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Severe Potential: April 22-25, 2015


andyhb

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The HRRR has been zeroing in on the area just southeast of AMA for supercell initiation (one particularly discrete cell) later this afternoon. Makes sense near the dryline/front/low intersection. Satellite shows mostly clear skies and the area is progged to lie within 1500 J/KG CAPE and 50+ knots of bulk shear.

Another area to watch will be near the Red River with outflow from convection this morning. I'd favor the Texas panhandle though.

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The HRRR has been zeroing in on the area just southeast of AMA for supercell initiation (one particularly discrete cell) later this afternoon. Makes sense near the dryline/front/low intersection. Satellite shows mostly clear skies and the area is progged to lie within 1500 J/KG CAPE and 50+ knots of bulk shear.

Another area to watch will be near the Red River with outflow from convection this morning. I'd favor the Texas panhandle though.

I was thinking East of Dallas is where the worst of its gonna be today.
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HRRR and Fire Wx NAM in agreement with a discrete supercell with significant updraft helicity moving in the direction of CDS late this afternoon. Take it FWIW, but multiple high res models have consistently been targeting the area from AMA-CDS for initiation.

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Just lay it on me in the toughest possible way. Be like "Well SMV you're probably not gonna make it to Saturday."

 

I think it's way to early to pinpoint any one location.  If the NAM run verifies verbatim it would be pretty interesting for SE KS and E OK.  However, there are still question marks regarding evolution of the system and perhaps morning convection that would complicate the forecast (although the NAM has backed off morning convection a little since yesterday).  There are a lot of talented people on this board, so just keep checking back and don't sweat it!

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I think it's way to early to pinpoint any one location. If the NAM run verifies verbatim it would be pretty interesting for SE KS and E OK. However, there are still question marks regarding evolution of the system and perhaps morning convection that would complicate the forecast (although the NAM has backed off morning convection a little since yesterday). There are a lot of talented people on this board, so just keep checking back and don't sweat it!

Haha alright, thanks man! I just have a soccer game to play in and I really don't want it to be cancelled.
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For Friday, the GFS is quite a bit warmer aloft than the NAM over E OK and SE KS, and with not awesome lapse rates too, which is leading to CAPE outputs quite a bit lower than I would expect them with ML dewpoints well into the 60s in most places. I wonder if the GFS is having issues with the EML.

 

EDIT: Nevermind, just realized the GFS had upstream morning convection which was messing with stuff aloft.

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Here we go, first storms are going up along the dryline in Central Texas. Most are pretty disorganized, but the storm west of Brownwood may need to be watched, as radar velocities are indicating some rotation.

 

Rotation increasing on the latest scans.

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The environment now isn't all that impressive. Dews in the lower 50s, marginal helicities. Curious to see if it eventually organizes better or (maybe less likely?) a few more discretes can fire further southeast from Amarillo.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
520 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EAST CENTRAL DEAF SMITH COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...  
  WEST CENTRAL RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT  
 
* AT 518 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HEREFORD...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD.  
 
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
           TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
           LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  HEREFORD...           DAWN...               UMBARGER...  
  BUFFALO LAKE...

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The environment now isn't all that impressive. Dews in the lower 50s, marginal helicities. Curious to see if it eventually organizes better or (maybe less likely?) a few more discretes can fire further southeast from Amarillo.

It's doing pretty good considering the environment it's in. Rotation is still looking like its strengthening.

On a side note, the dust this cell is kicking up is visible on the CC. Gonna make identifying a tornado difficult.

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Tornado near Knox City TX

 

2015_04_23_0253z_KFDR_tornadoknoxcity1.j

 

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY...
    
AT 1001 PM CDT...A STORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
WAS LOCATED NEAR KNOX CITY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OF
BENJAMIN...AND WAS ALSO MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

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Anyone have any new thoughts on Friday's setup? I see the 0z NAM does not get more than 1750 CAPE in east OK, also not convecting. I personally just don't believe this solution so much, given the amount of dynamics associated with this storm. It almost wants to point to Wichita, KS being the spot, with higher CAPE values located there and seems to initiate IIRC. 

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