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E North Pacific Tropical Action 2015


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Model guidance wants to turn Three-C into a hurricane as it approaches the western Hawaiian islands early next week. Still a lot of time for things to change, but that would not be a very good track (right quadrant and surge) for Honolulu if the general consensus holds.

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Patricia appears it has a good chance of being one of few major hurricane landfalls in the C/EPAC in the
last 60 years.  There only have been 12 since 1957.
 
Of equal concern is the excessive rains forecast in TX in the next 4 days with over 10" forecast, centered
close to the DFW area.  Tropical system moisture streaming NE like this during October can be rather
impressive in the Southern Plains.  A similar situation to the one upcoming occurred in October 1983
with EPAC Hurricane Tico.  One of the biggest rainfalls on record in Oklahoma occurred with this event.
 
 
Antecedent conditions are quite dry in much of eastern and northern Texas, so despite the forecast
amounts, this will allay the net impact somewhat.

post-1766-0-03857500-1445509040_thumb.jp

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Patricia starting to look pretty hawt this morning with that small eye trying to poke out - looks like it could be a pinhole.  Now we just need the eye to warm and clear out some (although at 4km resolution on the IR, it might be hard to see much eye warming if it is a true pinhole!)  Environment still looks great, I'm thinking this should make cat 4 easy.

 

NOAA P-3 on its way, NASA WB-57 should be taking off within the hour. 

 

P.S. Josh already in Jalisco, MX for the intercept  :) 

 

post-378-0-54697500-1445526861_thumb.gif

 

 

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NHC discussions are now in lowercase

--

TROPICAL STORM SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015200 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2015Visible satellite imagery suggests that Sandra is strengtheningquickly.  Deep convection has recently blossomed in a ring around arelatively clear region near the center, with a warm spot alsonoted in infrared imagery.  Dvorak intensity estimates have risen toT3.0/45 kt from SAB, T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and T4.0/65 ktfrom the UW-CIMSS ADT.  Therefore, the initial intensity is raisedto 55 kt.
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Sandra could become the latest major hurricane on record in either the central/eastern Pacific or Atlantic. The latest as of now was an unnamed hurricane in 1934 that remained a Category 3 storm until 00z 11/24.

 

Update:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDRA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015
200 PM MST WED NOV 25 2015

...SANDRA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 109.9W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

 

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