Allsnow Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Above normal temps below normal snow Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Here are my early thoughts... The PDO will remain positive through the winter. The EPO will teeter between neutral and weakly negative. What will really help us out is that the AO / NAO is predominately negative. NYC receives 53 inches. Please don't trash me- its only a prediction/gut early call. You just can't deny the ability of a strong Nino to pump pacific air through the cuns. But if the -epo remains wow we could see cold air hitting an amped up stj aka 09/10 just a few miles north. His winter could be an epic fail or epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 I think the definition would be "no measurable snowfall" for the sake of this thought experiment. It's going to be a long, long time before climo warms to where no accumulating snow is a realistic possibility at NYC, so we'd literally need a 'perfect storm' of conditions to make it happen... but should it occur in the reasonably near future, it'll be more interesting than any historical snowstorm/sequence IMO. Yea, at that point you are basically shifting NYC's climate 200-300mi south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Philadelphia recorded a few traces in 1972-73...the only winter without measurable snow for them... That's remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 You just can't deny the ability of a strong Nino to pump pacific air through the cuns. But if the -epo remains wow we could see cold air hitting an amped up stj aka 09/10 just a few miles north. His winter could be an epic fail or epic Keep that -EPO/+PDO Pattern with the Central Pacific cold pool = blockbuster winter (my opinion). I don't think the Strong El Nino will be enough to just totally change the whole pattern, it will have some impact though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 That's remarkable. from a 1973 weatherwise edition... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Good evening folks i now reside in Port St Lucie Fla. my snow days are history so i'll experience them through your eyes,hurricane season has a whole new meaning take the good with the bad see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Good evening folks i now reside in Port St Lucie Fla. my snow days are history so i'll experience them through your eyes,hurricane season has a whole new meaning take the good with the bad see ya. good luck down there...I may get a place in Ocala or Spring Hill in the future...I'll become a snow bird... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Farmers almanac is going with a bitter and snowy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Farmers almanac is going with a bitter and snowy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Philadelphia recorded a few traces in 1972-73...the only winter without measurable snow for them... But that's not necessarily because it was very warm that season correct? The storm track didn't go our way. Didn't places further south have more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 But that's not necessarily because it was very warm that season correct? The storm track didn't go our way. Didn't places further south have more snow? yea Richmond and south that year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Good evening folks i now reside in Port St Lucie Fla. my snow days are history so i'll experience them through your eyes,hurricane season has a whole new meaning take the good with the bad see ya.May you enjoy many years of warmth and peace.My zip 112 retirement co-op window faces the Verrazano Bridge. The primary home faces (view from the top floor and roof) the Freedom Tower.(considering extremes and cut offs, I may still be considered a snowbird) I'll spend some time, December through March, tracking the Rain/Snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 precipitation for el nino snowy years... least snowy years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoggyO Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Gut Feeling says that despite a "super" El Nino and potentially the warmest year on record, this Winter in the NYC area will be the same as the last two winters. Warm December, cold January-March with between 50" and 70" of snow. And I feel that the Winters in NYC will be like this for the next few years. No data, no charts, no maps, no research, just a gut feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 I'll have some input by mid October to Early November. If that's okay with forkyfork? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Good evening folks i now reside in Port St Lucie Fla. my snow days are history so i'll experience them through your eyes,hurricane season has a whole new meaning take the good with the bad see ya.Oh no, not mulen! Will really miss your winter posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Good evening folks i now reside in Port St Lucie Fla. my snow days are history so i'll experience them through your eyes,hurricane season has a whole new meaning take the good with the bad see ya. Oh no!! I hope you enjoy it down there, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Good evening folks i now reside in Port St Lucie Fla. my snow days are history so i'll experience them through your eyes,hurricane season has a whole new meaning take the good with the bad see ya. Good luck with your move to Port St. Lucie. I hope you enjoy things down there. Very best wishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Good evening folks i now reside in Port St Lucie Fla. my snow days are history so i'll experience them through your eyes,hurricane season has a whole new meaning take the good with the bad see ya. Same for me. Sucks having to watch these all from the sidelines. The flip side though is no windy, cold and dry days in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Same for me. Sucks having to watch these all from the sidelines. The flip side though is no windy, cold and dry days in the teens. I agree with that. I don't think I could ever be with out the seasons here. As a surfer peopke always say you belong in California. I don't think so. As far as this winter, I think the only certian thing is uncertainty. Nino screams torch but other indices scream cold. My gut says fastened your seatbelt!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 I agree with that. I don't think I could ever be with out the seasons here. As a surfer peopke always say you belong in California. I don't think so. As far as this winter, I think the only certian thing is uncertainty. Nino screams torch but other indices scream cold. My gut says fastened your seatbelt!!! I think temperatures could be slightly above normal, especially with a warm December, but snowfall is a wildcard. Could be some potent Nor'easters hitting the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 el nino analogs with at least 1.0 on the oni scale and rated by highest oni for DJF tri monthly period... season....DJF ONI....snowfall big snow DJF temp Low Temp lowest nao/date 1982-83.......2.1...........27.2".....17.6"......37.9..........12..........