uncle W Posted September 13, 2015 Share Posted September 13, 2015 interesting newspaper article from the Brooklyn Eagle in 1902 after the big blizzard on Feb. 17th 1902...it looks like Long Island got the brunt of this storm...it must of been a wild storm east of the city... http://fultonhistory...cale - 1149.pdf http://fultonhistory.com/Newspapers%207/Brooklyn%20NY%20Daily%20Eagle/Brooklyn%20NY%20Daily%20Eagle%201902%20Grayscale/Brooklyn%20NY%20Daily%20Eagle%201902%20Grayscale%20-%201150.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 13, 2015 Share Posted September 13, 2015 Looks like the 5400m THK line spends an inordinate amount of its time in the next 7 weeks over Hudson Bay. The analog does show a snowstorm on Thanksgiving Day, however. LOL I realize how flimsy this analysis is, but I would feel better if that THK was showing up more often to our south over the next 50 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Good evening folks i now reside in Port St Lucie Fla. my snow days are history so i'll experience them through your eyes,hurricane season has a whole new meaning take the good with the bad see ya. Say Hello to Cespedes down there during Mets spring training! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/Sure hope it does better than last year. Even its Nov. forecast from last year was very bad for NE in particular. No where near cold or wet enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 May you enjoy many years of warmth and peace. My zip 112 retirement co-op window faces the Verrazano Bridge. The primary home faces (view from the top floor and roof) the Freedom Tower.(considering extremes and cut offs, I may still be considered a snowbird) I'll spend some time, December through March, tracking the Rain/Snow line. There are some who are rather crass....but Rclab has always epitomized class...a gentleman of refinement and distinction... Nice to see you again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Accuweather released its Winter prediction today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 You could ask a 12 year old to draw you up a similar map. It's incredibly vague and states the obvious for many places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 You could ask a 12 year old to draw you up a similar map. It's incredibly vague and states the obvious for many places. agree. thats embarrassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 What the hell is that? For a professional weather company, that looks sh!tty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 "Not as brutal" for Boston, could be an 80 inch winter and -2 departure. I think they would sign up for that "not as brutal." I'd take 40 and a -2. That's much less brutal for Central Park. Also, maybe that orange part of the map ought to include the whole CONUS. If it's going to be a garbage forecast, it might as well be right. That forecast makes the farmer's almanac one look like the schematic for an iPhone 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 You could ask a 12 year old to draw you up a similar map. It's incredibly vague and states the obvious for many places. Tony loves snow was telling the truth . They do rip off his material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Yeah those maps are useless...I believe their maps with actual departure predictions are available on the pro site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Euro seasonal update J-M . Has not changed . There is still a deep NEG S of the Aleutians with a big POS centered just WEST of Hudson Bay , with a trough extending through the S with the NEG focused from TEX into the SE . Can`t post , but it looks good . are you sure? https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/652133883576619008 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 46m46 minutes ago The new ECMWF forecast is basically a Nov to Jan blowtorch type pattern for northern US and Europe. Feb is typical but nothing special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 are you sure? https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/652133883576619008 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 46m46 minutes ago The new ECMWF forecast is basically a Nov to Jan blowtorch type pattern for northern US and Europe. Feb is typical but nothing special Also, HM said it's showing a very positive WPO and NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Less spewing tweets, and more critical thinking. Sorry, I do not see a PAC fire hose on the euro depiction. I disagree with him....just like I disagreed with WSI about a straight up modoki. He is also reading the verbatim 2m temps off of a model several months out. Ill advised endeavor several days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 are you sure? https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/652133883576619008 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 46m46 minutes ago The new ECMWF forecast is basically a Nov to Jan blowtorch type pattern for northern US and Europe. Feb is typical but nothing special Jan - looks good , Feb looks great , March looks good. Nov - Dec are warm but we have been saying this from months ago , but we focused on J- M as per the orig post . Pull up the 500 from J- M and lets Disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Less spewing tweets, and more critical thinking. Sorry, I do not see a PAC fire hose on the euro depiction. I disagree with him....just like I disagreed with WSI about a straight up modoki. He is also reading the verbatim 2m temps off of a model several months out. Ill advised endeavor several days out. First of all, are we all in agreement that GOA low position is paramount?? Good. I am at work, but someone pull up a D-M composite of 2003/2010, and 1983/1997 composite. Now observe the placement of the GOA low on the very recently updated EURO seasonal. You be the judge regarding which of the two historic composites is the better (not exact) analog in that regard. HM....great meteorologist having a terrible day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Also, HM said it's showing a very positive WPO and NAO In December. Look up retrograde in the dictionary....you will see the EURO seasonal's J-M 2016 composite next to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Jan prob has a positive WPO too...though the EPO is starting to go more neutral. I don't think it is inaccurate to say that the Nov-Jan composite is a torch. But Jan itself is probably only marginally warm on that depiction. The really crappy setup is early on...December looks bad. I do think February looks very good. March as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 40/70 shows the entire evolution up in NE , but again this is as similar a mean that I could find for J-M If you could find me what drives a torch here I am willing to listen . You don`t torch in this pattern Jan - March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 40/70 shows the entire evolution up in NE , but again this is as similar a mean that I could find for J-M If you could find me what drives a torch here I am willing to listen . You don`t torch in this pattern . You just don`t . I didn't see anyone say that J-M composite looked bad. Only that N-J did...which is true. Many a past El Nino had bad N-J composites but looked very good J-M...so it's not really a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I didn't see anyone say that J-M composite looked bad. Only that N-J did...which is true. Many a past El Nino had bad N-J composites but looked very good J-M...so it's not really a surprise. I posted that J-M looked good , Forky responded with HMs tweet, who basically says Jan is a torch and Feb is nothing special I disagree with the analysis for both Jan and Feb . You can not walk away from a 500mb mean with a deep Neg S of the Aleutians with a huge POS on the west shores of HB and a S storm track and come away with anything less than , that`s a pretty good pattern and a really good 500mb look . I never liked Dec . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 In December. Look up retrograde in the dictionary....you will see the EURO seasonal's J-M 2016 composite next to it. Thanks for the tip sparky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I didn't see anyone say that J-M composite looked bad. Only that N-J did...which is true. Many a past El Nino had bad N-J composites but looked very good J-M...so it's not really a surprise. I actually missed the N-J part. I'm an idiot. I was thinking that having HM seem that outlandish did not add up. I still disagree with him regarding how he characterized, and it doesn't seem as though you agree, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Thanks for the tip sparky That's what we are trained to do in the marines.....go to bat for those in need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Isn't the super Nino almost a guarantee that we will have a raging southern jet? That should send in steady streams of mild pacific weather along with storminess. I would think the biggest story here will be rain, probably flooding rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Isn't the super Nino almost a guarantee that we will have a raging southern jet? That should send in steady streams of mild pacific weather along with storminess. I would think the biggest story here will be rain, probably flooding rains. NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 NO Instead of just saying no, explain why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Instead of just saying no, explain why not? Please read the last 20 pages in the ENSO thread , we have all been in there and we kinda opined ad nauseam about this. So much stuff , It would be hard to go back to square one. Nothing is impossible/ there are no locks , but it doesn`t look like that`s the case . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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