Winter of 2015-16 Prediction Discussion

[PB GFI]

For those who may not have seen it, we released our winter forecast on Monday here: https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/11/02/winter-forecast-2015-2016/

 

You 3 did an excellent job . Then again not a shock . 

[uncle W]

if I was making a forecast today for the winter December would be mild and February cold...As of now this is my analog forecast for the winter of 2015-16 in NYC...Numbers are for Central Park...December has a zero % chance of having the biggest snowfall of the season...March has a 44% chance of having the biggest snowstorm of the season...1965-66 is close to the snowfall average...if we get a storm like Feb. 1983 totals could be higher...

analog year........Dec...Jan...Feb...Mar.........winter min...snowfall/big snow&month #of 4" snowfalls

1899-00 temp...38.2...31.8...30.3...33.4............5............13.4"..........6.1"F....2

1905-06 temp...38.9...38.4...32.8...35.6............7............20.0"..........6.5"M....3

1918-19 temp...39.4...35.6...34.9...43.3..........10..............3.8"..........1.4"M....0

1940-41 temp...38.4...29.4...31.1...35.9..........10............39.2"........18.1"M....2

1941-42 temp...38.3...30.7...29.7...43.0............5............11.3"..........3.2"J....0

1951-52 temp...38.6...36.2...36.2...40.2............8............19.7"..........5.8"J....2

1957-58 temp...40.2...31.9...27.4...40.3............3............44.7"........11.8"M....6

1965-66 temp...40.5...32.2...35.1...42.7............8............21.4"..........6.8"J....2

1979-80 temp...41.1...33.7...31.4...41.2..........10............12.8"..........4.6"M....1

1982-83 temp...42.8...34.5...36.4...44.0..........12............27.2"........17.6"F....1

1986-87 temp...39.0...32.3...33.2...45.2............4............23.1"..........8.1"J....3

1987-88 temp...39.5...29.5...35.0...43.6............5............19.1"..........5.8"J....2

1991-92 temp...39.6...35.7...36.4...40.0..........11............12.6"..........6.2"M....1

1994-95 temp...42.2...37.5...31.6...45.0............6............11.8"........10.8"F....1

2006-07 temp...43.6...37.5...28.2...42.2............8............12.6"..........5.5"M....1

2014-15 temp...40.5...29.9...23.9...38.1............2............50.3"..........9.8"J....6

average............40.0...33.6...32.1...40.9............7............21.3"..........8.0"M...2

departures/ave +2.1...+0.5....-3.5....-1.7..........+2............-7.1...........ave

[SnoSki14]

The CFSv2 weeklies for next 5 weeks suck. Above normal heights and 2M's all the way. Just a short wave accident such as Oct. 18-19 (could offer some interest) which when averaged into any of the 7 day blocks it was part of, did no more than make that 7 day block come out near normal, instead of above normal.

Probably a good chance winter is nonexistent until latter January. It should get a lot more active at least soon.

[MJO812]

Probably a good chance winter is nonexistent until latter January. It should get a lot more active at least soon.

We can hope for a transient block to help our cause

[Animal]

from NJ.com

 

Warm temps looks to continue through December

 

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on November 06, 2015 at 2:00 PM, updated November 06, 2015 at 5:55 PM

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With temperatures hovering at near-record levels more common in late-spring this week, winter seems eons away, rather than just around the corner.

But could this mean, after two years of shivering through two miserably cold winters, that we're finally in for a break? Well, yes and no.  

El Niño is in full bloom, and is having a strong influence on weather patterns around the world. This is certainly playing a role in New Jersey's recently balmy mid-fall conditions. 

RELATED: Winter weather forecast roundup

And forecasters now have relatively high confidence that the warmer than average conditions will persist through November and much of December. In fact, the National Weather Service's new experimental four-week forecast puts the northeast at the highest probability in the country for above-normal temperatures. 

Forecasters have relatively high confidence that the warmer-than-average conditions will persist through November and much of December in New Jersey. (John O'Boyle | The Star-Ledger)

"If anything, our confidence has increased on that," said Ken Elliott, a meteorologist at WeatherWorks in Hackettstown. "And that's because things are basically playing out exactly as we thought." 

That said, there are caveats --a lot of them. 

First, no one should expect strings of 75 degree days to continue -- in fact, if New Jersey sees it again this year it would be remarkable.  Autumn is prone to wild temperature swings and that has been on display during the last several weeks.  

Just a few weeks ago, New Jersey experienced its first hard freeze during a weekend where temperatures struggled to get out of the 40s during the day. After ping-ponging around for most of the month, October temperatures ended up being about average. 

"It's kind of easy to have temperatures well above normal or well below normal this time of year," Elliott said. "The range of possibilities this time of year is pretty wide." 

