chase_stormz Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 30% sig-hatched added for KY and TN in the D2, mentions of strong tornadoes and a possible upgrade in risk in future outlooks (basically what I expected considering the 00z guidance). A bit surprised that it didn't get extended further south into AL/MS, although I suppose storm coverage further south is still a question. D1 has two 10% hatched tornado areas for KS and E TX/Arklatex. That outlook for day 2 sounded mighty fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Quite a bit of convection ongoing across Texas this morning. Several disorganized clusters of rain and storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Quite a bit of convection ongoing across Texas this morning. Several disorganized clusters of rain and storms.Has me concerned and is always our worst enemy next to the cap we have in North Texas everytime these events come through. FWD doesn't seem concerned and it may actually work in our favor this time. The complex south of us seems to slowly be weakening, and per meso analysis on SPC site moisture flow doesn't look distrupted. Certainly not something I wanted to see but most models had this stuff on there and still ended up showing some nice components and activity coming together.It is muggy here in DFW that's for sure, very Florida like outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Is it me or did they drop the 10% hatched for Kansas well after the Day 1 13Z Convective Outlook came out? I could have swore the 10% remained when I checked it at 1320 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Is it me or did they drop the 10% hatched for Kansas well after the Day 1 13Z Convective Outlook came out? I could have swore the 10% remained when i checked it at 1320 or so. No they dropped it for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 No they dropped it for now Interesting, I wasn't aware that they ever updated CO's before the subsequent ones came out. Thanks for letting me know I'm not crazy, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Seems moisture return may be an issue for Kansas with all of the storms going on in Texas blocking it at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 After handling the overnight convection fairly well, the HRRR is actually returning impressive CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg up and down I-35 in Texas. Based on recent performance, I think I'll lean on it a bit more as I confirm what my target area will be and head out over the next hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 After handling the overnight convection fairly well, the HRRR is actually returning impressive CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg up and down I-35 in Texas. Based on recent performance, I think I'll lean on it a bit more as I confirm what my target area will be and head out over the next hour or so. Good luck, man. Be safe! Going back up to KS, the 12Z HRRR has a nice pearl popping up over central KS at 22Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Well, I've still got my eyes on central Kansas, even though the 10% hatched tornado was dropped. I can't say that I disagree with that. We're not looking at strong instability or high dews like further south, but the latest HRRR and 4km NAM runs continue to show initiation along a narrow ribbon of instability near the triple point by mid-afternoon in central Kansas. While I think there's a good probability of at least a couple of tornadoes here, the residual cloud-cover and otherwise less-than-stellar environment may mitigate the risk for strong tornado(es). We'll see how satellite and observations trends look over the next few hours. The HRRR and NAM are actually initializing and progging both temperatures and dew-points fairly well, so it's not like we're getting grossly exaggerated instability forecasts. Heading to Wichita for lunch and will probably head a bit NW of there, assuming there isn't much change in evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 I'm planning on heading out to Hamilton, TX within the hour. With the sun coming out across north central Texas I can see instability going up quite a bit and shear is great. Looks like the best setup so far this year for north central texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Areas of clearing appearing in Fort Worth, TX at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 It's clearing here in Denton as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Areas of clearing appearing in Fort Worth, TX at the moment. It was weird to see it clearing even while it was raining hard here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Eating lunch in Hillsboro right now. It was pretty clear driving up here, but things clouded back up once I got here. Probably going to head further NW. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Still mostly cloudy here in ft worth, however I can see it breaking up a bit... Interesting to see what happens this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Here in Tyler I have noticed the cloud cover thinning at times. We have hardly had any rain here, maybe .01", so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF TX FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY INTOCENTRAL AND N TXCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 241612Z - 241815ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 The metroplex is playing with fire big-time right now sitting on that boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 MD for central Texas has expired, safe bet that a watch is issued within the next few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 The metroplex is playing with fire big-time right now sitting on that boundary. Tornado tony! Haven't seen you in here for awhile. I'd love to hear your thoughts on tomorrow's setup. You always have great input! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 The metroplex is playing with fire big-time right now sitting on that boundary. Just to the S of I20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Just to the S of I20? Yeah that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 The metroplex is playing with fire big-time right now sitting on that boundary. So far the clouds seem to be holding, but with how muggy it is we may not need the sun for something to develop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Yeah it's not clearing and in fact appears to be getting cloudier in the immediate area, but areas to the west aren't terrible and may have just enough. Other things are promising for severe, so I wonder if cloudiness today will be enough to stop much of it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Decent probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Here we go... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 336 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN CALLAHAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN COLEMAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... NORTHEASTERN RUNNELS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 400 PM CDT * AT 334 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CREWS...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... NOVICE AROUND 350 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Uh oh... ... A Tornado Warning remains in effect for southwestern Callahan...northwestern Coleman... southeastern Taylor and northeastern Runnelscounties until 400 PM CDT...At 342 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a largeand extremely dangerous tornado was located 5 miles west of Novice...and moving east at 45 mph.This is a particularly dangerous situation.Hazard... damaging tornado.Source... radar indicated rotation.Impact... you are in a life threatening situation. Flying debris will be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes... businesses and vehicles is likely and complete destruction possible.The tornado will be near... Novice around 350 PM CDT. Silver Valley and Oplin around 355 PM CDT.Other locations in the warning include Lake Coleman.Precautionary/preparedness actions...To repeat... a large... extremely dangerous and potentially deadlytornado is developing. To protect your life... take cover now. Move toan interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoidwindows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or outdoors... move to theclosest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 ^That's a bit odd. Velocities don't seem that strong to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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