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Model discussion for May


Ginx snewx

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Down around NYC and especially away from the coast it'll definitely feel like early summer. Very June like.

really?

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK

KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/01/2015 1200 UTC

FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192

SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07| FRI 08|SAT CLIMO

N/X 49 66| 54 75| 60 79| 63 75| 54 71| 55 75| 56 75| 58 50 68

TMP 52 61| 57 68| 63 72| 65 66| 56 64| 58 69| 59 67| 61

DPT 40 41| 43 44| 49 50| 53 50| 48 48|

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Let the COC days begin, woot woot

Suits everywhere, cameras poppin like crazy.

I wore a suit yesterday but was a bit chilly walking home without an overcoat....on May 1st. Nice day today but a tad cool then off to the races this week upcoming starting tomorrow.

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Unless derivatives alter significantly ... 

 

This month of May is going to be above normal.  

 

Whether that means getting DPs is another question.  I don't see that soil moisture, in situ, is hugely challenged according to what free data is out on the web, so unless we import some kind of substantive drying capacity air mass ... probably won't be too unusual.  You have to also understand/remember, leaf out is not here yet; when that finishes, evaportran acceleration of air mass by the biota is a real factor, and DPs can/will creep up from that alone if we rattle the same air mass around inside of a ridge cocoon ... but that's really heading later in the month, obviously.  

 

I also wouldn't bet on dry, either though.  There is a cornucopia of operational and ensemble suggestion for a TC or hybrid TC off the SE Coast, and none of that currently precludes an affect up the coast.  Some runs even bring the dying circulation into an absorption along ridge-abutting frontalyisis out in time, and if that happens, you're talking 70 dews with jungle drop thunderstorms... 

 

But all that's speculation at this point.  For now, we have a warm departure stint getting going, and the operational runs show that it merely dents before surging back in with perhaps even more panache after D5... With the PNA dying, the EPO fluctuating across cycles, the only fixated tele is the NAO, which is positive, and thus in all more supports a -PNAP.  Which intrinsically supports positive anomalies amid the geopotential medium in the E.  To what extent and/or being sub-synoptic scale inhibited from time to time, notwithstanding...but that's where the wise money is betting. 

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