Unusual circumstances in progged teleconnections "might" also portent a relatively rare late season snow potential...

[Typhoon Tip]

The front office is starting to see the significance of this interesting period of cooler departures...

 

"...A WET PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS DAY 3 ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. AS THE CUTOFF 500MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO STALL AND SHEAR OUT ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO---PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. APPRECIABLE PERIODS OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE PRODUCED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST---GIVEN THE VERY GOOD ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT FOR THIS PATTERN'S EVOLUTION..."

 

And ...this is just the entry time(s) into the ~ 5 day period of vulnerability for a late season snow.  

 

Some quick points that need to be made for the general consumer, and/or drilled through the 10 miles of lead the separates objective analysis from the inner mind-boggling absurdity that frameworks the minds of certain contributing posters...

 

1) there was nothing deterministic about this write-up, nor did any of the Mets offering sentiment since try to hone any such system.  The points were methodology/philosophy of approach, only, and none of that has changed since yesterday.  It is the mind of a child that proverbially stomps around ... trolling because they are frustrated and upset that the deterministic model solutions don't actually show a system (square-mouthed with rage toddler in a grocery line that had that candy bar taken away and put back up on the shelf..). Their minds are just not mature enough to "get it" when talking about abstract concepts; and thus, far be it out of their mental reach to consider that systems can emerge in time when larger scaled circumstances favor said emergence...  

 

2) A quick reminder;  it was said pretty clearly at several times by myself and others, that this could very well just be an interval of cold inclement spring 40 to 45 F misery.  To that, the signal is very loud, and has been all along the most probability favored result. It was also suggested clearly that if we could see an interesting very late season snow, you want to at least start with pattern(s) of this ilk, that which we are seeing suggested by the panoply of teleconnectors, along with off and on solutions in their respective operational runs.  We just happened to sans the latter per the 00z... so what?  If one gets any of this, that's irrelevant. 

 

I think it would be a more prudent action, ...good for the welfare of all users, not to change the title of this thread, rather to consider 'who' is allowed to waste electrons in the general sphere of social media; and that the half of WATT of energy consumption it took to waste all our times with NOT funny trolling, could have been...gee, I dunno:  used to solve world hunger somehow... 

 

That all aside, taking the 06z oper. GFS verbatim (just to expose an example..) that would produce snow down to nearly sea-level, without the benefit of an organized system.  

 

I'd like to take a moment just to anecdotal.  I recall snow in three different Mays in the early 2000's.  One such year, I think it was 2001 ...it was nearing the 20th of May, and 1.5" of snow blanketed Boston Commons around 10:30 PM.  I know ...I was there. And I recall the sky visage, with convective looking nimbi cloud types having city glow reflecting off of snow curtains that hung beneath as the cluster that did the deed was moving E over the Harbor.  I also recall a Nor'easter in 2002, that brought noodles and mangled aggregates mixing into sheeting big drop rains in Waltham.  ORH (I think) may have even accumulated over an inch of snow...) That event also was post the 15th of May.  Of course, we have the bigger ones of lore, '77 and '87 and so forth.  The 06z  GFS would produce enough cold instability to do a 2001-esque whitening.

 

This is not a big stretch people... We're talking the last 10 days of April. Not even may. Granted it's late, but we aren't disputing that. Here's a novel way to consider things:  there are no leaves on the trees, and the flowering shrubbery are struggling to do so (in general)... At some point in history, it was damn winter like until pretty frickin' late, and did so enough times to instill an evolutionary message there.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Btw, I do also see an end to all of that... I don't think it will protract and gobble up all of May... at least, not for the current form of the outlook.  May could poop out, too, but it would be for a different set of causes if it did.. 

 

The longer term tele's break down the -NAO...and with the PNA fairly neutral and the EPO rising concertedly among the GEFs members beyond D9...The medium of the Lakes-OV-NE probably get back on spring track for a time.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah, I could see a pattern like that taking hold for two weeks or so.

May 2002 had a decent snow here

[CoastalWx]

All started with the squash talk..which apparently was wrong

Because it is verbatim. I also said several times it could come back, but that's the risk we have. Like I said. Bad to worse.

[Damage In Tolland]

Because it is verbatim. I also said several times it could come back, but that's the risk we have. Like I said. Bad to worse.

Well according to our inpatient in the straight jacket at Bellevue.. It's still there with a good chance at verifying

[Ginx snewx]

Well according to our inpatient in the straight jacket at Bellevue.. It's still there with a good chance at verifying

in the time it took me to read it world peace was achieved

[HoarfrostHubb]

in the time it took me to read it world peace was achieved

It was a well written post.

[Damage In Tolland]

in the time it took me to read it world peace was achieved

deep end type stuff.

