mackerel_sky Posted August 24, 2015 Author Share Posted August 24, 2015 It doesn't matter. It's either going to die or recurve. Tropical cyclones don't strike the SE US anymore.There's no more blocking either! I hate weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Two systems behind Danny look a lot more interesting than Danny did. Have to see where they go. At least things are getting active for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Two systems behind Danny look a lot more interesting than Danny did. Have to see where they go. At least things are getting active for a change. here are the plots for 98L I would say more than likely a fish storm, the one behind it an the one to come off Africa may be the real ones to watch.....it really just depends on how far south 98L can form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 98L is looking really good this morning. I know that the spaghetti models are favoring a recurve right now but the models are going to need to resolve the trough exiting SE Canada over the next few days. Models have continued to show a ridge building in overhead but after 98L has already gained enough latitude to become embedded in the Westerlies. The result is a stall and then eventual recurve. The 06z GFS actually takes 98L South through the Caribbean, over the islands, into the Gulf, across Florida and eventually on the Carolina coast next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 here are the plots for 98L I would say more than likely a fish storm, the one behind it an the one to come off Africa may be the real ones to watch.....it really just depends on how far south 98L can form. 98L_gefs_06z.png 98L_tracks_06z.png The GFS quickly develops not the next wave behind 98L but the one coming off Africa behind it. The problem is that it's an almost guaranteed fish with any weaknesses in the ridge resulting in a recurve. You can see it here on the GFS. Now here you can see the GFS really blows up yet another wave into a formidable system late in the period and that the ridge is temporarily in control but we're already at or above 20N and it would have to be a flawless ridge to get the system close to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 I cant think of many that formed that far north and made it to the US, Isabel and Ike are a few that come to mind that got way north east of the islands only to hit the US. Usually anything north of the 60/20 benchmark ends up OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 If 98L center is around 13N then we will have another good storm to track..........should be named at 11 if it keeps up its current level of organization.....needs to stay south of 15N and keep on booking it west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Some small ideas, thoughts on this. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons https://twitter.com/wxmanchris You can like my FB page and follow me on twitter. I will follow back as well. Have a great night everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 Won't the first hurricane , Danny , cause any sort of upwelling and bring up cooler water or is there no " cooler" water down that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Here is the pic Some small ideas, thoughts on this. https://www.facebook...riswxmanSimmons https://twitter.com/wxmanchris You can like my FB page and follow me on twitter. I will follow back as well. Have a great night everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Advisories have been initiated for Tropical Storm Erika. NHC track suggests SE Coast threat if she can survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Here is the pic Some small ideas, thoughts on this. https://www.facebook...riswxmanSimmons https://twitter.com/wxmanchris You can like my FB page and follow me on twitter. I will follow back as well. Have a great night everyone. wxmanchris is back!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Doesn't look like anything else is coming behind Erika. NHC posted this on Facebook. Elsewhere, a tropical wave and associated low pressure area located a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for the development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Doesn't look like anything else is coming behind Erika. NHC posted this on Facebook. Elsewhere, a tropical wave and associated low pressure area located a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for the development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph. They are only saying the system behind Erika isn't doing much and that doesn't imply anything else beyond that.....the wave coming off Africa looks a good or better than any of the ones so far this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Cape Verde season is here even with the raging Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Invest 91L looks to be a fish down the road but the CMC does take it west and puts it off the SE coast, the GFS might be scary for Bermuda..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 New study asking if an end is coming to the busy Atlantic hurricane seasons of recent decades. http://www.wral.com/study-are-we-shifting-to-fewer-weaker-atlantic-hurricanes-/14882151/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 New study asking if an end is coming to the busy Atlantic hurricane seasons of recent decades. http://www.wral.com/study-are-we-shifting-to-fewer-weaker-atlantic-hurricanes-/14882151/ There's always a study. Getting worse, getting better, getting warmer, getting colder, getting drier, getting wetter. Getting useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 The next item of interest, will be what develops off of the TX/ Mexico coast by next Tuesday ! Both major models have something there. Just need one of the stronger fronts to shunt it into the SE somehow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 The Non-tropical 'thing' Stu Ostro 2 mins · TROPICAL SUMMARY - TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 8, 2015 ► A low pressure system with at least some tropical characteristics made landfall on the Big Bend of Florida early today; it is now inland with showers & gusty winds (which I am experiencing at the moment in Atlanta!) ► Looking ahead, models are indicating the potential for a wet area of low pressure forming over the western Gulf this weekend into next week; details t.b.d. ► Grace downgraded to a tropical depression, continues to face a rough road ► Linda moisture → Desert Southwest; Jimena moisture → Hawaii; Ex-Ignacio moisture → British Columbia ► Tropical Storm Etau affecting Japan; long-lived Kilo passing Japan to the east, its remnants headed toward the Kamchatka Peninsula of Russia GULF OF MEXICO That's an interesting radar loop from last night into this morning ... As for what this Thing was meteorologically, over the weekend it had characteristics of a "hybrid," i.e. some of a tropical system and some of