downeastnc Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Hmmmm no floater on the system or are they just moving it? Be nice to have a close vis loop before sunset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Hmmmm no floater on the system or are they just moving it? Be nice to have a close vis loop before sunsetHere you go.www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/01L_floater.html Looks like it's beginning its transition to tropical storm Ana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Here you go. www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/01L_floater.html Looks like it's beginning its transition to tropical storm Ana. Thanks....looks real good all things considered, really trying to tuck that llc into the right place....this keeps up and it will be TS Ana by 11 pm if not at 5, need a plane out there to take a look. Basic structure looks much better and much more tropical. I have seen storms that are legit TS that look way worse than Ana does ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Not breaking news, but no one has mentioned it - she's Ana. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ http://myfloridahurricane.info/current-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Recon in there now, betting we have a legit 50-60 mph TS now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Not breaking news, but no one has mentioned it - she's Ana. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ you mean straight TS now or just a named storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 you mean straight TS now or just a named storm? just named Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 just named Oh yeah we know that its just no one started a separate thread and there hasn't been much to talk about in general since its really been lame till this afternoon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Just saw that recon has found sub 1000 pressure: 998.3 mb in the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Hmmmm flight level winds 70-80 mph on the NE side in all the heaviest convection not to shabby at all......lots of 40-50 mph surface winds as well......looks pretty damn good for a first week of May with marginal conditions system as well......recon might actually hit the center this time and I bet its 996-997.... edit: 997.3 extrap that pass..... 84 mph FL wind Time: 00:37:00Z Coordinates: 32.350N 75.683W Acft. Static Air Press: 844.7 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,531 m Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 144° at 70 kts (From the SE at 80.6 mph) Air Temp: 8.8°C* (47.8°F*) Dew Pt: -* Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 73 kts (84.0 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 46 kts (52.9 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 9 mm/hr (0.35 in/hr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Hmmmm flight level winds 70-80 mph on the NE side in all the heaviest convection not to shabby at all......lots of 40-50 mph surface winds as well......looks pretty damn good for a first week of May with marginal conditions system as well......recon might actually hit the center this time and I bet its 996-997.... edit: 997.3 extrap that pass..... 84 mph FL wind Time: 00:37:00Z Coordinates: 32.350N 75.683W Acft. Static Air Press: 844.7 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,531 m Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 144° at 70 kts (From the SE at 80.6 mph) Air Temp: 8.8°C* (47.8°F*) Dew Pt: -* Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 73 kts (84.0 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 46 kts (52.9 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 9 mm/hr (0.35 in/hr) I think it can reach hurricane strength tonight. I was ready to mark it off but this thing is a fighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I think it can reach hurricane strength tonight. I was ready to mark it off but this thing is a fighter. Well that's a bit of a stretch IMO....that would require it to really wrap the center with storms and get that dry air choked out for them to pull the trigger on that.....the surface winds were never above 50-55 mph so the storm isn't really organized enough to get those stronger FL winds to the surface. However it looks to be pretty much truly a tropical storm with winds 50-55 mph which is a bit more that looked possible yesterday. I guess anything is possible though and if it does really well overnight and gets more symmetrical it could make a run at a cane but that is extremely, extremely, extremely unlikely IMO with the current setup. It has really done great today though and right now the loops show a system really trying to be something so who knows....its moving NW a bit already to and they will most likely speed the timetable up at 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Well that's a bit of a stretch IMO....that would require it to really wrap the center with storms and get that dry air choked out for them to pull the trigger on that.....the surface winds were never above 50-55 mph so the storm isn't really organized enough to get those stronger FL winds to the surface. However it looks to be pretty much truly a tropical storm with winds 50-55 mph which is a bit more that looked possible yesterday. I guess anything is possible though and if it does really well overnight and gets more symmetrical it could make a run at a cane but that is extremely, extremely, extremely unlikely IMO with the current setup. It has really done great today though and right now the loops show a system really trying to be something so who knows....its moving NW a bit already to and they will most likely speed the timetable up at 11 I think it can not be ruled out and arthur last year got the same shape before popping an eye out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 I think it can not be ruled out and arthur last year got the same shape before popping an eye out. Yeah but we are talking water temps in the low to mid 70's right now at best, Arthur had way warmer water to work with, typically these water temps wouldn't support a cane very well but the upper dynamics are helping a bit here so I hate to say there is no way it could happen. Again it looks pretty damn impressive on the floater loops right now..but the dry air is working around and might shut down this current flare up..