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Model discussion for May


Ginx snewx

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  On 5/28/2015 at 1:14 PM, Whineminster said:

We thinking the dreariness and mist will be held to just SNE on Sunday? While NNE experiences COC?

Sunday will be a raw mess in NNE. Monday could be the day with some disparity. We'll see how much that high builds in.
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  On 5/28/2015 at 1:17 PM, dendrite said:

Sunday will be a raw mess in NNE. Monday could be the day with some disparity. We'll see how much that high builds in.

 

 

Ok, thanks.  I was under the impression from GYX's AFD that the front will make it far enough south Saturday night that NNE will be out of the showers.  Oh well. 

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  On 5/29/2015 at 11:16 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Noone is getting 2-4 inches of rain out of this. An inch in some spots sure. But it's not raining Sunday thru Tuesday lol. Euro going nuts as usual

GFS is close to it. The setup does argue for a widespread soaking.

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It's always tricky to predict these stratiform rains in the warm season. The key is Monday with the second s/w trough coming out of the Great lakes. That sort of reinvigorates the rain again..especially on the euro. The GFS has this, but not as prevalent as the euro. The setup does have a decent 850 LLJ overriding the chilly air at the surface, so there are some advective processes that sometimes are missing in warm season synoptic events.  I'm not sold on prolific rains yet, but for now, a decent soaking seems reasonable in a good part of the area.

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