Winter of 2015-16 Prediction Discussion

[dmillz25]

Instead of just saying no, explain why not?

It depends on the set up of the Aluetian low. Further S and W it is, the more likely you have a -epo with heights into nw Canada. That coupled with a -ao,NAO will suppress the stj. Now if the low sets up in the GOA then we would need the -ao,nao, if not its over. Will there be warm shots? Yeah but it's looking like that would be.in Dec and a part of Jan

[dmillz25]

Was that a good enough info or would you like to further elaborate PB?

[IsentropicLift]

It depends on the set up of the Aluetian low. Further S and W it is, the more likely you have a -epo with heights into nw Canada. That coupled with a -ao,NAO will suppress the stj. Now if the low sets up in the GOA then we would need the -ao,nao, if not its over. Will there be warm shots? Yeah but it's looking like that would be.in Dec and a part of Jan

I don't see how either of those scenarios is ideal. Either the Southern jet is suppressed and we end up high and dry most of the time or it's not in which case we end up warm and wet. I guess the most ideal scenario would be a further North Aluetian low and a -AO/NAO. 

 

I would welcome a wild and wet pattern. Anything to breakup the monotony of the horrendous last 7 months.

[PB GFI]

Was that a good enough info or would you like to further elaborate PB?

No dude , you did fine.

Iso, no 2 NINO s are the same. You have DL forcing , warm water in the EPO region and guidance that sticks a big ridge on the west shores of Hudson Bay. You will have a STJ and a trough in the means In the SE and MA.

You run the risk of being really wet and just cold enough J thru M

[UnionWeatherWx]

I don't see how either of those scenarios is ideal. Either the Southern jet is suppressed and we end up high and dry most of the time or it's not in which case we end up warm and wet. I guess the most ideal scenario would be a further North Aluetian low and a -AO/NAO. 

 

I would welcome a wild and wet pattern. Anything to breakup the monotony of the horrendous last 7 months.

Flooding rains as in what happened in SC? Is that really a possibility in the winter months? 

[dmillz25]

I don't see how either of those scenarios is ideal. Either the Southern jet is suppressed and we end up high and dry most of the time or it's not in which case we end up warm and wet. I guess the most ideal scenario would a further North Aluetian low and a -AO/NAO.

I would welcome a wild and wet pattern. Anything to breakup the monotony of the horrendous last 7 months.

Confluence is key as well with high pressures that set up in se Canada or at the lakes

[IsentropicLift]

No dude , you did fine.

Iso, no 2 NINO s are the same. You have DL forcing , warm water in the EPO region and guidance that sticks a big ridge on the west shores of Hudson Bay. You will have a STJ and a trough in the means In the SE and MA.

You run the risk of being really wet and just cold enough J thru M

Thanks for the info.

 

It sounds like we might get into a strong gradient pattern then. That would be good for overrunning. 

[IsentropicLift]

Flooding rains as in what happened in SC? Is that really a possibility in the winter months? 

Nobody is talking about what happened in South Carolina. That was an anomaly if there ever was one.

 

You can get a cut off low any day of the year, but that was being fed tropical moisture from a cat 4 hurricane.

[PB GFI]

I don't see how either of those scenarios is ideal. Either the Southern jet is suppressed and we end up high and dry most of the time or it's not in which case we end up warm and wet. I guess the most ideal scenario would be a further North Aluetian low and a -AO/NAO. 

 

I would welcome a wild and wet pattern. Anything to breakup the monotony of the horrendous last 7 months.

 

 

See , i didn`t want to do this , you sucked me into this Ha.  You want the NEG in the GOA SW not North , the further SW the vortex is the further west you pull the ridge back in Canada and that opens up cold air to run down the backside of the ridge in the form of HP through the lakes .

 

If there is a trough in the SE and the ridge is far enough west then cold air has to sink to the base of the trough .

Remember no guidance see a SE ridge .

Only the CFS IS WARM as it noses the ridge east of HB , but it is by itself .Below is the NMME at 500 it is very close to the Euro seasonal J- M 

 

 

[PB GFI]

However we will be AN  in terms of precip on the EC ,  so we will see rain , we always do . But with that pattern come JAN into FEB , IT`S ON . 

