mackerel_sky Posted May 8, 2015 Author Share Posted May 8, 2015 20 days without rain sounds harsh. everything in your area must be caked with pollen.It's been 8 in a row without a drop of rain, and none in sight for 5 more or so. Yes, it's very pollen caked around here and dusty. The low-mid 80s and humidity in the 30% range, has made it very dusty and dry, very quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 The disturbance is about to be a skeleton. Dry air wrapping around now. Better get named soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 The disturbance is about to be a skeleton. Dry air wrapping around now. Better get named soon. Now Subtropical Storm Ana. Congrats to Mack on the call. Looks like the NWS disagrees with you mp. TWC says NWS will upgrade with 11pm discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Now Subtropical Storm Ana. Congrats to Mack on the call. Looks like the NWS disagrees with you mp. TWC says NWS will upgrade with 11pm discussion. it deff will be subtropical, but not tropical. still cool to see it "try" to become tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 The disturbance is about to be a skeleton. Dry air wrapping around now. Better get named soon. Yeah I think in my opinion that it dissipates later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 I think WRAL said Monday this week might be the first we have gone since September without having measurable precip. That was before the Ana threat this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 We have STS Ana... NHC issues Tropical Storm Watch for Charleston, Coastal Georgetown, Coastal Horry, Inland Berkeley, Inland Georgetown, Inland Horry, Tidal Berkeley [sC] and Carteret, Coastal Brunswick, Coastal New Hanover, Coastal Pender, Inland Brunswick, Inland New Hanover, Inland Pender, Onslow [NC] until further notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Yeah I think in my opinion that it dissipates later tonight. It might attain more subtropical characteristics. dry air only hurts warm core systems, not cold core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 It might attain more subtropical characteristics. dry air only hurts warm core systems, not cold core. This is near warm core already if not already there at least I heard so in other "places" but the dry air is clearly affecting it and it seems to be trying its best but just like the storms last year it just can not muster up enough to cough the dry air out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 This is near warm core already if not already there at least I heard so in other "places" but the dry air is clearly affecting it and it seems to be trying its best but just like the storms last year it just can not muster up enough to cough the dry air out. this is going though transition. it lost it's chance to be fully tropical. the NE quadrant is dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 this is going though transition. it lost it's chance to be fully tropical. the NE quadrant is dry. Maybe so but really it is dying out so not much to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015Satellite imagery shows some increase in deep convection thisevening, and the low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coastis now being designated as a subtropical storm. Based on adjustedSFMR winds from a hurricane hunter aircraft that has beeninvestigating the system, the current intensity is set at 40kt. Data from the aircraft also show that the radius of maximumwinds has decreased somewhat from earlier today, but at 80 n mi itis still too large to justify classifying Ana as a tropical cycloneat this time. Since there has been more deep convection occurringnear the center over the past several hours, it is becoming morelikely that Ana will make the transition into a tropical stormwithin the next day or so. The storm should remain situated near orover the Gulf Stream for the next 24-36 hours, which would allow forsome slight strengthening. Later in the period, as the cycloneapproaches the coast, weakening is expected due to the influence ofcooler shelf waters.The system has not moved much over the past 24 hours and theinitial motion estimate is 350/2. Ana is likely to remain locatedto the south of a stubborn mid-tropospheric blocking pattern for thenext 48 hours or so. Global models show the block breaking downover the weekend, which should allow Ana to move inland over thesoutheastern U.S. Near the end of the forecast period, the systemshould accelerate northeastward in the flow ahead of a broad trough.The official track forecast is close to the dynamical modelconsensus.We appreciate the assistance of the Air Force Hurricane Hunters forproviding valuable observations, given their limited resourcesprior to the start of the regular Atlantic Hurricane Season.Note that the name Ana is pronounced AH-nah.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 08/0300Z 31.5N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 31.6N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 31.7N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 31.9N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 32.3N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 33.4N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0000Z 36.1N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND120H 13/0000Z 41.0N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Maybe so but really it is dying out so not much to talk about. it's not dying. this is different than a warm core system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 The local forecast for this storm has been awful. It was supposed to be rainy here all weekend according to WRAL yesterday, and now they are saying not until Monday, and this is after they were saying this past Monday that it wouldn't have an impact on us at all. I think they should have went with that since it looks like it is just going to spin around and then die off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 The local forecast for this storm has been awful. It was supposed to be rainy here all weekend according to WRAL yesterday, and now they are saying not until Monday, and this is after they were saying this past Monday that it wouldn't have an impact on us at all. I think they should have went with that since it looks like it is just going to spin around and then die off. There is no evidence this is going to happen, all the models hold it together and bring it inshore, add to that that it was never suppose to be much more than it is right now and inland areas would