Smokey_mountain_vols Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 I'd say Tulsa is gonna get a good raking on Friday. The highest tornado potential may be up in SE KS depending on low level winds - but severe is a good bet IMHO.So not completely boned but we'll probably get the usual hail and wind gust from hell? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokey_mountain_vols Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 I'd say Tulsa is gonna get a good raking on Friday. The highest tornado potential may be up in SE KS depending on low level winds - but severe is a good bet IMHO. Pretty spot on prediction man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 The HRRR has been zeroing in on the area just southeast of AMA for supercell initiation (one particularly discrete cell) later this afternoon. Makes sense near the dryline/front/low intersection. Satellite shows mostly clear skies and the area is progged to lie within 1500 J/KG CAPE and 50+ knots of bulk shear. Another area to watch will be near the Red River with outflow from convection this morning. I'd favor the Texas panhandle though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokey_mountain_vols Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 The HRRR has been zeroing in on the area just southeast of AMA for supercell initiation (one particularly discrete cell) later this afternoon. Makes sense near the dryline/front/low intersection. Satellite shows mostly clear skies and the area is progged to lie within 1500 J/KG CAPE and 50+ knots of bulk shear. Another area to watch will be near the Red River with outflow from convection this morning. I'd favor the Texas panhandle though. I was thinking East of Dallas is where the worst of its gonna be today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 I was planning to head to Stephenville this afternoon, but honestly it looks like everything is going to be much better out near Childress and that's simply too far for me to make it. I may just sit this out unless anything pops around Waco/Temple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Some of the soundings for SE KS (and even through Tulsa and eastern OK) for Friday on this morning's NAM are a bit ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 HRRR and Fire Wx NAM in agreement with a discrete supercell with significant updraft helicity moving in the direction of CDS late this afternoon. Take it FWIW, but multiple high res models have consistently been targeting the area from AMA-CDS for initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokey_mountain_vols Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Some of the soundings for SE KS (and even through Tulsa and eastern OK) for Friday on this morning's NAM are a bit ridiculous. kcnu.png Put it in terms I can understand.. am I gonna die loco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokey_mountain_vols Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Some of the soundings for SE KS (and even through Tulsa and eastern OK) for Friday on this morning's NAM are a bit ridiculous. kcnu.png Just lay it on me in the toughest possible way. Be like "Well SMV you're probably not gonna make it to Saturday." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jameswx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Just lay it on me in the toughest possible way. Be like "Well SMV you're probably not gonna make it to Saturday." I think it's way to early to pinpoint any one location. If the NAM run verifies verbatim it would be pretty interesting for SE KS and E OK. However, there are still question marks regarding evolution of the system and perhaps morning convection that would complicate the forecast (although the NAM has backed off morning convection a little since yesterday). There are a lot of talented people on this board, so just keep checking back and don't sweat it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokey_mountain_vols Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 I think it's way to early to pinpoint any one location. If the NAM run verifies verbatim it would be pretty interesting for SE KS and E OK. However, there are still question marks regarding evolution of the system and perhaps morning convection that would complicate the forecast (although the NAM has backed off morning convection a little since yesterday). There are a lot of talented people on this board, so just keep checking back and don't sweat it!Haha alright, thanks man! I just have a soccer game to play in and I really don't want it to be cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 For Friday, the GFS is quite a bit warmer aloft than the NAM over E OK and SE KS, and with not awesome lapse rates too, which is leading to CAPE outputs quite a bit lower than I would expect them with ML dewpoints well into the 60s in most places. I wonder if the GFS is having issues with the EML. EDIT: Nevermind, just realized the GFS had upstream morning convection which was messing with stuff aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Here we go, first storms are going up along the dryline in Central Texas. Most are pretty disorganized, but the storm west of Brownwood may need to be watched, as radar velocities are indicating some rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 22, 2015 Author Share Posted April 22, 2015 Here we go, first storms are going up along the dryline in Central Texas. Most are pretty disorganized, but the storm west of Brownwood may need to be watched, as radar velocities are indicating some rotation. Rotation increasing on the latest scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Another cell west of Amarillo also showing some rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Another cell west of Amarillo also showing some rotation. I think that cell is the one most of the mesoscale guidance has been trying to latch onto. The HRRR really gets it going in the next hour or so (although the HRRR has been convecting a little early today, so the strengthening may be premature too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 The environment now isn't all that impressive. Dews in the lower 50s, marginal helicities. Curious to see if it eventually organizes better or (maybe less likely?) a few more discretes can fire further southeast from Amarillo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 I was planning to head to Stephenville this afternoon, but honestly it looks like everything is going to be much better out near Childress and that's simply too far for me to make it. I may just sit this out unless anything pops around Waco/Temple. Are you near Temple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 David Drummed on a some serious rotation just S/SW of Amarillo... Lots of rotation...bit of a dust-up...mini tornado on the ground just 2-3 minutes ago. 12,000 people viewing. https://tvnweather.com/live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 520 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL DEAF SMITH COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS... WEST CENTRAL RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 518 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HEREFORD...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HEREFORD... DAWN... UMBARGER... BUFFALO LAKE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 That's a nice supercell near Hereford, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 The environment now isn't all that impressive. Dews in the lower 50s, marginal helicities. Curious to see if it eventually organizes better or (maybe less likely?) a few more discretes can fire further southeast from Amarillo. It's doing pretty good considering the environment it's in. Rotation is still looking like its strengthening. On a side note, the dust this cell is kicking up is visible on the CC. Gonna make identifying a tornado difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 That cell is tracking generally towards Happy. That town has some somewhat recent history with tornadoes from back in 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 That tornado has a nice rotation look on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Rotation tightening up at Kaffir TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Any reports out of Streetwater? I'm worried a tornado went through the center of the town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Any reports out of Streetwater? I'm worried a tornado went through the center of the town. unlikely IMHO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Tornado near Knox City TX ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FORSOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY... AT 1001 PM CDT...A STORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOESWAS LOCATED NEAR KNOX CITY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. ANOTHERPOTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OFBENJAMIN...AND WAS ALSO MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinbente Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Anyone have any new thoughts on Friday's setup? I see the 0z NAM does not get more than 1750 CAPE in east OK, also not convecting. I personally just don't believe this solution so much, given the amount of dynamics associated with this storm. It almost wants to point to Wichita, KS being the spot, with higher CAPE values located there and seems to initiate IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Are you near Temple? College Station. I ended up going out to that Gainsville cell this evening and followed it back to 35. The shelf cloud on the RFD was pretty massive for awhile. Nothing spectacular, but an enjoyable chase none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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