mackerel_sky Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 TWC released their hurricane forecast recently and they are calling for below climo season, with only 9 named storms, but did mention 1 major hurricane in their forecast. I'm guessing El Niño is playing a role in this season, like last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 I would agree. How long has it been since a hurricane has made landfall on the U.S.? It has been a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 I would agree. How long has it been since a hurricane has made landfall on the U.S.? It has been a very long time. July last year. (Hurricane Arthur) and before that I think Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy back in 2012. I'm assuming you meant the last major hurricane then yea it's been a long time. I was gonna say it was 2008 the last time a major hit the US, but I think it may have been the 2005 hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 yea, last major us landfall was 2005. pretty unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 yea, last major us landfall was 2005. pretty unbelievable. Yep though I hope it somehow continues another 10 years. I certainly wouldn't bet on that or even just three years for that matter. Regardless, due to El Nino, it wouldn't be hard for there not to be a major US hit in 2016. I bet that there will be one somewhere by, say 2018...most likely Gulf based on history. Don't forget that 2004-5 was on the other end.....WAY above normal major hits for a two season period....historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 July last year. (Hurricane Arthur) and before that I think Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy back in 2012. I'm assuming you meant the last major hurricane then yea it's been a long time. I was gonna say it was 2008 the last time a major hit the US, but I think it may have been the 2005 hurricane season. Correct. Thank you for correcting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 From NC to Florida may need to watch to the east later this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 From NC to Florida may need to watch to the east later this week Yes, this NASA / Geos 5 model that has been showing some type of out to sea solution is as of this day's model bringing the system inland without any sign of losing moisture over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 NHC - No change from yesterday. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1000 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form near thenorthwestern Bahamas around midweek. This system could graduallyacquire some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as itmoves generally northward at a slow forward speed. The next SpecialTropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDTTuesday.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 12Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 4, 2015 Author Share Posted May 4, 2015 Yes, this NASA / Geos 5 model that has been showing some type of out to sea solution is as of this day's model bringing the system inland without any sign of losing moisture over time. Looks plausible with that monster , blocking high to the North building in! I wish we could get the inland solution shown here! I need rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 New NAM and GFS are in line running it aground in central SC, meandering it around there until dissipation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Cold Air Damming and a Tropical Storm? Enjoy the fun now everyone before Nino demolishes storms coming off of Africa and Caribbean later this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 New NAM and GFS are in line running it aground in central SC, meandering it around there until dissipation. 12z Canadian is aggressive on the strength, it peaks at 992mb right before making landfall NE of Wilmington, NC. GFS/NAM seem more in line as far as the track is concerned right now. GFS is just way weaker than the NAM. EDIT: I'm guessing this will be one of those scenarios where the further north it goes (more towards NC) the better chance it has of being stronger rather than if it went more south and west (towards SC or GA) since it would have more time over warmer water going to NC. 12z Canadian btw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&AGE=Latest&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=GulfOfMexico-x-x&PRODUCT=ir_images&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&PAGETYPE=static&SIZE=Full&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/GulfOfMexico-x-x/ir_images/goes&ANIM_TYPE=Instant&DISPLAY=Single&CURRENT=20150504.1731.g15.vissr.ir.NorthAmerica-CONUS-East_GulfOfMexico-x-x.x.jpg& Good radar images there of it and it seems like the COC is near the western tip of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 12z Canadian is aggressive on the strength, it peaks at 992mb right before making landfall NE of Wilmington, NC. GFS/NAM seem more in line as far as the track is concerned right now. GFS is just way weaker than the NAM. EDIT: I'm guessing this will be one of those scenarios where the further north it goes (more towards NC) the better chance it has of being stronger rather than if it went more south and west (towards SC or GA) since it would have more time over warmer water going to NC. 12z Canadian btw... The Euro basically has a very weak system that really never develops...looks like it dissipates off the coast. So many possible solutions right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 guys watch out the system in the ATL is apparently a mystery........ http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/mystery-system-brewing-in-the-atlantic-ocean/vi-BBj9ls4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 guys watch out the system in the ATL is apparently a mystery........ http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/mystery-system-brewing-in-the-atlantic-ocean/vi-BBj9ls4 "subtropical which means kind of a hybrid storm"....no no, stop right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Awfully early in the season, but ... and see http://myfloridahurricane.info/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Here's a good link in case you've lost it, forgot about it, or never heard of it... http://www.spaghettimodels.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 An area of low pressure organizing in the Bahamas this evening may become "subtropical" over the next couple of days as it moves near the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas. Hurricane Hunters are planning to investigate the low Wednesday afternoon to see how well organized it has become. Subtropical storms have characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical storms. The risk of heavy rainfall, breezy winds, and rip currents at the beaches will increase if this low develops further. The NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center has the latest information on this system: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 WRAL weather needs to make up their mind about this system. Yesterday they said it should stay far enough away to not impact NC, and today they are saying it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 WRAL weather needs to make up their mind about this system. Yesterday they said it should stay far enough away to not impact NC, and today they are saying it will. To be fair, there's almost no model consistency with this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 To be fair, there's almost no model consistency with this storm... Back in the day a forecast would have been made right or wrong. Of course, those were the days before MMP(met model paralysis). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Yes, there is a lot of back and forth, vagueness, and wishy washy forecasts going on lately with them. It used to be with just the snow, but now forecasts for rain and storms are getting just as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Yes, there is a lot of back and forth, vagueness, and wishy washy forecasts going on lately with them. It used to be with just the snow, but now forecasts for rain and storms are getting just as bad. Part of it is that they changed/are changing their forecasting methodology and are forecasting based upon probabilities derived from ensemble forecasting. They used to be a bit more binary which made it seem less wishy washy. Also, you like to frequently place blame on forecasters for not getting the forecast right. It's kinda hard to do, if the best data you have to rely on is unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Meh the storm is going to have very weak steering flow aloft so there is a lot of question to the exact track......generally the further east the better your chances so if the thing stay right along the coast then most of WRAL's area will get little but if it comes in Charleston moving north then Raleigh gets more....also the type of low and its strength will play a role in how and who see wind and rain. After the recon flights we should get a better group of model runs.....I don't fault any forecaster for being wishy washy at this point I like the forecast from the NWS office in ILM last night, dude was brutally honest SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLYBLOSSOMING OFF THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OFFTHE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP SOMETROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MEANDERS IN THEVICINITY. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE IS MUCHLOWERED CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL...BUT HOPEFULLY SOME OF THIS WILL BEIMPROVED TODAY AS NHC IS PLANNING ITS FIRST RECON FLIGHT INTO THESYSTEM.THAT BEING SAID...I STILL NEED TO WRITE A DISCUSSION AND CREATE AFORECAST EVEN WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS WE CANGLEAN FROM THE SETUP AND FROM THE GUIDANCE...EVEN THOUGH WHOLESALECHANGES CANNOT BE MADE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A LOW PRESSUREWILL DEVELOP...AND THAT IT WILL MEANDER SLOWLY NEAR THE COAST AS ITGETS BLOCKED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THERE IS HIGHCONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL RETROGRADE WEST OR EVEN SW THU/FRI...ANDTHERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PERIODS OF RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVYAT TIMES...WILL IMPACT AT LEAST THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.BEYOND THAT HOWEVER...TIMING...TRACK...INTENSITY...AND OTHER IMPACTS(WIND...CONVECTION...DURATION) ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THENAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG AND TOO FAR NORTH...WHILE THE GFS LIES ONTHE WEAK/SOUTH END OF THE ENVELOPE. AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION OF THEECMWF/CMC MAY BE MOST PRUDENT AT THIS POINT THEN. WILL CONTINUE WITHTHE INHERITED FORECAST AND SHOW HIGHEST POP ON FRIDAY...BUTOTHERWISE ATTM EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAYWITH AT LEAST INCREASING WINDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...SOME OFWHICH AGAIN...MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW CLIMO IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID TO UPR70S. MINS WILL STAY ABOVE CLIMO AS GUSTY WARM WINDS AND CLOUDS KEEPLOWS WELL INTO THE 60S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Brick wants a solid forecast that does not change. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Sucks they canceled recon.........been nice to have that data for the models to chew on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Sucks they canceled recon.........been nice to have that data for the models to chew on 12z Nam keeps it offshore. 12z GFS loops it around into SC. 12z CMC brings it into SC and up through central/eastern NC. Nice consensus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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