get mostly light to moderate rain with the outside potential that it would be more rain. From the beginning EVERY met office trying to forecast this thing has said the forecast was low confidence due to the erratic steering flow etc.....so its hard to say the forecast has been awful when the flat out tell you they are not sure about the timing or track. Ana does appear to be trying to tighten up a bit this morning, really decent blow up in the S/SE side if fact one of the better ones I have seen the last day or so but its still away from the actual "COC" . The plane also found a pressure of 1001 MB that's down from 1005 MB....the buoys to the NW also have pressure rises and drops in wind speed so that plus the stronger storms on the opposite side and the drop of a few MB's suggest to me at least that ANA is actually getting a bit better organized or at least trying to consolidate a better COC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Looks like it's about to cross over the gulf current, that should give it some juice and allow it to become more Tropical. Should see pressure drops for several more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 For Ana to become truly tropical, the storm would have to walk a tightrope of warm water long enough to overcome the dry air. NHC notes that the lower and mid-level circulation should become better stacked, which would help as well. But it's a tall order for Ana to make that conversion before either running out of time or warm water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 For Ana to become truly tropical, the storm would have to walk a tightrope of warm water long enough to overcome the dry air. NHC notes that the lower and mid-level circulation should become better stacked, which would help as well. But it's a tall order for Ana to make that conversion before either running out of time or warm water. I wouldn't say its a tall order in fact if the trend of this morning continues I bet its get s changed to TS Ana by 11 pm tonight.....the center is much more evident on vis loop now and the overall structure looks much better its just that the storms are just off the the SE of the center---really the best it has looked...if the swirl can get dragged under the thunderstorms then it will most likely be called TS Ana vs STS Ana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 I have to disagree with the NHC somewhat. The core is still warm, and moving over warm water will only increase convection and latent heating. System looking much better, dry air is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 I have to disagree with the NHC somewhat. The core is still warm, and moving over warm water will only increase convection and latent heating. System looking much better, dry air is gone. For someone who has been saying it is dying it sure looks good today so far let us see if it can keep it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 The dry air isn't gone and its the main thing hanging Ana up the dry air is right on the center on the west and north sides right now thus the lack of storms there.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/flash-wv-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 The dry air isn't gone and its the main thing hanging Ana up the dry air is right on the center on the west and north sides right now thus the lack of storms there.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/flash-wv-short.html Any chance it works it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 8, 2015 Author Share Posted May 8, 2015 Whoopeee! A 45 mph sub tropical storm, that's gonna give MB and Florence a breeze and some sprinkles! Let's see if an early storm formation equates to hurricane season, like an early Nov snow , equates to snows the rest of the winter!? I bet we won't see another tropical system until July or August, in the Atlantic, the niño should be raging by then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Whoopeee! A 45 mph sub tropical storm, that's gonna give MB and Florence a breeze and some sprinkles! Let's see if an early storm formation equates to hurricane season, like an early Nov snow , equates to snows the rest of the winter!? I bet we won't see another tropical system until July or August, in the Atlantic, the niño should be raging by then! lets see if we can get to 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 lets see if we can get to 50 Let us see if we can get an eye first lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Any chance it works it out Probably not all of it anyways, it might get it mostly worked out a few times but dry air will always be a issue I suspect. there may be a window for 12 hrs or so tonight into Sat where it could get its act together enough to be and look like a true TS...but it most likely will always have a "dry" side.... Vis loop has a "center" moving or appearing to move SW away from the main convection.....if that can get hooked up with the storms or at least tucked in closer then there is a much better chance at TS Ana and top winds getting up there a bit higher but the fact that it appears to move away form that area isn't exactly encouraging if you want this to get more organized.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/flash-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Probably not all of it anyways, it might get it mostly worked out a few times but dry air will always be a issue I suspect. there may be a window for 12 hrs or so tonight into Sat where it could get its act together enough to be and look like a true TS...but it most likely will always have a "dry" side.... Vis loop has a "center" moving or appearing to move SW away from the main convection.....if that can get hooked up with the storms or at least tucked in closer then there is a much better chance at TS Ana and top winds getting up there a bit higher but the fact that it appears to move away form that area isn't exactly encouraging if you want this to get more organized.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/flash-vis-long.html I noticed the same now looking back at it. It is trying its best but sometimes that is not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Let us see if we can get an eye first lol. you dont need a open eye for a tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 you dont need a open eye for a tropical storm. I was joking lol of course even most minimal hurricanes do not have an eye visible on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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