bluewave Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 It's very rare to see such steep mid-level lapse coupled with this deep a mixed layer on forecasts soundings for our area especially during convection. This type of sounding would support hail and strong wind potential right to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 I've been posting about it... the gfs has been consistently bullish. wish I could see euro soundings. if the gfs is right 50 kt gusts are possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Rgem is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Almost has a derecho look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 We'll see I guess, I'm never too confident that these setups will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Almost has a derecho look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Any idea why things are mixing so well? If that's the case any decent storm that does form should have a shot at strong wind gusts. I could see a nice line segment charge at the city. Points east I doubt it ammounts to much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Doesn't shear still play a significant role versus in the summer where a lot of our activity solely relies on instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Severe thunderstorm watches probably will be posted sometime tomorrow afternoon with this. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a few tornado warnings as well due to brief spin ups with some t-storms bowing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 What is the timing for these storms today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 What is the timing for these storms today? 1pm to 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 22, 2015 Author Share Posted April 22, 2015 What is the timing for these storms today? The main squall line should reach NYC by 3-4pm per the latest HRRR. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 The main squall line should reach NYC by 3-4pm per the latest HRRR. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Oh perfect when im en route to my house. Just perfect. I was hoping it would wait till i get home lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Round 1 Round 2 Potential Round 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Clouds slow to arrive so already up to 67 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Clouds slow to arrive so already up to 67 degrees here. 65 at the park so its good for instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 The only element missing today is strong SBCAPE. Shear, mid-level and low-level lapse rates are all good. Anything that is able to get going will be capable of strong winds and hail. There is some decent MUCAPE in NE PA so hopefully that will be enough to get things going. The latest HRRR is still just a general area of heavier showers with possible embedded thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Round 2 on the HRRR Round 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Someone could pick up close to a quick inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 NWS SPC says a Severe Tstorm Watch is unlikely today. Some strong winds, hail possible —but not widespread. http://t.co/WWMjZ3jeaK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 That's composite reflectivety and DPs are in the 30s. No one is picking up a quick inch. Someone could pick up close to a quick inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 You would think we'd have more instability given temps are several degrees above the forecast, currently 73F, but yes it's also very dry outside with low dews and humidity. It looks like a red flag type of day as well with the winds picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Winds ripping on shore here on the island and after warming up nicely earlier temps are crashing!!!! Anythin heading this way will poof disappear unless it's really elevated. But with the good mixing today I wouldn't expect more then showers. City, west still has a shot but I agree the low dews will prevent any major convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 22, 2015 Author Share Posted April 22, 2015 Allentown just gusted to 55 mph as the squall line moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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