40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 You have CA warm and dry during a strong Nino? Surely you must be joking. If the AO/NAO are negative, it isn't too far fetched. May not be your typical split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 You have CA warm and dry during a strong Nino? Surely you must be joking. Might not be too far off if the UKMET is right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 If the AO/NAO are negative, it isn't too far fetched. May not be your typical split flow. some years were dry in Cally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 The UKMET seems unreasonably suppressed. I mean, you want to cut it off at Phili, I'd hate it, but could fathom it...but having a gradient at Charleston, SC is nuts imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 2013 and 2014 winter forecast , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Signs point to a mild/wet winter but that doesn't mean we can't get snow. I'm sure they'll be potential as long as the cold and storms are timed well. We may even get one big storm in the mix a la PD I. At the very least it should be an active season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 There are NO Signs that point to a mild/wet winter but that doesn't mean we can't get snow. I'm sure they'll be potential as long as the cold and storms are timed well. We may even get one big storm in the mix a la PD I. At the very least it should be an active season. FYPThe guidance is not warm. Most show N Temps with AN precipitation . We live at 40 N on the coast , it's never all snow . But the set up does not scream warm and wet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 CNN is running a link on their web portal. Big Snows this winter in the north east. Seems that the idea of a warm snow less winter is still open for discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Of course its still open for discussion! It's October 16th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 FYP The guidance is not warm. Most show N Temps with AN precipitation . We live at 40 N on the coast , it's never all snow . But the set up does not scream warm and wet . I thought guidance skewed AN for the northeast. Anyway I'm fully on board with another backloaded winter where latter January and February deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I thought guidance skewed AN for the northeast. Anyway I'm fully on board with another backloaded winter where latter January and February deliver. Your last sentence is exactly where the guidance and I believe we are headed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Your last sentence is exactly where the guidance and I believe we are headed . The most uncertain element to me is December. I'm not completely sold on a benign holiday month should the AO/NAO hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 The most uncertain element to me is December. I'm not completely sold on a benign holi0ay month should the AO/NAO hold serve. I am up against you Tom and Bistardi . I am the only one punting. Nov should be AN, I just think that carries through into Dec. I would love to be wrong , but strong ENSO events like to reward us A bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I am up against you Tom and Bistardi . I am the only one punting. Nov should be AN, I just think that carries through into Dec. I would love to be wrong , but strong ENSO events like to reward us A bit later. Whoa, whoa....I was just posing the question....I'm not ready to call for that. December hinges upon the AO/NAO during stronger + ENSO events. Granted, most have featured +AO/NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 if the ao/nao is negative in December there's a good possibility the month could be on the cold side...I showed how the first nine coldest el nino Decembers since 1950 all had a negative monthly ao/nao...NYC needs a negative ao and nao for a cold December as this table shows...only Dec 1957 had a 6" or greater snowfall with a positive ao/nao... December temperature, snowfall, NDJ ONI, Dec. AO NAO 1958..........29.4...............3.8"..........0.6..........-1.687....-0.70 1976..........29.9...............5.1"..........0.7..........-2.074....-1.60 1963..........31.2.............11.3"..........1.0..........-1.178....-1.92 1969..........33.4...............6.8"..........0.6..........-1.856....-0.28 1968..........34.3...............7.0"..........0.9..........-0.783....-1.40 1977..........35.7...............0.4"..........0.7..........-0.240....-1.00 2009..........35.9.............12.4"..........1.3..........-3.413....-1.93 2002..........36.0.............11.0"..........1.1..........-1.592....-0.94 1997..........38.3................T.............2.3..........-0.071....-0.96 1951..........38.4...............3.3"..........0.6...........1.987.....1.32 2004..........38.4...............3.0"..........0.7...........1.230.....1.21 1972..........38.5................T.............1.9...........1.238.....0.19 1986..........39.0...............0.6"..........1.1...........0.060.....0.99 1987..........39.5...............2.6"..........1.1..........