[IsentropicLift]

However we will be AN on the EC ,  so we will see rain , we always do . But with that pattern come JAN into FEB , IT`S ON . 

Thanks, with lower heights over the Southeast I see a lot of positively tilted troughs. Could be a big year for the Southeast.

[UnionWeatherWx]

Nobody is talking about what happened in South Carolina. That was an anomaly if there ever was one.

 

You can get a cut off low any day of the year, but that was being fed tropical moisture from a cat 4 hurricane.

I was using it as an example. No reason to bite so fast.

[IsentropicLift]

I was using it as an example. No reason to bite so fast.

You normally don't get that much instability during the Winter months and the the more dense air is less capable of holding moisture.

 

Sorry if I came across as gruff. 

[nzucker]

 

This is still a far from ideal set-up, looks like the Canadian ridge is too far east and too far south. You'd rather see that ridge over AK and Yukon bringing some cross-polar flow into play, as well as having the NAO block more atop Greenland rather than near Hudson Bay. This is especially true for northern areas that need access to arctic air to stay below normal in the winter.This looks like a set-up where the PV sits over Siberia and Canada is stuffed with high heights....will bring some troughs into the Southeast/Mid-Atantic sure, but they won't be super cold.

[dmillz25]

This is still a far from ideal set-up, looks like the Canadian ridge is too far east and too far south. You'd rather see that ridge over AK and Yukon bringing some cross-polar flow into play, as well as having the NAO block more atop Greenland rather than near Hudson Bay. This is especially true for northern areas that need access to arctic air to stay below normal in the winter.This looks like a set-up where the PV sits over Siberia and Canada is stuffed with high heights....will bring some troughs into the Southeast/Mid-Atantic sure, but they won't be super cold.

It looks cold enough for snow in the northeast. It's a decent set up

[PB GFI]

This is still a far from ideal set-up, looks like the Canadian ridge is too far east and too far south. You'd rather see that ridge over AK and Yukon bringing some cross-polar flow into play, as well as having the NAO block more atop Greenland rather than near Hudson Bay. This is especially true for northern areas that need access to arctic air to stay below normal in the winter.This looks like a set-up where the PV sits over Siberia and Canada is stuffed with high heights....will bring some troughs into the Southeast/Mid-Atantic sure, but they won't be super cold.

That's right. You will not be super cold this winter. As a matter of fact super cold is not modeled anywhere. So I'm not looking for it.

When you have a raging ENSO event you have to be thankful you even even see this. If not for that DL forcing and the Neg in the GOA that far SW you would stick a Pacific fire house on the WC and you would just pull the shades down.

2 points here. 1 the center of the highest heights are on the west shore of Hudson bay. The euro is actually west of the NMNE I only used it because it was a close interpretation at 500mb .

It's important because the further W it is the better chance you get cross polar flow involved. Source region matters.

2 . With a trough in the means in the SE you will roll HP down the backside of the ridge so it will sink to the base of the trough.

.You don't need super cold, with a STJ and S storm track , you just need to be cold enough. What's plus 1 or 2 SD in Manitoba is BN in the MA and NE and normal for S New England

So many of us think N and D are weak but once into J into F and prob early M we get into a quasi.good winter.

We will be lucky if the Euro at 500 is correct . If you like winter that is.

[dmillz25]

That's right. You will not be super cold this winter. As a matter of fact super cold is not modeled anywhere. So don't look for it.

When you have a raging ENSO event you have to be thankful you even even see this. If not for that DL forcing and the Neg in the GOA that far SW you would stick a Pacific fire house on the WC and you would just pull the shades down.

2 points here. 1 the center of the highest heights are on the west shore of Hudson bay. The euro is actually west of the NMNE I only used it because it was a close interpretation at 500mb .

It's important because the further W it is the better chance you get cross polar flow involved. Source region matters.

2 . With a trough in the means in the SE you will roll HP down the backside of the ridge so it will sink to the base of the trough.

.You don't need super cold, with a STJ and S storm track , you just need to be cold enough. What's plus 1 or 2 SD in Manitoba is BN in the MA and NE and normal for S New England

So many of us think N and D are weak but once into J into F and prob early M we get into a quasi.good winter.

We will be lucky if the Euro at 500 is correct . If you like winter that is.