a non-tropical one, ultimately tending to be more tropical with time. A Weather Underground station at Alligator Point http://bit.ly/1IXmwMN (H/T Mike Dross) measured sustained winds as high as 35 mph (anemometer height within a couple meters of the standard ten), just a few short of tropical storm force (39 mph), and those occurred in convection concentrated near the center of a "closed" circulation at the surface http://bit.ly/1KD9fjI. It is reminiscent of the Things that weren't officially called tropical depressions in the Gulf in late July and early August, about which I blogged http://t.co/TWMzdh7e1H. The northeast Gulf has been a breeding ground for them this season. Looking ahead in the western Gulf, models differ as to the potential for tropical storm formation this weekend into next week; they agree on that being a general area of rising air, low pressure, and heavy precipitation (per the model forecast map below for that time period), thus something for which to watch future model trends. ATLANTIC Grace mustered a little more convection (thunderstorms) this afternoon, but continues to face a rough road ahead, with shear, and dry air. NHC is giving a system out beyond Bermuda a medium chance of developing. Models suggest the next "African easterly wave" that has a chance will be one coming off the coast this weekend. CENTRAL-EASTERN PACIFIC Satellite imagery shows moisture heading into British Columbia and even the U.S. Pac NW from ex-Ignacio; Jimena's lurking near Hawaii and poised to affect the islands, and Linda's across Baja toward the Desert Southwest. Whereas Kevin's moisture aimed only toward the eastern part of that region, moisture in part from Linda is reaching as far west as southern Arizona and SoCal, where flash flood warnings are currently in effect. 0:20/0:20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Dang --- the loop didnt post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 There's this entity floating around out there, too 1050 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:Special tropical weather outlook to update the discussion of thelow pressure area east-southeast of Bermuda.The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on TropicalDepression Grace, located about 1050 miles east of the LesserAntilles.1. Updated: Recent satellite wind data indicate that the low pressurearea centered about 225 miles east-southeast of Bermuda hasdeveloped a well-defined circulation with winds to near gale forcenortheast of the center. If any further increase in organizationoccurs, advisories on a subtropical or tropical cyclone could beinitiated Wednesday morning. The low is expected to remain nearlystationary for the remainder of tonight, and then move northward at5 to 10 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday or Saturday, thesystem should be absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percentForecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Here a dot, there a dot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 That Florida thing... An Air Force Reserve HurricaneHunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow, ifnecessary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains arepossible today over portions of the Florida Peninsula and coastalareas of Georgia and South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 The last GFS run kinda keeps its stalled offshore a few hundred miles for a week then brings it inland over eastern NC next Friday.....seems unlikly though.....maybe help the beaches and OBX get some rain but other than that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 Not adding much to the conversation as I'm a total amateur when it comes to the tropics, but how on earth can the GFS swing this far between one run? The 00z/06z/12z/18z were very similar overall for the east coast with high pressure dominating and zero action off the coast, but all of a sudden tonight's 00z run has a tropical cyclone on the OBX. I know it's still a long ways out, but the drastic changes are just crazy. 18z 00z Of course, the only reason why I have any interest whatsoever in the tropics is because I'll be in the OBX 9/27-10/3 and I'm just hoping there won't be a system affecting the coast while I'm there. But man, staying up til 1:30am only to be let down with a TS ruining my vacation that's still 8 days out is stressing me out. Anywho, I'll get out of the hurricane season thread and wait on winter now! Feel free to chime in if anyone has any thoughts as to why these runs are so wildly inconsistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 Don't let something that GFS is showing 8 days out stress you out. It will change today and then again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 Well, just my luck. It hasn't changed all day. I've never seen anything like this on a wx model in my 10+ years of being a weather geek. The system that is off the east coast at initiation literally moves up the coast, gets pushed out to sea, gets pushed back to the SW by the transient high pressure system, then goes up the coast again, gets pushed back SW again with a second high pressure system, then comes up the coast for a THIRD time. It literally follows the same path three times. Mind-blowing. E NC goes from drought to monthly total in one week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 8:00 AM... 1. A broad area of low pressure is located about 325 miles east of the northeast coast of Florida. This low is not showing any signs of acquiring tropical or subtropical characteristics, and the reconnaissance aircraft mission scheduled for this afternoon has been canceled. Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development while this low moves slowly northeastward away from the southeastern United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 Does anyone have any thoughts in regards to the D7-10 or so range southeast tropical/sub-tropical threat? The GFS has been so inconsistent on how it handles the big canadian HP system and how it interacts with the Great Lakes low pressure system and the tropical/sub-tropical disturbance(s) rotating clockwise around the Outer Banks of NC. I've never seen anything like that. It just rotates for 3-5 days before finally coming inland and soaking E VA/NC/SC/etc. Also, it looks like it tries to "transfer" the energy from the tropical system in the GOM across Florida, then move it up the east coast. Does that make any sort of sense given the setup? The EURO/CMC keeps that system in the GOM and keeps that HP system around longer next week, thus squashing that tropical low into the meat grinder. Which model(s) have been performing the best overall lately, especially regarding the tropics and the general pattern? Thanks in advance for any info guys! Trying to get my OBX vacation planned without being flooded out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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