside than inside, fwinw -

 

I for one am looking forward to the high sun and nights in the 50s getting the soil temperatures up to planting..  Obviously lettuce and peas and cool weather crops could have been in for a while now, but I'm not into growing those.  I go for toms, cukes and peps. Last year was dicey for those as we didn't get the kind of sustained heat that peppers really need at our latitude.   

This is as deep a  summer pattern thru day 10 we can have for May. it's sweat in the sun type stuff. houses will be near 80 in full sun

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This is as deep a  summer pattern thru day 10 we can have for May. it's sweat in the sun type stuff. houses will be near 80 in full sun

 

 

I think that's going too far Kev - but as usual ... I suspect you really know this on some level, but like to play the dramatist with this stuff.

 

Anyway, it's a weird conversation/debate, because I am not sure what is gained on either side of the discussion in terms of righteousness... I suspect those that want to downplay the summery vibe are doing the usual psycho-babble personal problem with ever admitting summer even happens here  ..  While those such as yourself, ...not sure what ur motivation really is..

 

Either way, the reality as usual is somewhere in between.  I can't be any more objective than looking at the MOS numbers and seeing the afternoon readings within a tick or two climo summer air;  I get it that the low temps and DPs may not be this or that, but first of all, that low temp arg is shaky to me. I see a lot of MOS' with 45-55F lows and that is aoa climo. (H+L)/2 = above climo, and that should be summery.  But secondly, between 10 am and ~ 6 or 7 in the evening is when the weather sensibly counts for 90% everyone, so the general public will probably be inclined to suggest this is a summer-like week.  

 

But whatever... It should be in the banter thread ;)   There's little use in reading in and above is probably written too far so let it go.. 

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I'm actually surprised there isn't a more aggressive back-door frontal event amid the panoply of guidance'

 

That's a lot of SPV/ V-Max translation ESE through the Maritimes, yet even the operational Euro has more a diffused look to the frontal tapestry mid week.  

 

I wouldn't be shocked if that corrects and/or busts a bit more aggressively with a frontal drape into the upper MA ... temporarily separating SNE from the 80 F ilk.   

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Euro still refuses to engineer a BD when it's own mid levels would support that... 

 

Interesting week depicted in the synoptics of this run... The model just seems hell-bent on making this a top 10 week.. In fact, after that weak fropa early-mid Tuesday, we still have a weak bubble-no-trouble parked enough west to prevent deep marine contamination, with 850's around +6 C, and no cloud skies...  That's like 74/48 type weather, so about perfect spring+ weather. 

Then, strong warm fropa overnight Thursday into early Friday, and it looks like that would support low 80s minimally and probably 85 in deep layer WSW continental warm sector.  Lows probably no lower than 60 those two days...  

 

Heh...not sure I trust that mid week look. Could still cut in from the NE rather abruptly one of those two afternoons. We'll see...  

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