[Ginx snewx]

It was a well written post.

without the drama it would have been better

[CoastalWx]

Well nobody said it couldn't happen.  My post about the verbatim solutions of course got spun. However, it easily could be just a cold pool overhead with chilly self destructive sun and aftn graupel/flakes like the GFS suggests.  This also may be great for favored upslope spots in NNE too. 

 

I only mention it because it seemed some people perhaps felt eager for late season snow....a lot of things have to go right. Perhaps they will, perhaps not. Models are always going to have some issues resolving blocks.

[powderfreak]

Well nobody said it couldn't happen.  My post about the verbatim solutions of course got spun. However, it easily could be just a cold pool overhead with chilly self destructive sun and aftn graupel/flakes like the GFS suggests.  This also may be great for favored upslope spots in NNE too. 

 

I only mention it because it seemed some people perhaps felt eager for late season snow....a lot of things have to go right. Perhaps they will, perhaps not. Models are always going to have some issues resolving blocks.

 

And with that, everyone left the thread ... once upslope starts being discussed, crickets.

 

Anyway, that has crossed my mind.  We can do quite well in the northern Greens with the right location of a cut-off upper level low.  There are definitely some pretty sizable April upslope precipitation events because of that.

 

2012 and 2010 both had huge mountain snowstorms from upslope.

 

This was 1-day precipitation in April 2012, when BTV had only 0.05" in the bucket while 20 miles away in the mountain valleys there was 1-2" of upslope precip.  We had 1.25" in Stowe, but the mountain summit had like 2+ inches and 27" of snow.

 

 

 

The thing with this time of year, is the atmosphere has more moisture so upslope can be quite productive.  You'd never see 1-2" of upslope precipitation fall down here in the valley in January, but April can do it.

[CoastalWx]

And with that, everyone left the thread ... once upslope starts being discussed, crickets.

 

Anyway, that has crossed my mind.  We can do quite well in the northern Greens with the right location of a cut-off upper level low.  There are definitely some pretty sizable April upslope precipitation events because of that.

 

2012 and 2010 both had huge mountain snowstorms from upslope.

 

This was 1-day precipitation in April 2012, when BTV had only 0.05" in the bucket while 20 miles away in the mountain valleys there was 1-2" of upslope precip.  We had 1.25" in Stowe, but the mountain summit had like 2+ inches and 27" of snow.

 

 

 

The thing with this time of year, is the atmosphere has more moisture so upslope can be quite productive.  You'd never see 1-2" of upslope precipitation fall down here in the valley in January, but April can do it.

Yep, exactly. If it sets up right..could be pretty nice. I remember both events.

[powderfreak]

I do think the most realistic option is and always has been cold pool graupel/rain/snow showers. 

[Ginx snewx]

I do think the most realistic option is and always has been cold pool graupel/rain/snow showers.

you can't be talking about Stowe Vt USA like that with this setup?

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't know..Euro has 2 legit snow chances it looks like for interior ,elevated SNE..Both Friday and again around the 28th. I would honestly watch that..As of now..it would be convective type stuff..but if you get some decent bands could drop an inch or something like that

[CoastalWx]

I don't know..Euro has 2 legit snow chances it looks like for interior ,elevated SNE..Both Friday and again around the 28th. I would honestly watch that

 

My gut is any chance is more the 28th. As of now, Friday (actually Thursday) looks like a trough with a shwr or even a storm in the aftn or evening. Maybe snow in VT mtns.  The key word is chance. I think we all know the difficulty..even in the higher elevations this time of year.

[Damage In Tolland]

My gut is any chance is more the 28th. As of now, Friday (actually Thursday) looks like a trough with a shwr or even a storm in the aftn or evening. Maybe snow in VT mtns. The key word is chance. I think we all know the difficulty..even in the higher elevations this time of year.

Maybe an inch or two of soft hail Friday?

[CoastalWx]

Maybe an inch or two of soft hail Friday?

 

We could hope...lol.

[codfishsnowman]

crickets lol

[Typhoon Tip]

crickets lol

 

There is an inherent sort of dilemma with starting threads that discuss pattern philosophies for intervals of time that don't even begin for another 7 days.  If said interval is candy to the masses, there tends to be an immediate fascination, followed by a kind of, "okay, now what -"

 

Unfortunately, that 'now what' is a lot of hurry up and wait.  Crickets are function of haste in wait

 

Also, it allows all kinds of time for permutations to alter the paradigms discussed, prior to getting to that extended range.  In this case, however,  the teleoconnectors and pretty stable -- shocking in its self considering the inherent variability of spring, effecting not only operational runs, ...but so much so that stochastics even invade the weighted ensemble means.  Be that as it may, the overall mass-fields want to situate a -NAO block over top a strong, negative anomaly over SE Canada and the near-by Maritime regions. 

 

This continues to support the notion of cooler rather than warmer times, with some lesser possibility of seeing obnoxiously late season snow.  