But even if New Jersey ends up basking in springtime warmth through December, don't hold your breath for the rest of winter.  

"People usually think that a warm November and December means a warm winter. Usually, it's usually going to be the exact opposite," said Steven DiMartino, owner of NY NJ PA Weather, based out of Freehold. "If you looks at the analogue years, almost all of the warm Decembers were followed by a cold and active January and February."

While chances are slim that New Jersey will experience a third straight bitter cold winter, December temperatures for the last two years were also above normal, and were followed by two of the coldest January/February periods in recent memory.  

Forecasters also predict a fairly stormy winter through and through. With more cold air present during January and February, this could mean repeated bouts with snow, rain and ice to start 2016.  It's also worth noting that the two most recent years with similar setups  -- 2003 and 2006 -- both included major snowstorms in February.  

"Right now this is all going as expected," DiMartino said. "Which is good news if you like snow."

Stephen Stirling may be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @sstirling. Find him on Facebook.

[Animal]

USA Today hitting the war drum.

 

Record Siberian snow could bode ill for Northeast

Thomas M. Kostigen, Special for USA TODAY6:06 a.m. EST November 7, 2015

(Photo: Josh Reynolds, AP)

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There is a theory about snow in Siberia during the month of October: If there is a lot, it can mean a particularly wicked winter in the northeast United States.

Last month, Siberia experienced record snowfall and the worst blizzard in a decade.

Above-average snow cover in Siberia is believed to affect the now-famous polar vortex and send bitterly cold temperatures to the Northeast. This happens when theArctic Oscillation, a climate pattern, shifts.

USA TODAY

10 things to get your home ready for winter

 

When its winds are strong, the Arctic Oscillation keeps a tight hold on temperatures swirling around the North Pole. When it becomes weakened, or what meteorologists call “negative,” it allows arctic air masses to creep into the mid-latitudes.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) describes it this way: “Air pressure is higher than average over the arctic and lower than average over the mid-latitudes. The jet stream shifts southward of its average latitude.” That steers frigid, polar air southward into North America.

Above-average Siberian snow cover points to a negative oscillation pattern. But not always. And it is especially not certain that will happen this winter. Myriad factors, not the least of which is the strong El Niño being experienced globally, come into play.

DETROIT FREE PRESS

When can you expect your first snowfall of the season?

 

Atmospheric and Environmental Research scientist Judah Cohen, who tracks the Arctic Oscillation and its correlation to U.S winters, wrote on his blog: “It is challenging to anticipate how the final outcome of competing forcings from the tropics and the high latitudes will influence mid-latitude weather.”

He explains that while October snow cover was above normal in Siberia this year, it did not advance as much as the previous two Octobers. Moreover, Arctic sea iceextent remains below normal. Cohen is expecting important pattern changes this month will provide better clues to the winter ahead.

At the moment and for the short-term, he is forecasting a mild pattern. Still, it’s worth checking Arctic Oscillation reports (the Climate Prediction Center provides 14-day forecasts) and taking steps to prepare for the worst.

Here are some things you can do:

• Stack up on wood for your fireplace, ready space heaters and store extra heating fuel. (Always store fuel in a well-ventilated place.)

• Keep winter clothing and extra blankets handy.

• Insulate walls and attics. Weather strip windows and doors. Consider installing storm windows.

• Clear overhanging branches and weak trees. The extra weight of ice can break branches and topple trees.

• Know where water valves are and learn how to close them in case of pipe bursts.

• Have your roof examined to ensure it can withstand the weight of ice and snow. Just one cubic foot of snow can weigh 20 pounds.

• Make sure propane tanks and other hazardous liquids and materials are stored properly in vented areas.

• Find out where local shelters are set up ahead of time. Organizations such as the Red Cross will often provide shelters during cold months.

• Turn your thermostats to 68 degrees. This habit will help you conserve fuel during long-lasting cold spells.

Thomas M. Kostigen is the founder of TheClimateSurvivalist.com and a New York Times bestselling author and journalist. He is the National Geographic author of "Extreme Weather Survival Guide: Understand, Prepare, Survive, Recover" and the NG Kids book, "Extreme Weather: Surviving Tornadoes, Tsunamis, Hailstorms,Thundersnow, Hurricanes and More!" Follow him @weathersurvival, or email [email protected].

[stadiumwave]

JAMSTEC UPDATED

 

 

[SnoSki14]

I don't think January is favorable. Wintry may not come until February. Typical very strong Nino + very positive QBO response...

February could very well be our only shot at legit winter weather and we're probably only going to have a 2-3 week window for something.

I could also see Feb failing to produce and we end up with a warmer version of 72/73 winter.

But yes it's well known that Nov and Dec were supposed to torch anyway and that's going according to plan.