-0.534.....0.32 1991..........39.6...............0.7"..........1.4...........1.613.....0.46 1957..........40.2...............8.7"..........1.6...........0.828.....0.12 1965..........40.5................T.............1.5...........0.163.....1.37 2014..........40.5...............1.0"..........0.6...........0.413.....1.86 1979..........41.1...............3.5"..........0.6...........1.295.....1.001953..........41.3................T.............0.7...........0.575....-0.47 1994..........42.2................T.............1.0...........0.894.....2.02 1982..........42.8...............3.0"..........2.1...........0.967.....1.78 2006..........43.6................T.............1.0...........2.282.....1.34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Whoa, whoa....I was just posing the question....I'm not ready to call for that. December hinges upon the AO/NAO during stronger + ENSO events. Granted, most have featured +AO/NAO. OK that's fair. I punted a while ago and I am very well aware that blocking could do me in .Bring it , I would love to be wrong here. But it's possible I could be wrong. I am just a fan of Jan and Feb more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I am up against you Tom and Bistardi . I am the only one punting. Nov should be AN, I just think that carries through into Dec. I would love to be wrong , but strong ENSO events like to reward us A bit later. Whoa, whoa....I was just posing the question....I'm not ready to call for that. December hinges upon the AO/NAO during stronger + ENSO events. Granted, most have featured +AO/NAO. Yeah, just to clarify my position as well Paul - I have no hard thoughts on the winter's evolution just yet. I was simply playing devil's advocate by noting that an atypical cool December is possible, dependent upon the early season behavior of the northern annular mode, the NAO, etc., in concert with a fairly weak sample size. I like to wait until at least early November before putting the full forecast together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 OK boys thanks for clarifying. It's possible I punted too early but I am gona stick anyway. Happy to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Yeah, just to clarify my position as well Paul - I have no hard thoughts on the winter's evolution just yet. I was simply playing devil's advocate by noting that an atypical cool December is possible, dependent upon the early season behavior of the northern annular mode, the NAO, etc., in concert with a fairly weak sample size. I like to wait until at least early November before putting the full forecast together. Ditto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 OK boys thanks for clarifying. It's possible I punted too early but I am gona stick anyway. Happy to be wrong. I'd agree that January, and especially Feb/March hold much more promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 if the ao/nao is negative in December there's a good possibility the month could be on the cold side...I showed how the first nine coldest el nino Decembers since 1950 all had a negative monthly ao/nao...NYC needs a negative ao and nao for a cold December as this table shows...only Dec 1957 had a 6" or greater snowfall with a positive ao/nao... December temperature, snowfall, NDJ ONI, Dec. AO NAO 1958..........29.4...............3.8"..........0.6..........-1.687....-0.70 1976..........29.9...............5.1"..........0.7..........-2.074....-1.60 1963..........31.2.............11.3"..........1.0..........-1.178....-1.92 1969..........33.4...............6.8"..........0.6..........-1.856....-0.28 1968..........34.3...............7.0"..........0.9..........-0.783....-1.40 1977..........35.7...............0.4"..........0.7..........-0.240....-1.00 2009..........35.9.............12.4"..........1.3..........-3.413....-1.93 2002..........36.0.............11.0"..........1.1..........-1.592....-0.94 1997..........38.3................T.............2.3..........-0.071....-0.96 1951..........38.4...............3.3"..........0.6...........1.987.....1.32 2004..........38.4...............3.0"..........0.7...........1.230.....1.21 1972..........38.5................T.............1.9...........1.238.....0.19 1986..........39.0...............0.6"..........1.1...........0.060.....0.99 1987..........39.5...............2.6"..........1.1..........-0.534.....0.32 1991..........39.6...............0.7"..........1.4...........1.613.....0.46 1957..........40.2...............8.7"..........1.6...........0.828.....0.12 1965..........40.5................T.............1.5...........0.163.....1.37 2014..........40.5...............1.0"..........0.6...........0.413.....1.86 1979..........41.1...............3.5"..........0.6...........1.295.....1.00 1953..........41.3................T.............0.7...........0.575....