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Yeah but we are talking water temps in the low to mid 70's right now at best, Arthur had way warmer water to work with, typically these water temps wouldn't support a cane very well but the upper dynamics are helping a bit here so I hate to say there is no way it could happen. Again it looks pretty damn impressive on the floater loops right now..but the dry air is working around and might shut down this current flare up.....Yeah, it's over the 80 degree + Gulf Stream right now , but when it does start moving WNW, it will be in the very low 70s outside of that, so I think it peaks tonight or early tomorrow , before it starts moving into the colder water! But as stated, today's development was impressive , especially in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Yeah, it's over the 80 degree + Gulf Stream right now , but when it does start moving WNW, it will be in the very low 70s outside of that, so I think it peaks tonight or early tomorrow , before it starts moving into the colder water! But as stated, today's development was impressive , especially in the afternoon. 11pm and they leave it a STS which with the temp difference inside and outside the center is a little surprising but they must want to see it maintain it so STS Ana it is. 60 MPH sustained winds was a shock lol I guess it wouldn't take much to get her to a cane....the thing about the Gulf Stream is the current is 4-5 knts so there is always fresh warm water moving up so these storms that sit over the same area don't upwell themselves to death. IF it sits there another day it could do it. Looks like Sunday night here is gonna be interesting it should be just to my SW at 8pm and cross right over me overnight so I will be on the N and NE side of the center until it passes. Guess I will need to start getting all the lawn furniture up tomorrow, hopefully though it wont be to windy or wet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Ana has some upper outflow establishing which is starting to vent the storm, and was surprised to see the max winds upped to 60 mph. Impressive early May TC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Fully tropical as of 5:00 AM NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center added 3 new photos. Ana has made the transition to a tropical storm this morning as it moves slowly north-northwestward toward the Carolinas. It's centered about 105 miles southeast of Myrtle Beach as of 5 a.m. EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Little additional strengthening today is expected, and a gradual weakening trend should begin tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning continues from the South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Lookout, and a Tropical Storm Watch continues from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, to South of the South Santee River.Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the progress of Ana. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and possible within the watch area, by this afternoon or evening. The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward through South Carolina. Tropical Storm Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts of 5 inches, over eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Ana looks sick. Dry air definitely taking its toll on it now as noted on the WV imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Ana looking a bit ragged, a new flare up is trying to get going so we will see what happens but it will be tough for her to get back to where she was last night I think....another thing to watch is the bands coming ashore as the day goes on.....EHI increasing across coastal NC and some weak spin ups are going to be possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Ana looks sick. Dry air definitely taking its toll on it now as noted on the WV imagery.ANA looks dope! I hope it don't come too far inland and knock over a taffy barrel at South of the Border!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Ana is the type of system that will dominate this season so I do believe that the area from Florida to Cape Cod and everywhere in between need to keep an eye on the 2015 hurricane season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 you mean straight TS now or just a named storm? Well, I guess now, TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 25, 2015 Share Posted May 25, 2015 latest GFS has a tropical system just offshore of the OBX June 4th, and it has been flirting with this system off and on for a couple of days now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 I noticed earlier today that JB gave out his first warning shot that the Gulf of Mexico may need to be watched first 7-10 days of June. He noted how the Euro in the Day 10-14 timeframe shows lower heights in the Gulf with ridging over the Eastern US...then after a few days to allow organization, the ridge splits allowing an opening northward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 GFS trended east with the low it doesn't really get closer than 200-300 miles of the east coast on the latest runs so we will see if it changes any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 LOL --12z brings it ashore in SC and carries it into Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 26, 2015 Author Share Posted May 26, 2015 LOL --12z brings it ashore in SC and carries it into Indiana We need that to happen! It's gonna take a tropical storm or low to move over us and replenish the groundwater ! Very, very dry, over alot of the Carolinas ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 We need that to happen! It's gonna take a tropical storm or low to move over us and replenish the groundwater ! Very, very dry, over alot of the Carolinas ! Actually, groundwater levels are running at or above normal levels most areas across the Carolinas. A few locales are below normal, mainly over the sw mtns. No sigfnt issues with abnormal dryness nor impending drought conds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 LOL --12z brings it ashore in SC and carries it into Indiana Yeah go figure but interestingly the CMC is now getting in range as well and it and the GFS agree of the storm forming near the western tip of Cuba so starting tonight we will have another model to follow but the fact they agree at this range on the storm is pretty unusual. 12Z GFS 12Z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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