Indystorm Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Thought it might be prudent to start a thread on this situation. SPC and TWC both have southern areas of IL and IN currently under risk. Most interesting to me is the fact that the 00z 4km NAM has a string of pearls at 48 hrs. from southern IN down through KY to the TN line. With low pressure expected to move to IL this might be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Thought it might be prudent to start a thread on this situation. SPC and TWC both have southern areas of each state currently under risk. Most interesting to me is the fact that the 00z 4km NAM has a string of pearls at 48 hrs. from southern IN down through KY to the TN line. With low pressure expected to move to IL this might be something to watch. I think there will be a pocket near the low that will need to be watched. PAH's CWA in particular looks to have the best potential then slowly shifting southeast into Central KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 I'll be in Owensboro this weekend and I'm looking forward to this event. Biggest issue is how far north will the warm go. Models have low 80's for far southern part of the Louisville media market, upper 40's for far northern part of media market. Will be a close call and this forecast has HUGE bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 That's the key however. You get that warm just north of you and you're in a prime position for rotating supercells Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO...SRN IL...SRN INDIANA...WRN KYCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 251722Z - 251945ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 TW hoisted about 5 minutes ago--for E MO, S IL, W KY, SW IN until 8PM (50/30/50 tornado/wind/hail probs). Including the entire St. Louis metro, but doesn't quite make it to Springfield. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0112.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 25, 2015 Author Share Posted April 25, 2015 And those cells near St. Louis about to cross the river might be our first candidates for svr in the near future. 70/57 at St. Louis. 72/61 Cape Girardeau. 55/50 at Springfield IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Really nasty cell getting otganized NW of Catbondale Ill, David Baxter is on it.... https://tvnweather.com/live/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 25, 2015 Author Share Posted April 25, 2015 This whole system has been rather baffling and challenging. Originally the highest parameters for Friday were for se KS and ne OK. Then the system slowed down with a greater number of tors in KS than in TX where moisture was greater. The low pressure slowly starting to shear out and fill isn't helping much either. With dewpoints not all that great in the affected area I would be surprised if things manage to ramp up later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 25, 2015 Author Share Posted April 25, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0458 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SRN IL AND INDIANA...WRN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 112... VALID 252025Z - 252230Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 112 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST S OF THE MAIN FRONT FROM SRN IN INTO IND AND NEAR THE OH RIVER. DISCUSSION...A SMALL LINE OF STORMS HAS GRADUALLY FORMED OVER SRN IL...WITH NRN EXTENT RIDING ALONG THE MAIN FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE A SUPERCELL WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE SWRN FLANK AS RADAR DOES SHOW A BROAD STORM-SCALE ROTATION RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS STORM TO BECOME MORE SEVERE WITH TIME. TO THE S...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F. WITH TIME...OTHER CELLS MAY DEVELOP TO THE SW OF THE NRN CLUSTER. OR...PERHAPS THE NRN CLUSTER WILL GROW-UPSCALE A BIT WITH ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. A BRIEF TORNADO MAY STILL OCCUR WITH ANY CELLS...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Looks like a developing severe storm near Harrison IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 perhaps a bow echo is evolving at IN/IL/KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 25, 2015 Author Share Posted April 25, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 524 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 524 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CORYDON...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HENDERSON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ROBARDS AROUND 545 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Nice hook on the TW Storm south of Lexington, KY at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised if that cell has dropped a tornado a few times, took a right turn NE of Gray Hawk, has shown a weak couplet a few times.. Jackson radar activated SAILS on it. May not be a strong tornado associated with it but it's travelling through the remote foothills at night, could be a little scary for some folks if they were caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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