-0.47 1994..........42.2................T.............1.0...........0.894.....2.02 1982..........42.8...............3.0"..........2.1...........0.967.....1.78 2006..........43.6................T.............1.0...........2.282.....1.34 all 16 coldest Decembers in NYC since 1950 with various enso's had a negative ao...20 of the first 21 coldest Decembers had a negative ao for December...1983 was the exception being a little positive for the month...five had a positive nao out of the first 21...1960 was barely positive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 the 21 warmest Decembers since 1950 had a positive ao 17 years...2001, 2012, 1996, 1987 had a negative ao for the month...21 of the first 25 warmest Decembers had a positive nao...2001, 1953, 1996 and 1978 was on the negative side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 PB GFI, on 15 Oct 2015 - 4:48 PM, said: The CPC hasn't predicted a below normal winter in the east/northeast now in 22 years....9 of those winters finished below normal...have they ever been questioned about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I don't think it's a bad forecast I like N with AN precipitation for the area . I think if they just said A or B it would look better. But they imply it. And equal chances looks like the Euro's N so it's in line. The Euro seasonal tends to do the same thing fyi. It's area of N at 2 M sometimes break BN. But it's rare that you see BN on it. It's sometimes used more because it's better at 500mb and from there you can usually figure out the temp anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 One day Siberian snow cover explosion:Yesterday:Today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 snowfalls 8" or more for December in NYC...if we get one the odds favor more snow after December...year......8"+ snowfall...season snowfall/after December...later heavy snowfalls...1872........18.0".....................60.3"................39.8"......................6.0"1886..........8.1".....................32.9"................22.6"......................none 6" or more1909..........8.0".....................27.2"................17.4"......................10.0"1912........11.4".....................15.3"..................3.9"......................none1916........12.7".....................50.7"................36.2"......................6.7" 6.5"1917..........9.1".....................34.5"................20.1"......................5.9"1933........11.2".....................52.0"................36.6"......................9.8" 9.3" 7.6"1945..........8.3".....................31.4"................12.1"......................7.5"1947........26.4".....................63.2"................33.6"......................5.7"1948........16.0".....................46.6"................21.3"......................9.4"1957..........8.0".....................44.7"................36.0"......................7.9" 11.8"1959........13.7".....................39.2"................22.9"......................14.7"1960........15.2".....................54.7"................36.1"......................9.9" 17.4"2000........12.0".....................35.0"................21.6"......................6.0"2003........14.0".....................42.0"................22.2"......................10.3"2009........10.9".....................51.4"................39.0"......................10.0" 20.9"2010........20.0".....................61.9"................41.8"......................19.0" 9.1"14 of 16 were above seasonal average...1909-10 was almost average but had a 10" storm in January...1912-13 was the only year that was benign after December...13 of 17 years had a 6" storm after December...9 of 17 years had a storm 9" or more after December...14 of 17 years had 20 or more inches of snow after December...7 of 17 years had over 50" of seasonal snowfall...10 of 17 years had over 40"..."1926 had a 7.9" storm and that year ended up with 22.3"...1995 had a 7.7" storm and that year ended up with 75.6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Reading through the NE sub-forum I was reminded of this : http://wxmidwest.blogspot.com/2014/10/a-winter-north-atlantic-oscillation.html So for sh**s and giggles, I decided to check it out for this year thus far to see what it looks like. Brief summary, for the month of October, over 1013mb would favor winter +NAO, less than 1013mb would favor winter -NAO (according to link). Just to be clear, I'm not predicting anything, I only wanted to see what it looks like thus far and I'm deciding to post it. Also, this method is only for El Nino years. Here is the box in question from the link(65N-30N/160E-140W), this is climo. From this I'm figuring 1013mb is appx climo. This is where we are as of 10/23 (anomaly) Now check out that area on the Euro-ens for the next couple of days Now, after looking at all of that. I'm inclined to think that the month would finish below climo, or below 1013mb in that zone (we'll see). Which would suggest a winter average -NAO. Of course, we won't know the final number until the month is over. Now, I don't know how effective this method is nor am I calling for anything. I'm merely speculating here to satisfy my own curiosity, and I felt like sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Thank you so much for doing that. I actually brought that up yesterday because I was disappointed that this fall has seemingly lacked any mention of it. Not that I didn't already have a good idea of what it would indicate. ; ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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