April 24- 25 Severe storm thread

[jaxjagman]

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN KY AND ADJACENT NRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116... VALID 252314Z - 260045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY...PRIMARILY...A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER THROUGH 00-02Z. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.

 

Maybe they are going by the HRRR,but there is nothing on the radar to suggest that is right

[Carvers Gap]

Two very strong cells about twenty miles to my north. Could see them driving back from Johnson City. May get a bit crazy around midnight. Climo, for those from other regions, generally supports tornadoes that move SW to NE here. So, at TRI I am less concerned about tornadoes and more concerned about an MCS line of storms with strong winds and hail. Just had 27K worth of damage fixed from July's system. (thankful for insurance). My wife and I noted it is a bit chilly. Not humid and warm like many systems that damage our area. Man, I hate hail. The baseball size and grapefruit size stuff from July was fun to look at for about ten secs. Then you realize those loud thumps were not so good for cars, the roof, gutters, outdoor furniture, shrubs, chimney, etc.

[jaxjagman]

Two very strong cells about twenty miles to my north. Could see them driving back from Johnson City. May get a bit crazy around midnight. Climo, for those from other regions, generally supports tornadoes that move SW to NE here. So, at TRI I am less concerned about tornadoes and more concerned about an MCS line of storms with strong winds and hail. Just had 27K worth of damage fixed from July's system. (thankful for insurance). My wife and I noted it is a bit chilly. Not humid and warm like many systems that damage our area. Man, I hate hail. The baseball size and grapefruit size stuff from July was fun to look at for about ten secs. Then you realize those loud thumps were not so good for cars, the roof, gutters, outdoor furniture, shrubs, chimney, etc.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   0800 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF KY

   AND THE ERN HALF OF TN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY

   THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...

   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY HAIL AND STRONG WINDS

   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND

   THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD PERSIST

   OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW

   TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN KY...WHILE A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW

   PRESSURE WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE

   NC/SC BORDER.  THIS LATTER LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ALONG A

   QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN NC INTO NRN SC...AND

   THEN ENEWD THROUGH SRN TO ERN NC TO OFFSHORE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY

   INDICATED WEAKENING AND SHEARING OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD

   THROUGH THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO

   WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MIDLEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME LOCATED ALONG

   THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A NERN U.S. TROUGH.  THE WRN KY SURFACE LOW

   WILL UNDERGO FURTHER WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS

   TONIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD THROUGH

   TN...AR...AND OK BY 12Z.  MEANWHILE...THE NC/SC SURFACE LOW WILL

   DEEPEN TONIGHT...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD OFFSHORE THE NC COAST BY EARLY

   SUNDAY MORNING.

   ...NRN FL/GA/SRN AND ERN SC/SERN NC...

   MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN THE GREATEST ACROSS THIS

   REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND

   DEEP-LAYER WLY WINDS SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT

   THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.  HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD

   BE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM NRN FL THROUGH SRN GA TO ERN SC

   AND POSSIBLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SERN NC.

   FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT

   ACROSS NRN FL...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 462.

   ...KY/TN...

   THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING

   INSTABILITY THIS EVENING SUGGESTING A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN COVERAGE

   OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD AND THE COLD

   FRONT ADVANCES SWD.