Solak Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 1 hr · Edited · NHC has issued a special tropical weather outlook - Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in association with the low pressure area centered near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. In addition, surface observations indicate that the circulation has become better defined, with winds near 35 mph over water to the east and south of the center. While upper-level winds are, at best, marginally conducive, there is some potential for a tropical cyclone to form later today or tonight as the low moves northeastward along the coasts of South and North Carolina. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon. After tonight, the low is expected to move into the open Atlantic Ocean and merge with a frontal system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds will spread along the coastal areas of South and North Carolina today and tonight. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts and local forecast office products issued by the National Weather Service at www.weather.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Oh well --- it tried... 435 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion onthe low pressure area near Wilmington, North Carolina.1. Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm activityassociated with the low pressure area near Wilmington, NorthCarolina is poorly organized. However, an Air Force ReserveHurricane Hunter aircraft found an area of gale-force winds over theAtlantic Ocean well to the east and southeast of the center. Thereis still a short window of opportunity for this system to become atropical cyclone before it merges with a frontal system Wednesday orWednesday night. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains andgusty winds will continue to spread along the coastal areas of NorthCarolina through tonight. For additional information on this system,see High Seas Forecasts and local forecast office products issued bythe National Weather Service.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I went through those t storms this early am and they were no joke. Tons of lightning and 4.5 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Something to break the boredom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Up to 40% now in the 5 day. www.hurricanes.gov 9 Likes1 Comment1 Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 A Cape Verde storm?!?!? I'm so old I still remember what those look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Could get interesting if it can make it to the western ATL, the Bermuda high should keep it heading west if it doesn't recurve before it gets to 45-50W. If it gets under the ridge and stays there then 8-10 days from now it could be a threat to SE......still its a 30% chance Cape Verde that is 10-12 days out so there will be plenty of time to watch it, most of the models don't do much with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 I'm not gonna hold my breath, but at least it's a cloud cluster I can watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 NHC getting a bit bullish on the Cape Verde system...... ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. A tropical wave and a surface low pressure system located severalhundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands are producing aconcentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, which are beginningto show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expectedto be conducive for further development, and a tropical depressioncould form by midweek as the disturbance moves westward at around 15mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percentForecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Still hanging on at 8:00AM 2 day 50% 5 day 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Latest HWRF run still takes 96L to a cane, it also flattens out the recurve a bit and is much less sharp with it.....that said it still to far north at the end of the run to be a legit threat to the US http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=96L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015081712&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 60%/80% now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Looking good tonight, may be a TD soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Gonna be a TD today if it can maintain the look it had overnight....... 70/80 now ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressurelocated several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape VerdeIslands have become better organized over the past 24 hours.Environmental conditions appear conducive for additionaldevelopment, and a tropical depression will likely form within thenext day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 I like the cute little homegrown spin between Hatteras and Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 We have liftoff... NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center Just now · NHC will begin issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression #4 , located over the east-central tropical Atlantic Ocean, at 11 a.m. EDT/AST. All of the information, including graphics, will be posted on the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 We have Danny will need a thread on this one, track is interesting keeps it south and west...takes it to a 100 mph cane by then too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 We have Danny will need a thread on this one, track is interesting keeps it south and west...takes it to a 100 mph cane by then too.... Just looking at that ... he's kinda south of what we tend to usually see, and if the early (pay and private) models are even nearly right, he may just avoid the shear on the north and the mountains on the islands and make it into the GOM without getting torn up. Will be interesting to watch, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/11900000_912336032158342_7120595973887353776_n.png?oh=6d403d76a84c9adfa11d2f62610b17c0&oe=5681911D Looks pretty far south. That would be a potential concern, especially with a completely untapped Carribean and GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 18, 2015 Author Share Posted August 18, 2015 If anything gets into the gulf or near Florida , the fronts are getting further south and will curve them to the N, hopefully into the SE , with lots of moisture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Just looking at that ... he's kinda south of what we tend to usually see, and if the early (pay and private) models are even nearly right, he may just avoid the shear on the north and the mountains on the islands and make it into the GOM without getting torn up. Will be interesting to watch, for sure. Not sure he makes the GOM, HWRF has been the most consistent so far and it keeps wanting to recurve it on the eastern side of the BH but that's unlikely IMO and every run it just moves the turn a bit further west......think Florida and up the east coast has a better chance of getting hit with the long range stuff showing more troughs unless it can stay REALLY south. At least its something to watch and most models develop the next wave as well and have it in the islands by early Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 From the main thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 From the main thread Euro ens.gif Well that's shoots my shoot the gap postulation... but .... we're a long way out .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Watching and waiting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Nice to see it a little active, I am worried 98L will form to far north, the one behind it might be better and there is yet another huge wave over central Africa that if it holds up might be the biggest wave to come off all year....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Alan Huffman just tweeted the models showing Invest 98 as a strong tropical storm or hurricane in 4 or 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 It doesn't matter. It's either going to die or recurve. Tropical cyclones don't strike the SE US anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Alan Huffman just tweeted the models showing Invest 98 as a strong tropical storm or hurricane in 4 or 5 days. Reading in the main thread there seems to be a camp of models that don't develop it. Who knows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 It doesn't matter. It's either going to die or recurve. Tropical cyclones don't strike the SE US anymore. Or severe storms. Or snow most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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