CIK62 Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I was just looking at an experimental long range prediction site ('Kyle MacRitchie') and it did not look good for us if you like cold weather. While temps. over Hudson Bay (our best source of cold air) are expected to be slightly bn till mid-Nov., there is a steady rise for the next 3 weeks after that into the second week of December----then a leveling off---(well it could hardly stay at +18F or get higher in any given locale for really long time) but it continues to end of experimental run in the last week of the year! Meanwhile as would be expected based on the jet stream wavelengths in winter, Seattle WA. stays bn. during this stretch. AccuWeather 30 day+ outlook indicates just 4bn days out of the whole month. This should effectively end a streak of 3 bn Novembers here. -2.4, -2.5, -3.8 then a +4.2 in 2011 as a reminder. Given the outlook for Nov, Dec and notwithstanding the normal month of June we experienced (normal is an aberration nowadays) it looks like 9 straight 'ab' months are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Western M/C looking strong here . https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/FirstDateSnow_CONUS_lrg.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 What is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 What is that? NCEP map of the earliest snowfall . M/C = Monmouth county in NJ . Western Monmouth and Middlesex show up early . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 I'll make sure I keep a couple pair of shorts out this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 I'll make sure I keep a couple pair of shorts out this winter It's honestly what a lot of people have been predicting. Moderately above precip and moderately above temps. Probably a pattern with a lot of big wrapped up coastal storms and Southern sliders, typical of an El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/10/nj-strong-weather-2015-2016-winter.html?m=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 "I am El Niño": https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/661611887226830849 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 YAWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Last years CFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Last years Jamstec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 YAWN However, not exactly headed in the right direction from prior forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 However, not exactly headed in the right direction from prior forecasts. Its forecast from last Sept , it got colder ( east ) as we got closer . I like the Euro at 500 , it makes the most sense to me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Its forecast from last Sept , it got colder ( east ) as we got closer . I like the Euro at 500 , it makes the most sense to me . This year it has gotten warmer for the Northeast as we have gotten closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 This year it has gotten warmer for the Northeast as we have gotten closer. It`s Aug - Sept - Oct last year did the same thing . It did not get colder until Nov . I like the Euro seasonal the best . If it loses that look t 500 , I will revisit . I did not like NOV - DEC from early on , I am stuck on Jan and Feb being the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 It`s Aug - Sept - Oct last year did the same thing . It did not get colder until Nov . I like the Euro seasonal the best . If it loses that look t 500 , I will revisit . I did not like NOV - DEC from early on , I am stuck on Jan and Feb being the best Do you know when November comes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Do you know when November comes out? Usually not until the 12th-15th period for the JAMSTEC and JMA. ECMWF also around the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Usually not until the 12th-15th period for the JAMSTEC and JMA. ECMWF also around the 15th. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Usually not until the 12th-15th period for the JAMSTEC and JMA. ECMWF also around the 15th.Euro long range comes on the 8th of every month to paid subscribers and on the 15th of the month on the Euro site. The Eurosips are out on the 15th for paid subscribers and on the 22nd of the month on the Euro site. The good news is that CoastalWx or Will over in the NE forum do a great job in describing both runs when they come out for paid subscribers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 it certainly isn't 1997-98 but it could be worse...I doubt that but you never know...that year started out with a negative ao and nao and had a cool November...the record for the least amount of snow from day one to the end of winter is held by el nino winters... 1/09/2007.....0 1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace 1/19/2000/73/66...trace 1/20/1973.....trace 1/29/1995.....0.2" 2/04/1998.....0.5" 3/22/1919.....2.4" 3/28/1973.....2.8" to end... 2006-07 holds the record for the latest trace on record...1/10...1973 holds the record for the latest measurable snowfall...1/29...1995 holds the record least amount of snowfall at the end of January...1998 and 1919 holds the record for the latest 1" snowfall...1919 had two 1" snowfalls in late March otherwise it would be the least snowiest year...el nino years can be horrible or great like 2009-10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Its forecast from last Sept , it got colder ( east ) as we got closer . I like the Euro at 500 , it makes the most sense to me . That makes no sense at all for an El Nino, that almost looks like 96-97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 That makes no sense at all for an El Nino, that almost looks like 96-97. I missed the - EPO early on last year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 I missed the - EPO early on last year . Its depiction over SE Australia is insanely odd too. I don't think SYD and MEL have ever had a below normal summer in history during an El Nino, that run of the Euro seasonal may be out to lunch,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Its depiction over SE Australia is insanely odd too. I don't think SYD and MEL have ever had a below normal summer in history during an El Nino, that run of the Euro seasonal may be out to lunch,. I like the Euro seasonal . Record R4 warming with forcing bet 160 - 180 and all that warm water in the EP region , you should pull that NEG SW in the GOA , that will pull the ridge onto the west shores of HB after Jan . The Euro only shows a broad are of N at 2 M but I really only look at its 500 . That makes way more sense than the CFS that pushes that ridge too far east in Canada because the trough is displaced too far east . We saw this with the US models last year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 I can`t post the Euro but this is ( close ) to its J-M looks like at 500mb ( not 2m) . It`s 2m show a broad area of N , but if you look at last years Euro seasonal it got the 500 correct but it has a warm bias at 2m and was not below normal in the Northeast or NE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 That makes no sense at all for an El Nino, that almost looks like 96-97. That's last year's forecast, not this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Unfortunately this period of strong +EPO/-PNA should reduce Pacific SSTs and the blob significantly, making it harder to get the SST feedback into +PNA later on in winter. I'm hoping this regime is only a temporary result of the MJO and declining AAM and not a 6-8 week long period of low heights dominating the Pacific/Amer West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 The CFSv2 weeklies for next 5 weeks suck. Above normal heights and 2M's all the way. Just a short wave accident such as Oct. 18-19 (could offer some interest) which when averaged into any of the 7 day blocks it was part of, did no more than make that 7 day block come out near normal, instead of above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 For those who may not have seen it, we released our winter forecast on Monday here: https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/11/02/winter-forecast-2015-2016/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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