Yellow Evan Posted August 8, 2015 Author Share Posted August 8, 2015 is this the first system since iselle that may potentially make it to the big Island of Hawai'i? or is my memory wrong? Ana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 8, 2015 Author Share Posted August 8, 2015 Anyhow, Hurricane Hilda is on the verge of becoming a MH. Idk why the NHC went 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Anyhow, Hurricane Hilda is on the verge of becoming a MH. Idk why the NHC went 90. There's no way this isn't a major hurricane already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Hilda might not be around for much longer. It's probably not even a hurricane anymore. Convection is becoming displaced on the east side of the circulation now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Models fairly unanimous in developing a tropical cyclone in the Central Pacific in the next five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Model guidance wants to turn Three-C into a hurricane as it approaches the western Hawaiian islands early next week. Still a lot of time for things to change, but that would not be a very good track (right quadrant and surge) for Honolulu if the general consensus holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Looking at tropical depression four-c forecasted path, the CPHC and JTWC will be alternating who writes the advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Kilo is definitely a challenging forecast for CPHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 The SHIPS probability for Rapid Intensification for Jimena are the highest I have seen that I can remember for any system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 28, 2015 Share Posted August 28, 2015 Jimena looks amazing right now, could strive for category five status before entering a less than ideal oceanic environment and Ignacio is intensifying once again, nice comma shape structure with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Triplets - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Will this be a record ACE year for the Central Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Will this be a record ACE year for the Central Pacific? 2nd most ACE for August https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/638393659671470080/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 0Z Euro looks like it takes a tropical storm into San Diego Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Some models, including the ECMWF for the last couple of days are taking a tropical cyclone, I believe the remnants of Niala, and slingshot it back to Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 CPHC now giving 30% probabilities for both disturbances south of Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Olaf may make a run at cat 5 and is in the central Pacific now, which is having it's biggest season I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Olaf may make a run at cat 5 and is in the central Pacific now, which is having it's biggest season I can remember. rbtop0.gif Spectacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Patricia will likely undergo RI in the next 24 hours, structure has been improving markedly in just a few hours today. A major hurricane landfall is very much in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Patricia appears it has a good chance of being one of few major hurricane landfalls in the C/EPAC in the last 60 years. There only have been 12 since 1957. Of equal concern is the excessive rains forecast in TX in the next 4 days with over 10" forecast, centered close to the DFW area. Tropical system moisture streaming NE like this during October can be rather impressive in the Southern Plains. A similar situation to the one upcoming occurred in October 1983 with EPAC Hurricane Tico. One of the biggest rainfalls on record in Oklahoma occurred with this event. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/tico1983filledrainblk.gif Antecedent conditions are quite dry in much of eastern and northern Texas, so despite the forecast amounts, this will allay the net impact somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Patricia starting to look pretty hawt this morning with that small eye trying to poke out - looks like it could be a pinhole. Now we just need the eye to warm and clear out some (although at 4km resolution on the IR, it might be hard to see much eye warming if it is a true pinhole!) Environment still looks great, I'm thinking this should make cat 4 easy. NOAA P-3 on its way, NASA WB-57 should be taking off within the hour. P.S. Josh already in Jalisco, MX for the intercept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Latest nhc discussion says ships gives a 95% of a 40kt 24hr wind increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 A slight jump to cat 4 in the last advisory...expected to landfall as a cat 4 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Looks like Olaf is going to make it back into the eastern Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 GFS and Euro show another microcane hitting Mexico next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 GFS and Euro show another microcane hitting Mexico next week. Still there, 5 days away - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 NHC discussions are now in lowercase -- TROPICAL STORM SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015200 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2015Visible satellite imagery suggests that Sandra is strengtheningquickly. Deep convection has recently blossomed in a ring around arelatively clear region near the center, with a warm spot alsonoted in infrared imagery. Dvorak intensity estimates have risen toT3.0/45 kt from SAB, T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and T4.0/65 ktfrom the UW-CIMSS ADT. Therefore, the initial intensity is raisedto 55 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Is this the end of the teletype era or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Sandra could become the latest major hurricane on record in either the central/eastern Pacific or Atlantic. The latest as of now was an unnamed hurricane in 1934 that remained a Category 3 storm until 00z 11/24. Update: BULLETINHURRICANE SANDRA ADVISORY NUMBER 9NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015200 PM MST WED NOV 25 2015...SANDRA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...13.0N 109.9WABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICOABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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