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Unusual circumstances in progged teleconnections "might" also portent a relatively rare late season snow potential...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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IIRC at 3-4 days out the mid April 2007 storm looked kinda like 12/92 :lol: or at least I remember people discussing it 

 

 

Yeah it did...more like 5 days out IIRC...but there were a couple runs that were somewhat similar.

 

GGEM is also a very close call on 4/28...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yes yes... some 12z runs still hinting at that date... 

 

It's simply a matter if things break positive or negative... depending on one's point of view.  

 

If by positive, people long to experience one last gasp of winter before the final curtain falls on the show, I just cannot deny the last 24 hours of "trend," which unfortunately for your cause is somewhat against.  Sure it can come back -

 

People tend to take every post as absolute -- not sure why that is... It just doesn't look "AS" interesting in that regard as when the thread went up, is all I was saying.   I think people need to consider the qualification words, like "might" and "could be" more fairly.

 

The snap shot teleconnectors still have a strong -NAO nadior/spike/interval... The fact that it has lessened in length of total time, is true however.  So has the PNA.  I factually demonstrated that; compare recent post with thread start?

 

Just some things to consider...

By the way...how about that GFS 588 dm height node starting to show up in the extended.   I noticed also some tendency to burgeon heights too - though not to this extreme.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Do admit the Euro arriving interesting looking for the 28th... But the stuff about the medium warming appears to be f this up right on schedule.

 

You know...if nothing else, it really underscores how remarkable some of those snow anomalies of the past must have been, as we extract wisdom teeth here to [maybe] no avail ...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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This all makes April go faster....even if it's illusory...which it probably is.

 

Hehhh, not sure that's fair really.. 

 

We've been pretty clear all along where the probabilities were sloped with this chill'ish pattern.   People can choose to filter their consumption of the information, and of course there is no stopping those biases.  But no one bringing this stuff to the table led anyone astray in black and white.  

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Randy4Confluence

Randy4Confluence

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Hehhh, not sure that's fair really..

We've been pretty clear all along where the probabilities were sloped with this chill'ish pattern. People can choose to filter their consumption of the information, and of course there is no stopping those biases. But no one bringing this stuff to the table led anyone astray in black and white.

I wasn't referring to yours or any other met's analysis certainly,but the overall chance of it happening. The analysis is always top notch.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Not snow but gfs and euro agree on a big noreaster.

 

Not for not ... it fits...  

 

Thing is, this period of storminess has been flagged since before this thread even went up... I know that folks don't really interest much in just nor'easter events, when sans snow, but it is what it is..

 

Could still trend cooler as it gets near ...

 

Assuming it holds in the models ... 

 

But as discussed the teleconnectors offer support for this sort of scenario ... 

 

Could also be dramatic for other reasons if some of those intensities are achieved, given to time of year, duration and spring tidal concerns... 

 

Personally I think a good ole stem-wound nor'easter is interesting no matter when it happens.  The GGEM also offers a big wound up durational event ...it looks a tick or two cooler, and thus perhaps snows on the Berks and Monadnocks just estimating off the synoptic charts..   Lot of QPF in that run though...wow... Would be a blue history in the elevations, and a flooder in the valleys... 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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These models keep flipping all over the place as to whether the 27th - 2nd five days will avail of circumstance.  

 

I suspect the sun and having to integrate daily doses of huge insolation into the medium lower troposphere is playing havoc with things... In mid winter, the type of leading teleconnector spread really would have been closer to a slam dunk with this... 

 

The 00z GGEM went from a ludicrous blue bomb to temps nearing 80 F, ...now, back to one snow chance and a damaging nor'easter.   The GFS and Euro ...while not as wild, are not very useful either.  

 

I guess this means it's spring -

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