downeastnc Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 CMC basically has Arthur the sequel minus the landfall but its oh so close for Cape Lookout, would be hurricane conditions on parts of the OBX either way.......then at the end of the run it has a low in the eastern GOM that crosses FL comes off Jacksonville and heads towards NC at around 1005 MB.....GFS does not have the second one though it looks like it thought about it for a few frames.....and its still OTS with the first one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 CMC went towards the OTS solution the GFS has on the 12Z run......keeps the system a good 150-200 miles off Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 1, 2015 Author Share Posted June 1, 2015 CMC went towards the OTS solution the GFS has on the 12Z run......keeps the system a good 150-200 miles off HatterasAll hail King Euro and GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 All hail King Euro and GFS! There's a new king in town and it sure as heck ain't the Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Do they have an early bird menu? Say, before 3pm, like JBuns normal dinner time? If I hit the early bird, it would be because I never went to bed the night before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 There's a new king in town and it sure as heck ain't the Euro: KingGoofy.jpg Still more reliable than the weather forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Colorado State University team continues to predict well below-average 2015 Atlantic hurricane season http://www.news.colostate.edu/Release/7673 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 A lot of hints in the global model data of disturbed weather from the NW Caribbean lifting up into the GOM by the first part of next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 A lot of hints in the global model data of disturbed weather from the NW Caribbean lifting up into the GOM by the first part of next week... Climo for past El Nino's (that ended up later peaking as strong) for June suggests that IF there is going to be any tropical activity that a mid June TC in the GOM is about as likely a scenario as any and much more likely than a June TC off of the SE coast as was falsely modeled for early June. Also, the MJO, if anything, would seemingly be supportive based on forecasts. El Nino's actually have had somewhat higher than average frequency of June GOM storms from what I recall finding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 GOM system on tap according to the major global models and the NHC is biting.......this could be a big deal IRT the heatwave as it could bring enough clouds and moisture into the gulf states and SE to cloud us up and bring storms and rains that would obviously abate the heat. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. A broad area of low pressure over northern Belize and the Yucatanpeninsula is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms andwinds to near gale force over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.Environmental conditions should support some development of thissystem when it moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico bytomorrow night and across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico throughTuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible overthe Yucatan peninsula during the next day or so. Additionalinformation on this system can be found in High Seas Forecastsissued by the National Weather Service.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 13, 2015 Author Share Posted June 13, 2015 GOM system on tap according to the major global models and the NHC is biting.......this could be a big deal IRT the heatwave as it could bring enough clouds and moisture into the gulf states and SE to cloud us up and bring storms and rains that would obviously abate the heat. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure over northern Belize and the Yucatan peninsula is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and winds to near gale force over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions should support some development of this system when it moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by tomorrow night and across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible over the Yucatan peninsula during the next day or so. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent With the position of the death ridge, it should steer this towards TX, if it even forms, and that would not be good for them at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 With the position of the death ridge, it should steer this towards TX, if it even forms, and that would not be good for them at all! Yeah CMC dumps 6-8" on them in a day and a half which is bad, but most of the rivers and stuff there are back to normal.....so it wouldn't be anything like what they had last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 East TX, OK and the Ozarks are probably in trouble with regards to what is coming from the Western GOM. The long and deep fetch of moisture will allow totals to really ramp up, especially if any bands were to train post-landfall...then the next big question will be, how quick will our death ridge try to break down on the north and western edges? Maybe we can get a Gulf feature to do a sharp slingshot across the Southeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Recon tomorrow... NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic An Air Force recon mission has been added for Sunday afternoon for the low near Yucatan. http://hurricanes.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 East TX, OK and the Ozarks are probably in trouble with regards to what is coming from the Western GOM. The long and deep fetch of moisture will allow totals to really ramp up, especially if any bands were to train post-landfall... then the next big question will be, how quick will our death ridge try to break down on the north and western edges? Maybe we can get a Gulf feature to do a sharp slingshot across the Southeast... The 12Z CMC was decent it was pretty strong with the GL low and high over Canada compressing the northwest corner of the SE ridge and shooting the rem low east... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015061312&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=264 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 I'd love for the CMC to be correct man, but I don't put much stock in it outside of 12 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 I'd love for the CMC to be correct man, but I don't put much stock in it outside of 12 hrs or so. Well yeah anything over 4-5 days is suspect...but the GFS and CMC are pretty close to each other on the basics but overall there pretty different with results inland as the GFS takes the low just north of us versus the CMC which is just south....gotta see what it does first but I will say this its a huge low down there and its gonna bring a ton of moisture with it IMO..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Moon Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Interesting that Raleigh NWS Office mentions this too: LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY... "BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE IN A WEEK AS A SYSTEM IN THEWRN GOMEX MOVES NORTH AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ANDMOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS AN OPEN WAVE. STILL A LOT OFUNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH ITS ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL MAKEIT...BUT IF LATEST GFS IS CORRECT...WE COULD SEE A BREAK IN THE HEATBY FRIDAY." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 MJO seems favorable. Some analogs to consider of mid June GOM El Niño TC's for 2nd year strong+ or standalone super: 1888: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1888/1/track.gif 1972: Agnes http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1972/AGNES/track.gif 1982: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1982/2/track.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 13, 2015 Author Share Posted June 13, 2015 I'd love for the CMC to be correct man, but I don't put much stock in it outside of 12 hrs or so.I'm gonna wait on the UKMet and NAVGEM , to give my opinion! But, I must say, the possibility of a remnant tropical system moving towards my area, is almost as fun as tracking a snow event! Especially after the heatwave and dry spell coming up/ ongoing at Shetleyville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Recon just lifted off.. I am interested to see what they find. Also will be interested to see what the models do with new/current data ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 14, 2015 Author Share Posted June 14, 2015 It's just going to go into TX and slingshot through the OH valley! No rain for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 It's just going to go into TX and slingshot through the OH valley! No rain for us! I would wait until we get good data from the storm to make that assumption. Not saying you are wrong because the Euro agrees with you, but lets hold off until we get good data into the model calculus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Interesting that RAH makes a reference to Erin from several years ago... THE SCENARIO (TRACK-WISE) INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN IN 2007 (THOUGH ERIN DEVELOPED IN MID AUGUST)...A UNIQUE CYCLONE THAT UNDERWENT A RARE AND RATHER DRAMATIC INLAND INTENSIFICATION OVER OKLAHOMA...AND WHICH THE REMNANTS THEREOF AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE MCS /SQUALL LINE/ THAT PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC ON AUG 21, 2007. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVELOP...NOT TO MENTION ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WILL CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT 40% FRI/SAT. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Interesting that RAH makes a reference to Erin from several years ago... That setup for that was remarkably similar to the setup the models keep showing with this system..... http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20070821/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Interesting that RAH makes a reference to Erin from several years ago... Last thing we need is an August 2007 pattern redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 Just curious , but just saw on TWC , that the tropical system had winds of 40mph currently, why does it not have a name? (Bob) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Per the latest satellite pics, 91L has become better organized and TS force sustained winds are now being picked up by recon over a sizeable area in the E/NE sector. This should go right to a TS designation and skip TD once it is finally designated (very high chance), which could be very shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Just curious , but just saw on TWC , that the tropical system had winds of 40mph currently, why does it not have a name? (Bob) *Bill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Just curious , but just saw on TWC , that the tropical system had winds of 40mph currently, why does it not have a name? (Bob) Umm cause TWC doesn't get to declare storms only NHC can do that and they haven't upgraded it from a disturbance yet since the plane didn't find a solid LLC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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