IsentropicLift Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 A closed low over the mid-west will eject energy into a negatively tilted trough early next week. A surface low pressure system is then forecast to develop near the mid-atlantic coast on Monday and advance Northward bringing very heavy rain in a short period of time. Upton's first guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Hopefully we see some nice thunderstorm action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Winds still expected to gust up to 35 mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 17, 2015 Author Share Posted April 17, 2015 On 4/17/2015 at 8:25 PM, weathermedic said: Winds still expected to gust up to 35 mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 17, 2015 Author Share Posted April 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Wow this upcoming event should be great for my man yanks! I'm happy for you bro, enjoy it you heavy rain fiend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 17, 2015 Author Share Posted April 17, 2015 Long range NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 17, 2015 Author Share Posted April 17, 2015 Updated forecasted totals from WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 If a low tries to form near the coast with this, there could be a nice low level jet and 35-45mph E/SE winds for a while with the heavy rain, especially on the coast. Severe can't be ruled out as well especially where the warm front can push past in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 6 z nam/gfs show around 3/4 to and inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 00z Euro and GGEM were both well over an inch areawide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 the good news is that it's on a monday and not the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 On 4/18/2015 at 10:58 AM, Animal said: 6 z nam/gfs show around 3/4 to and inch of rain. Followed up by the wettest run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 12z GFS 1.25"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 On 4/18/2015 at 4:20 PM, bluewave said: Looks like a two parter with morning into early afternoon rain with the warm front followed by evening convection with the cold front. sometimes we can get big morning and evening T storms in the Summer when that happens...It is a little early to look for something like that to happen...big April rain storms are more frequent now than before 1970... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 This is the case of a rapidly intensifying surface low developing on the front. Not a typical warm front passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 12z GGEM and Euro both holding strong with widesoread 1.5"+ totals and Lollies to 2.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Imagine this setup in winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 On 4/18/2015 at 8:26 PM, White Gorilla said: Imagine this setup in winter! This would be a big rainstorm in the winter. Look where the low's tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 On 4/18/2015 at 8:59 PM, jm1220 said: This would be a big rainstorm in the winter. Look where the low's tracking.I could see some front end snow to ice if it were February but that's it for frozen. But yeah this is a big rainstorm pretty much any other time of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Took a look at the 18z models. All indications this is a run of the mill rain event. Final call for rain 3/4 to an inch. If you enjoy rain, maybe you max out with an inch and a 1/4. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 On 4/18/2015 at 11:34 PM, Animal said: Took a look at the 18z models. All indications this is a run of the mill rain event. Final call for rain 3/4 to an inch. If you enjoy rain, maybe you max out with an inch and a 1/4. Best. Go against the Euro/GGEM combo which has been locked in for days at your own perril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 On 4/19/2015 at 12:38 AM, IsentropicLift said: Go against the Euro/GGEM combo which has been locked in for days at your own perril. Euro is garbage the past 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 On 4/19/2015 at 2:02 AM, Animal said: Euro is garbage the past 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 On 4/19/2015 at 2:07 AM, IsentropicLift said: What's so funny. Truth be told, big failures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 On 4/19/2015 at 2:08 AM, Animal said: What's so funny. Truth be told, big failures The verification scores speak for themselves. And the 00z NAM is coming in wetter again, going to be in the foreign model camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 18z RGEM is 50mm+ for NNJ. All models are at least 1.5"+. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 nam bufkit is bullish on elevated cape tomorrow night. valid for ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Wind gusting to 40 mph at KJFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Pouring rain here. Winds gusting to 30mph. I hope we get some good thunderstorm action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.