2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussion

[yotaman]

Looking at our 10 days forecast, it shows big chances of rain from Thursday thru the following Tuesday. I wonder if this has to do with our low off the coast?

[CarolinaCrusher2000]

Maybe some gulf action after next week. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php

[NRVwxfan.]

There's always a study. Getting worse, getting better, getting warmer, getting colder, getting drier, getting wetter.   Getting useless.

Somebody's gotta justify there paycheck i guess. 

[WXinCanton]

invest 99L :/

[WXinCanton]

[WXinCanton]

[WXinCanton]

[Solak]

1. A well-defined low pressure system located over the south-central

Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles north of the northeastern Yucatan

Peninsula is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms

that extends from the eastern Gulf of Mexico southward across

western Cuba and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Upper-level

winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for development

while the system moves northward toward the northern Gulf Coast

during the next couple of days. However, only a slight deviation of

the motion toward the northeast would place the system in less

hostile environmental conditions. Regardless of tropical cyclone

formation, this large disturbance is likely to produce locally heavy

rainfall over portions of the northeastern Gulf Coast, Florida, and

the southeastern United States during the next few days. An Air

Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate

the low on Monday, if necessary. For additional information on this

system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather

Service and products from your local National Weather Service

office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[downeastnc]

TD 11 as well has formed NE of the Bahamas but looks to be out to sea, there were a few more west outputs today versus yesterday but meh....not looking very favorable..... shear yada yada yada

[Solak]

One thing's for sure with TD11... it's going to keep the wave action going through the late week. The entire Carolina coast has been pretty beat up with erosion and coastal flooding from the constant NE flow, lunar high tides, and coastal systems, along with the heavy rain. There's been nothing serious yet, but they even cancelled the Hatteras-Ocracoke ferry for a while over the weekend because Hwy12 on Ocracoke was impassible.

[downeastnc]

TD11 isnt gonna help, its also providing entertainment from the NE folks freaking out over fantansy runs that have 930ish storms slamming NYC/LI.....if it does redevelop further SE then it might actually get pretty darn close to the OBX or even inland over the IBX.....that would be really really bad for the OBX, especially with a potentially active nor'easter season coming up and the beating it has taken this week. At some point we are gonna just have to let mother nature run her course those islands are not suppose to stay put or last long and it cost millions to keep them like they are.

[downeastnc]

Euro with a retrograding ULL over the lower Tenn/Ohio river valley is ineteresting....its exactly what pulled Hugo and Fran in to SC/NC and TD 11's LLC is moving nearly due south now towards the MLC and if that continues it will be interesting to see how the models handle the system if the strong rotation at  26.5N 68.5W does manage to pull the llc to it or if it forms a new LLC under that, although the LLC does seem well organized ATM. That said shear is brutal all over the place right now so chances are this thing will have a hard life no matter what it does.

 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-vis-long.html

​

[Solak]

US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC

5 mins ·

 

Here's the 5 pm update on Tropical Depression #11. Forecast keeps the system offshore to our east and steers it toward New York/New England. We will need to continue to monitor through mid/late week however.

[jburns]

Euro with a retrograding ULL over the lower Tenn/Ohio river valley is ineteresting....its exactly what pulled Hugo and Fran in to SC/NC and TD 11's LLC is moving nearly due south now towards the MLC and if that continues it will be interesting to see how the models handle the system if the strong rotation at  26.5N 68.5W does manage to pull the llc to it or if it forms a new LLC under that, although the LLC does seem well organized ATM. That said shear is brutal all over the place right now so chances are this thing will have a hard life no matter what it does.

 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-vis-long.html

​

 

Not to worry.  In NC, sea rise has been banned.

[downeastnc]

18Z HWRF has the rem of TD11 up near Hudson Bay by next Sunday and the 18Z GFDL has it 350 or so miles SE of Hatteras by next Sunday so that's good agreement right?

 

 

[Solak]

Yep --- kinda close.

 

FWIW, 18z GFS has a 1004mb off the Jersey/LI coast at hour 126.

[Solak]

We have Joaquin...

[HurricaneEric]

 

 

 

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Joaquin, located near the central Bahamas.

