Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,605
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Winter of 2015-16 Prediction Discussion


dmillz25

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 187
  • Created
  • Last Reply

To me it's alll about can we hang on to the -epo for a third winter. If so more cold an snow. If not with a moderate to possibly strong Nino it will probably be mild and wet. (Good interior snows)

So if anyone says they know for sure without knowing those factors is lying.

I think the one thing that is for sure is its a pitiful hurricane season

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It might actually be another prolific winter if the PDO setup holds and we get another -EPO regime. The El Niño will enhance storminess and I doubt the NAO and AO will be as positive as the past winter.

Even though it's pure fantasy, I'd say there's a 60% chance of another 40"+ winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 months later...

This is my take of it. My prediction is a couple cutters, several swfes, a -NAO that will last long enough for a KU to happen. A couple coastal huggers and about 4 miller As and Bs. Totals for NYC 55-65 inches more north and east.

A few changes. Going with 35-45+ inches now. Factors are of course el niño and Atlantic and Pacific blocking

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A few changes. Going with 35-45+ inches now. Factors are of course el niño and Atlantic and Pacific blocking

Well given its a complete crapshoot right now I'll say 15-20" with a lot of rainy nor'easters. If we see a more west based Nino or a stronger possibility of a -EPO then those amounts could be far greater.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This will be the first snowless winter in NYC history.

:snowing:

You have to wonder if that's possible given the 2.8" in 72-73 and all of 97-98's snow came in late March. It may be a possibility in a warmer climate as I believe DCA only had 0.1" in 72-73. Definitely not a possibility in the northern suburbs where I live but for Central Park and other extreme coastal areas.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

You have to wonder if that's possible given the 2.8" in 72-73 and all of 97-98's snow came in late March. It may be a possibility in a warmer climate as I believe DCA only had 0.1" in 72-73. Definitely not a possibility in the northern suburbs where I live but for Central Park and other extreme coastal areas.

I'd say it is possible.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

You have to wonder if that's possible given the 2.8" in 72-73 and all of 97-98's snow came in late March. It may be a possibility in a warmer climate as I believe DCA only had 0.1" in 72-73. Definitely not a possibility in the northern suburbs where I live but for Central Park and other extreme coastal areas.

I don't think even NYC will ever see a snowless winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You have to wonder if that's possible given the 2.8" in 72-73 and all of 97-98's snow came in late March. It may be a possibility in a warmer climate as I believe DCA only had 0.1" in 72-73. Definitely not a possibility in the northern suburbs where I live but for Central Park and other extreme coastal areas.

 

I mean, it would have to be like a one in 500 year event, a la Sandy or something.  It's hard to imagine no snow in NYC for an entire winter, given its geographic location.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lol, almost impossible. I'm pretty sure I will see at least 1 snowflake each year. :santa:

 

I think the definition would be "no measurable snowfall" for the sake of this thought experiment.

 

It's going to be a long, long time before climo warms to where no accumulating snow is a realistic possibility at NYC, so we'd literally need a 'perfect storm' of conditions to make it happen... but should it occur in the reasonably near future, it'll be more interesting than any historical snowstorm/sequence IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 Here are my early thoughts... The PDO will remain positive through the winter. The EPO will teeter between neutral and weakly negative. What will really help us out is that the AO / NAO is predominately negative. NYC receives 53 inches. Please don't trash me- its only a prediction/gut early call. :mapsnow:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...