downeastnc Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 12z Nam keeps it offshore. 12z GFS loops it around into SC. 12z CMC brings it into SC and up through central/eastern NC. Nice consensus! Gonna be fun to watch and see how it plays out.....still sucks to me that they can look at the radar returns off Florida and then cancel recon....ugh Based on the current long range loops if this thing has any kind of organized storms near its "center" going into DMAX it could get to TD or TS status pretty quick....overall conditions are pretty favorable if this was a month from now and the water was 5-10 degrees warmer we would have a big problem brewing off the SE coast given the forecast for a probable landfall. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Gonna be fun to watch and see how it plays out.....still sucks to me that they can look at the radar returns off Florida and then cancel recon....ugh Based on the current long range loops if this thing has any kind of organized storms near its "center" going into DMAX it could get to TD or TS status pretty quick....overall conditions are pretty favorable if this was a month from now and the water was 5-10 degrees warmer we would have a big problem brewing off the SE coast given the forecast for a probable landfall. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Yeah it sucks. Maybe they'll send the plane in later. The 12z Euro brings it inland and up through eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 6, 2015 Author Share Posted May 6, 2015 Most of the spaghetti plots have it moving North for a while, then hooking into MB area, then up into E NC. They were calling it Ana by Friday on our local 6 pm weather! I don't care what it does , because all it's bringing me is subsidence ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Most of the spaghetti plots have it moving North for a while, then hooking into MB area, then up into E NC. They were calling it Ana by Friday on our local 6 pm weather! I don't care what it does , because all it's bringing me is subsidence ! You live too close to Shetley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Going to have to watch the system today if it sends some outer bands into eastern NC and coastal SC there could be a increased risk for small tornados etc....hopefully they don't cancel the recon it looks good on radar however it doesn't have that fully tropical look at all although it is firing and maintaining some storms that appear to be trying to wrap the center.....suspect TS ANA will form there in the next 12-18 hrs. Buoys 41004 ( off Charleston ) and Frying Pan Shoals buoy 41013 both are sustained 30 mph for the last several hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 7, 2015 Author Share Posted May 7, 2015 I think the recon flight was suppose to leave at 7:30 this am, I think it was a go and the hurricane guy on TWC said he would not be shocked if they came back and it was named , with their findings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Recon are on their first pass through the "center", with extrap pressure at 1007.0 mb at 3 kts of W FL winds. We'll see what they find but it doesn't look spectacular from above so far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Buoy 41004, to the center's NW, has sustained winds from the N at an impressive 33 knots and pressure of 1011.6 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 41004 off Charleston hit a gust to 45 last hr, so its squally on the east side regardless of the nature of the low, gonna be a wet few days on the SC/NC coast..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 41004 off Charleston hit a gust to 45 last hr, so its squally on the east side regardless of the nature of the low, gonna be a wet few days on the SC/NC coast..... Can it come inland please. I would love some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Can it come inland please. I would love some rain. Trust me if there was a way I could send it there I would we have had way to much rain so far this year IMBY and I got tons of stuff I could get done this weekend in the yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 41004 off Charleston hit a gust to 45 last hr, so its squally on the east side regardless of the nature of the low, gonna be a wet few days on the SC/NC coast.....Downeastnc, Just to clarify, buoy 41004 is to the NW of the center. Based on recon, this could be declared Ana shortly. However, it still is just Invest 90L as of 11AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Downeastnc, Just to clarify, buoy 41004 is to the NW of the center. Based on recon, this could be declared Ana shortly. However, it still is just Invest 90L as of 11AM. Yeah I dunno why I said east there lol, I was thinking how surprised I was that the western side had so much activity compared to the east...... This WV loops shows why this system will have a hard time being much of anything at this point, if it can get that dry air NE of the center out that will improve its chances significantly. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Going to have to watch the system today if it sends some outer bands into eastern NC and coastal SC there could be a increased risk for small tornados etc....hopefully they don't cancel the recon it looks good on radar however it doesn't have that fully tropical look at all although it is firing and maintaining some storms that appear to be trying to wrap the center.....suspect TS ANA will form there in the next 12-18 hrs. Buoys 41004 ( off Charleston ) and Frying Pan Shoals buoy 41013 both are sustained 30 mph for the last several hrs eastern sc today, there's not much of a tornado threat (nw side) but for those that ultimately end up on the north and northeast quadrant, yes, chances go up quite a bit. Spaghetti plots were of no help regarding future movements. The only thing that's sure is if the system gains tropical characteristics, it will likely be named. Well away from the rain shield in Eastern SC, Ksav and Knbc already sustaining winds over 20 mph gusting over 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 eastern sc today, there's not much of a tornado threat (nw side) but for those that ultimately end up on the north and northeast quadrant, yes, chances go up quite a bit. Spaghetti plots were of no help regarding future movements. The only thing that's sure is if the system gains tropical characteristics, it will likely be named. Well away from the rain shield in Eastern SC, Ksav and Knbc already sustaining winds over 20 mph gusting over 30. This system seems to have plateaued a bit strength wise the winds at the buoys offshore has been constant but not getting any higher and the pressure is steady more or less so its not deepening but the dry air has a lot to do with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 pressure falling again at buoys 41004 and 41013, so we will see if this thing can do anything to get organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 pressure falling again at buoys 41004 and 41013, so we will see if this thing can do anything to get organized. The system has sustained winda strong enough, just a matter of getting enough organization to classify this a (sub)tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Its trying to fire some thunderstorms near the center, we'll see if it can get better organized, definitely windy here at the coast in Jville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 The storm looks to be dying. Good bye Ana chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 The storm looks to be dying. Good bye Ana chances.Lol what storm are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Its trying to fire some thunderstorms near the center, we'll see if it can get better organized, definitely windy here at the coast in Jville. Has some lightning near the center which indicates some strengthening, recon data found surface winds of 44 mph at one spot on the SE side so it is above the TS threshold. GFS says moisture will have a hard time making it anywhere beyond the immediate coast, but if this thing lingers long enough it will cause problems. The storm looks to be dying. Good bye Ana chances. While it may weaken in the near future, good convection looks to fire up Saturday around the CoC so I wouldn't call anything off just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 What a nasty afternoon it has turned into in Savannah with several hours of continuous rain. Temp near 62. So, good news with the cooling temp's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Lol what storm are you looking at? It does look to be dying lol either that or limping to the finish line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 7, 2015 Author Share Posted May 7, 2015 It's already got sustained winds of 45 mph, and 1004 MB pressure. Still not named, because the thunderstorms are not around the center as of now. Will probably be named sub-tropical storm Ana later tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Diurnal minima. More than likely when we the normal nocturnal maxima, renewed convection refires, much like overnight last night. Pretty typical in developing systems like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Diurnal minima. More than likely when we the normal nocturnal maxima, renewed convection refires, much like overnight last night. Pretty typical in developing systems like this one. Yeah the Dmin didn't hurt it to bad, it didn't have a pressure spike it just maintained and it has the dry air issue as well, lets see if Dmax is good to it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 This isnt going to be a hurricane by any standards. but still cool to see this early. ... before nasty nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 7, 2015 Author Share Posted May 7, 2015 This isnt going to be a hurricane by any standards. but still cool to see this early. ... before nasty nino.I wish the nasty niño would hurry up! The 20 days plus with no rain, seems like a raging niño to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I wish the nasty niño would hurry up! The 20 days plus with no rain, seems like a raging niño to me 20 days without rain sounds harsh. everything in your area must be caked with pollen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I wish the nasty niño would hurry up! The 20 days plus with no rain, seems like a raging niño to me Meanwhile here in the Wilmington, NC area it has done nothing but rain. We have Lilly Pads growing in the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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