Yup. I would take mid 20$ to low 30s with heavy snow any day

[uncle W]

there have been a few el nino or weak positive winters that started out mild and then got progressively colder with February the coldest month...

season.....Dec...Jan...Feb...snowfall after 1/31...seasonal snowfall...

2014-15...40.5...29.9...23.9..........32.2"..........50.3"

2006-07...43.6...37.5...28.2............9.8"..........12.4"

1994-95...42.2...37.5...31.6..........11.6"..........11.8"

1979-80...41.1...33.7...31.4............7.3"..........12.8"

1972-73...38.5...35.5...32.5............1.0"............2.8"

1957-58...40.2...31.9...27.4..........29.8"..........44.7"

1941-42...38.3...30.7...29.7............4.6"..........11.3"

1905-06...38.9...38.4...32.8..........17.5"..........20.0"

1899-00...38.2...31.8...30.3..........12.3"..........13.4"

some other years had a cold December and colder February...1977-78 was one...1986-87 had a mild December but cold January and almost as cold February...1940-41 was like that...the cold Decembers was aided by a negative AO/NAO...the colder the month the lower the ao on average most of the time...

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't know why people keep rehashing the fact that it won't be really cold this winter under the guise that they are adding value to the discussion.

 

Thanks for the breaking news...

 

 

Said last spring.

[mitchnick]

there have been a few el nino or weak positive winters that started out mild and then got progressively colder with February the coldest month...

season.....Dec...Jan...Feb...snowfall after 1/31...seasonal snowfall...

2014-15...40.5...29.9...23.9..........32.2"..........50.3"

2006-07...43.6...37.5...28.2............9.8"..........12.4"

1994-95...42.2...37.5...31.6..........11.6"..........11.8"

1979-80...41.1...33.7...31.4............7.3"..........12.8"

1972-73...38.5...35.5...32.5............1.0"............2.8"

1957-58...40.2...31.9...27.4..........29.8"..........44.7"

1941-42...38.3...30.7...29.7............4.6"..........11.3"

1905-06...38.9...38.4...32.8..........17.5"..........20.0"

1899-00...38.2...31.8...30.3..........12.3"..........13.4"

some other years had a cold December and colder February...1977-78 was one...1986-87 had a mild December but cold January and almost as cold February...1940-41 was like that...the cold Decembers was aided by a negative AO/NAO...the colder the month the lower the ao on average most of the time...

At least for the Mid Atlantic, those monthly maps look identical to the Euro October forecasts for December and January. February's forecast is not that cold, but doesn't need to be.

[PB GFI]

Compliments of DT ,  Siberian snow cover looks to be getting off to a fast start . 

 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

[Superstorm93]

Lets see if the "positive PNA in October" theory works out again

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Compliments of DT ,  Siberian snow cover looks to be getting off to a fast start . 

 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

The SAI/OPI are pretty big because they will essentially act as the deciding factor for me with regard to the AO/NAO this season.

[PB GFI]

The SAI/OPI are pretty big because they will essentially act as the deciding factor for me with regard to the AO/NAO this season.

I am looking to the AO July /winter correlation as well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am looking to the AO July /winter correlation as well.

Yea, that is in the books already.

[WeatherFeen2000]

[IsentropicLift]

You have CA warm and dry during a strong Nino? Surely you must be joking.

[uncle W]

July 2015's monthly AO number was -1.180 which is one of the lowest on record...October's AO so far has been negative and the forecast is more of the same...I found only three years that were in the top ten lowest for July and October...they are 1960, 1968 and 2009...1960-61 speaks for itself but the ao was positive in February and March...1968 and 2009 were el nino years and the AO was way negative during the winter months...It remains to be seen how low the ao will be for October but if it happens a mild December might be in trouble...

[NYY_2]

lol tony

[40/70 Benchmark]

July 2015's monthly AO number was -1.180 which is one of the lowest on record...October's AO so far has been negative and the forecast is more of the same...I found only three years that were in the top ten lowest for July and October...they are 1960, 1968 and 2009...1960-61 speaks for itself but the ao was positive in February and March...1968 and 2009 were el nino years and the AO was way negative during the winter months...It remains to be seen how low the ao will be for October but if it happens a mild December might be in trouble...

I was just contemplating that aloud in the NYC el nino thread.

Nearing the home stretch of final tweaks before score keeping starts.