-0.690...2/10 1997-98.......2.1.............5.5".......5.0"......39.6..........14..........-2.135...12/17 1957-58.......1.7...........44.7".....11.8"......33.3............3..........-1.651...1/22 1972-73.......1.7.............2.8".......1.8"......35.8............7..........-1.347...12/11 1991-92.......1.6...........12.6".......6.2"......37.2..........11..........-1.516...12/4 2009-10.......1.3...........51.4".....20.9"......33.8..........13..........-2.250...1/3 1965-66.......1.3...........21.4".......6.8"......35.9............8..........-1.739...1/20 1986-87.......1.1...........23.1".......8.1"......34.8............4..........-1.663...2/24 1963-64.......1.0...........44.7".....12.5"......33.3............9..........-2.397...12/13 1994-95.......0.9...........11.8".....10.8"......37.1............6..........-0.327...2/7 2002-03.......0.9...........49.3".....19.8"......31.2............7..........-1.585...12/10 1968-69.......0.9...........30.2".....15.3"......32.9............9..........-1.697...12/6 1987-88.......0.8...........19.1".......5.8"......34.8............5..........-1.792...12/2 2006-07.......0.7...........12.4".......5.5"......36.5............8..........-1.462...1/25 14 seasons average.......25.4".....10.5"......35.3............8............................... if the 2015-16 winter ends up an average el nino winter it won't be that bad...5 of the 14 had over 30" of snow...6 were below 20"...3 in the 20's...7 of 14 had a big storm 10" or more...four had less than 6"...three 6-9"...5 of the 14 were colder than average...seven were above average...two were near average...some years had their coldest period or snowiest period around the date of the lowest nao number...some years with a later low nao was better in the second half...1982-83 didn't have a very neg nao but still managed a big week of snows...1997-98 did have a very low nao but it didn't help much...63-64 has the lowest number on 12/13...That was the beginning of the coldest period ofd that winter...1968-69 had its lowest nao number on 12/6...A few days later NYC had its coldest day of the winter...1994-95 had the highest number of -0.327 on 2/7...a few days after a 11" snowfall and the coldest day of the year...about a month from now I'll narrow the analogs down and come up with a forecast for the winter...I'm not ruling out a cold snowy December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 Farmers almanac is going with a bitter and snowy winter I think they picked the Nationals to win the World Series. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 el nino analogs with at least 1.0 on the oni scale and rated by highest oni for DJF tri monthly period... season....DJF ONI....snowfall big snow DJF temp Low Temp lowest nao/date 1982-83.......2.1...........27.2".....17.6"......37.9..........12..........-0.690...2/10 1997-98.......2.1.............5.5".......5.0"......39.6..........14..........-2.135...12/17 1957-58.......1.7...........44.7".....11.8"......33.3............3..........-1.651...1/22 1972-73.......1.7.............2.8".......1.8"......35.8............7..........-1.347...12/11 1991-92.......1.6...........12.6".......6.2"......37.2..........11..........-1.516...12/4 2009-10.......1.3...........51.4".....20.9"......33.8..........13..........-2.250...1/3 1965-66.......1.3...........21.4".......6.8"......35.9............8..........-1.739...1/20 1986-87.......1.1...........23.1".......8.1"......34.8............4..........-1.663...2/24 1963-64.......1.0...........44.7".....12.5"......33.3............9..........-2.397...12/13 1994-95.......0.9...........11.8".....10.8"......37.1............6..........-0.327...2/7 2002-03.......0.9...........49.3".....19.8"......31.2............7..........-1.585...12/10 1968-69.......0.9...........30.2".....15.3"......32.9............9..........-1.697...12/6 1987-88.......0.8...........19.1".......5.8"......34.8............5..........-1.792...12/2 2006-07.......0.7...........12.4".......5.5"......36.5............8..........-1.462...1/25 14 seasons average.......25.4".....10.5"......35.3............8............................... if the 2015-16 winter ends up an average el nino winter it won't be that bad...5 of the 14 had over 30" of snow...6 were below 20"...3 in the 20's...7 of 14 had a big storm 10" or more...four had less than 6"...three 6-9"...5 of the 14 were colder than average...seven were above average...two were near average...some years had their coldest period or snowiest period around the date of the lowest nao number...some years with a later low nao was better in the second half...1982-83 didn't have a very neg nao but still managed a big week of snows...1997-98 did have a very low nao but it didn't help much...63-64 has the lowest number on 12/13...That was the beginning of the coldest period ofd that winter...1968-69 had its lowest nao number on 12/6...A few days later NYC had its coldest day of the winter...1994-95 had the highest number of -0.327 on 2/7...a few days after a 11" snowfall and the coldest day of the year...about a month from now I'll narrow the analogs down and come up with a forecast for the winter...I'm not ruling out a cold snowy December... All things considered I'd rather not head into fall/winter with an El Nino of this strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 12, 2015 Author Share Posted September 12, 2015 I think they picked the Nationals to win the World Series. Lol. Want real weather info? Go to the enso thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 Lol. Want real weather info? Go to the enso thread I've been following that thread. Some good reading! Hey I hope the winter turns out just like the Farmers Almanac is predicting but I think Trump has a better chance of being elected president of Mexico than FA being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 12, 2015 Author Share Posted September 12, 2015 I've been following that thread. Some good reading! Hey I hope the winter turns out just like the Farmers Almanac is predicting but I think Trump has a better chance of being elected president of Mexico than FA being right. Lol poor Mexico if that's the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 I've been following that thread. Some good reading! Hey I hope the winter turns out just like the Farmers Almanac is predicting but I think Trump has a better chance of being elected president of Mexico than FA being right. They were right the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 They were right the last couple of years. As I wrote, I hope they are correct with their winter 15 - 16 prediction. I just do not have a lot of confidence in their forecasting methods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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