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure over the central Atlantic about
850 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing gale-force winds,
but the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is displaced
well to the east of the center. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for the low to acquire more tropical
characteristics for another day or so before development is
hindered by strong upper-level winds associated with Hurricane
Joaquin. Information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

2. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Although upper-level winds are not forecast to be conducive for the
next few days, some slow development is possible next week while the
system moves west or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Berg

 

 

Some areas to look at in the Atlantic. Nothing much, but areas of interest.

 

Question for the forum: you guys think there will be much in terms of named storms for the rest of the 2015 season in the Atlantic? What are your predictions for the rest of the season?

[NCSNOW]

Imo it's way over performed my expectations. I've been very impressed at the amount of business considering we have had su h a strong El nino.

This winter is gonna be the year of the noreaster. Hwy 12 has been and is in fir a rough stretch.

[mackerel_sky]

Second or third day in a row that I've caught the tropical update on TWC , they keep talking about both models showing development S of the Yucatan peninsula in the next 5-10 days, and they said it should drift N and could POSSIBLY get pulled N by one of many cold fronts and may head into the SE! That would be horrible, but something to keep an eye on, due to climatological favored area.

[SN_Lover]

Euro with a retrograding ULL over the lower Tenn/Ohio river valley is ineteresting....its exactly what pulled Hugo and Fran in to SC/NC and TD 11's LLC is moving nearly due south now towards the MLC and if that continues it will be interesting to see how the models handle the system if the strong rotation at  26.5N 68.5W does manage to pull the llc to it or if it forms a new LLC under that, although the LLC does seem well organized ATM. That said shear is brutal all over the place right now so chances are this thing will have a hard life no matter what it does.

 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-vis-long.html

​

whatever the Euro says track wise, thats what i am going with this winter. 

[Solak]

Probably should bring the potential GoM tropical system out of the Fall thread over here into the tropics. Several of us have been alluding to it, Robert's been talking it up for a few days, and now the 'it' is starting to get more social media attention, like this recent post...

 

‏@docdeason 4m4 minutes ago

You’re going to hear alot of chatter about a “Tropical” system affecting the state & us, NEXT Weekend. #etxwx

[mackerel_sky]

Probably should bring the potential GoM tropical system out of the Fall thread over here into the tropics. Several of us have been alluding to it, Robert's been talking it up for a few days, and now the 'it' is starting to get more social media attention, like this recent post...

‏@docdeason 4m4 minutes ago

You’re going to hear alot of chatter about a “Tropical” system affecting the state & us, NEXT Weekend. #etxwx

The one consistant thing in the last few days on the models is that the huge ridge over basically the whole eastern 1/3 of the country. Should keep it going torwards TX and keep the moisture out of the SE, if there is even a storm at all!

[Solak]

Agreed for now. They all seem to keep that 1028+/-  in the same general location. Some want it to shoot up the Ohio Valley, some push it straight up the Mississippi/Midwest. Fun to keep an eye on, with nothing else to follow other than cold and dry.

[Solak]

Today's 00z and 06z GFS both have an offshore system between NC and Bermuda next weekend, and another Mexico/S Texas system at the end of the run.

[Solak]

700 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight in

association with a low pressure area located about 100 miles

southeast of the Turks and Caicos. Surface observations indicate

that gale-force winds have been occurring in brief squalls mainly to

the east of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to be

conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical

depression could form during the next couple of days while it moves

west-northwestward over the Bahamas and then turns northwestward.

Locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds are possible over

Hispaniola today, and over the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern

Bahamas during the next day or so.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[Solak]

100 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization

in association with a low pressure system located just north of

the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. In addition,

satellite images indicate that the circulation of the low is

becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are expected

to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical

depression or a tropical storm is likely to form tonight or on

Monday while the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward

near or over the central and northwestern Bahamas. Locally heavy

rains and gusty winds are possible across the Turks and Caicos and

most of the Bahamas during the next day or so. An Air Force Reserve

hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system

Monday morning.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[Solak]

820 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that

Tropical Depression Twelve has strengthened to Tropical Storm Kate.

The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h)

with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 820 AM EST...1320 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.2N 74.9W

ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM ESE OF CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[Solak]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.5N 75.3W

ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ENE OF CAT ISLAND

ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[Solak]

Glad it's going to stay offshore. I'm ready for some sun.

At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate waslocated near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 76.0 West. Kate ismoving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turntoward the north is expected tonight, followed by a fasternortheastward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the centerof Kate will move away from the northwestern Bahamas tonight.Reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that themaximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecastduring the next day or so.