 

Re the latter (seeing as that's pretty much the only attraction/redeeming value to this...) the 28th of the month continues to be the primary focus during this 5 to 7 day stretch of -NAO imposed cool anomalies and such.  The problem is, ... right back to original point, that's still 9 days away. So, we wait and fill up banter threads with woe-is-me doctrines, sports scores, and pot shots off the bow of Kevin's glaring forehead.  

[Amped]

Was just about to post it. Of course Tip beat me to it. I really think this is a nice pattern setup for a late season storm in NNE and upstate NY. If it can snow on memorial day, it can snow more in late April. 

[Typhoon Tip]

There are disparate evidences on this 12z run that pertain to the cool pattern as erstwhile discussed. 

 

One, the entire 850 mb domain space is being modulated warmer ...most likely as the model budgets in insolation consistent with hot post April 15 increasing solar input ...equivalent to mid-late August actually.  Think of it ... trying to sustain a -1 or -2 SD air mass around August 21st...Good luck.  

 

The flip side, there is enough cold vestige that should the below west Atlantic spring cut-off evolve closer to the coast, that would put snow in the air.  

 

[Ginx snewx]

Euro Ens have trended further south with the 5h, something to watch.

[champy]

Thought I'd share this tidbit as related to current pattern and threat..

 

I'm from just west of Syracuse (Skaneateles, elevation ~600') NY and we had what seems to be a similar occurrence on April 16, 2007. We had a heavy rain come through the start which immediately turned over to heavy heavy wet snow. We were in the perfect forcing and dynamics in the atmosphere for nearly all snow (15") while literally 16 miles to the east in Syracuse they got a quick 6" of paste and turned right back to rain. Slightly south of  us in the more hilly country of Moravia, Cortland, Ithaca some areas received 20". It was pretty amazing seeing as I was trying to go trout fishing in foot deep snow in mid April. Next quite experienced anything like it, talk about perfect place, perfect time. I have some pics here:

[CoastalWx]

The GFS like 4 days out did it's classic 4 day too far SE prog burying even Boston. That was an inevitable NW tick with each run until it tucked into NJ.

[Damage In Tolland]

Chumpy.. Nice pics. That looks like fluff. That's crazy. I remember that storm. I would hope if it happens , it's heavy and wet and rather damaging

[powderfreak]

Thought I'd share this tidbit as related to current pattern and threat..

 

I'm from just west of Syracuse (Skaneateles, elevation ~600') NY and we had what seems to be a similar occurrence on April 16, 2007. We had a heavy rain come through the start which immediately turned over to heavy heavy wet snow. We were in the perfect forcing and dynamics in the atmosphere for nearly all snow (15") while literally 16 miles to the east in Syracuse they got a quick 6" of paste and turned right back to rain. Slightly south of  us in the more hilly country of Moravia, Cortland, Ithaca some areas received 20". It was pretty amazing seeing as I was trying to go trout fishing in foot deep snow in mid April. Next quite experienced anything like it, talk about perfect place, perfect time. I have some pics here:

 

Nice that looks like a solid paste job.  Sweet pics. 

[OceanStWx]

Nice that looks like a solid paste job.  Sweet pics. 

 

Yep, the year after I graduated and left ITH.

[nzucker]

Nice that looks like a solid paste job.  Sweet pics. 

We did well in VT from that storm...had about 5" in Middlebury before changing to rain. I remember waking up at 4am and looking out the window..."holy crap it's snowing in mid April." Welcome to Vermont.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well ... perhaps this won't be so bad.  

 

The chances for one last fleeting snow are going down, but so is the overall profoundness of pointless, disgusting schit pattern.  

 

I mentioned this yesterday ...and the theme has again transpired in the operational runs last night, the modeled 850 mb cold departures are being normalized in time, as we begin this trek through the NAO nadir.  Additionally, the length of time of the latter has also shrunk, now ~ a week, then the index actually goes positive.  

 

Another teleconnector aspect that's corrected since we started discussing the ~ 22nd through May 2nd time frame is the PNA. It's modeled curve out in time looks only a vague resemblance of its original appeal from 5 days ago at one agency, and utterly different at the CDC.

 

 

It would seem, then, that support overall has been breaking down ...for the most part, in tandem with these operational runs. Hard to say what is the exact cause, overall, but I suspect that seasonal change-influence and the typical enhanced stochastic of spring combined with daily affixing of the thermal tapestry of the hemisphere as the sun pummels onward toward the warm months of the year ...all play a role. We're rapidly losing the "locked in" patterns that come along with the higher ambient gradients of the heart of the winter. Such that these teleconnectors begin to correlate differently if at all. This last facet was warned for this period in question, as well ...

 

Btw, the Euro actually sneaks in a balmy nape day on Wednesday, with suggested partly sunny, light WSW wind, and 850's of +5.

 

We may just get lucky and avoid the overall schits, too.  Normally recessed/cool days in late April, instead...