stadiumwave Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 gis is about to get horse torchedI'd be surprised if this happened over Greenland. The NAEFS 8-14 day temp probabilities are much more reliable than OP model runs. No torch detected near Greenlandhttp://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2015061412_054@007_E1_global_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Both globals show GIS ridging and WAA steadily increasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 So we keep see how fast albedo drops. With plentiful sunshine and strong WAA for the foreseeable future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 The GFS and Euro both break out a big torch ClassiC stalled vortex to the South pumping warm moist air into GIS while a major ridge sits on top. The models show days on end with 5-10C 850s along the W/SW/SE coast of GIS. this is the classic major melt signal. I'd expect albedo to plummet with major melt ponds before July 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Greenland is so far behind on melt this year that we will never catch up to 2012 or probably even last year. There is only like 7 weeks left of major melting with max insolation as we wasted most of June with the cold pattern after no preconditioning in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 So it begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Yeah the models show conditions favorable for big time melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 The 00z models smoke GIS like a fat blunt. Death Star torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Looks like we might get a few days over 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 So it begins... Likely going to reach 55-65%.Could reach 75%. Highest since 2012 for sure. By July 1st albedo will be near record lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 No end through July 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 It looks like DMI has removed the sea level contribution charts as i don't see them on the site anymore. Albedo is much better when compared to last year at this time because of the slow start to the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 So it begins... Melt has vigorously picked up. And the biggest torching during this -NAO is just starting. The graphic above shows 30-35% For the past 10 days. Given the modeled temps the next 10 days. I would think it will jump to 40-50% average with a one day peak of 65-75%. ASTA around GIS have blown up. Snow is mostly gone on the land areas. Albedo is finally plummeting. Late start but major melt underway. If this pattern holds the next 7 weeks then this year will abruptly be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Melt has vigorously picked up. And the biggest torching during this -NAO is just starting. The graphic above shows 30-35% For the past 10 days. Given the modeled temps the next 10 days. I would think it will jump to 40-50% average with a one day peak of 65-75%. ASTA around GIS have blown up. Snow is mostly gone on the land areas. Albedo is finally plummeting. Late start but major melt underway. If this pattern holds the next 7 weeks then this year will abruptly be bad. Rtavn422.gif Rtavn902.gif You have about 4 weeks before Greenland melt will decline quickly (climo). Your "7 weeks" is a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 So it begins... pretty big melt week and it looks to continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 pretty big melt week and it looks to continue GIS is being totally annihilated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Amazing we had the winter we did with a strong +NAO. In any case, models show Greenland finally warming up as a ridge builds into the area. This is after a few more days of cold conditions with -10C 850s atop the ice sheet..A lot of cold continues to get dumped into the United Kingdom and Northern Europe where 850s are below 0C in many areas even in the middle of June, and this should accelerate with a significant trough moving into Spain/France as the NAO declines in the coming week. Shouldn't have been so 'amazing' frankly. I realize I am but one voice opposed to a shrill din of bandwagoneers .. but no, 'been pounding the "NAO over rated drum" for a number of years. But hey - the only way to heard is to published so, taken fwiw - The EPO domain space and its timed relay into mode changes in the PNA, together serve as the primary cold loading patterns over N/A. The NAO is merely an assist, but not required. People pull statistics out of the cherry tree that show that x-y-z years were negative NAOs when more snow occurred, thus the natural conclusion is a-b-c. But no, ..that is all more likely because there is a weak negative correlation in the PNA/NAO relationship. Such that a rising PNA tends concurrently with a falling NAO over the longer term. Retrograde events do take place from time to time, but the rest state is west to east... NAO doesn't dictate snow events people. In fact, a "statically" negative NAO is a suppress flow exertion and that causes perturbations in the atmosphere to dampen/shear. The NAO may have positive last year on the whole, but I bet you dimes to donuts it was fluctuating up and down, above 0 SD, as the PNA/EPO were doing their thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted July 8, 2015 Author Share Posted July 8, 2015 Latest from NSIDC on GIS surface melting: I believe it is safe to say that recent surface melting has made up for the slow start to the melt season. I wonder is some of the acceleration of the surface melting is due to the snow melting off and exposing the darker surface of the glacial ice. Here is the albedo change plot from DMI: The DarkSnow team, led by Dr Jason Box, is now in Greenland studying the processes that affect the albedo of glacial ice. If you haven't visited their website [link], it's worth a read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Greenland is beginning to make up for it's slow start. The model ENS are pretty warm for the next week as well. Little chance it makes it to the drop of 2012, but interesting to see how much ground a short period of time can "make up" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted July 8, 2015 Author Share Posted July 8, 2015 The GIS is also experiencing a large amount of mass loss through glacial calving. Here's a short video of one event in June where roughly 1 km3 (1 gigaton) calved off in a matter of minutes : http://climatecrocks.com/2015/07/02/watch-as-empire-state-size-chunk-breaks-off-greenland/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 That second band of low albedo on the left side of gis is bad bad bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 WOW!!!! Those are running 8-12C. That is incredible. The average there is around 0-2C. this melt season went from nothing to epic in a flash. Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Jason Box is reporting albedo has dropped to lowest on record for this date. Just unreal how bad in just 17-20 days it has gotten. Will albedo fall below 2012s lowest mark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Holy ****. Really that is incredible. That's a huge area that is only 1000-1500M up on the most gentle slopes in Greenland. So there is a large surface area open to major melt. Above 1500M is much tougher to get that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Still pretty strong melt in Greenland. Models show the ice sheet cooling off later this week, which should slow losses a bit. Compare this to 2013 or 2014 and we are way ahead. 2015: 2013: 2014: 2014: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 The western GIS looks ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Looks like a major cooldown coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Looks like a major cooldown coming. It's already happening and we still have this. The albedo got wrecked so hard by soot and melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09/16/jason_box_s_research_into_greenland_s_dark_snow_raises_more_concerns_about.html Slate Exclusive: Why Greenland’s “Dark Snow” Should Worry You Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 There will be above normal chances for strong August melt along the 1200M line in August with crippled albedo and the strong -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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