brettjrob Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 The long-awaited cutoff advertised from the medium range last week is now materializing over the Desert SW, promising more drought-denting rainfall for much of the southern and central Plains. Of interest is that it's settled in just a hair farther E than originally modeled, and more importantly, that overnight/morning convection tomorrow and Friday doesn't look quite as overwhelming in coverage as it did on guidance several days ago. As a result, a moderate to substantial severe threat may evolve for the TX Panhandle and surrounding areas both days. Right now, tomorrow (Thu 4/16) looks to have the higher ceiling due to stronger low-level shear. However, both days will be highly contingent on the timing and coverage of convection prior to the optimal diurnal window (21z-02z). If the dryline and areas along the Caprock experience sufficient insolation for widespread 1500-2500 J/kg SBCAPE by late afternoon, I think this could be the most substantial tornado threat in the Panhandle since 2010-04-22, as little as that's saying these days. Speaking of which, this setup has some remarkable similarities to that day, including concerns over early initiation and a lack of modeled low-level shear until 00z. Friday (4/17) is not too different a setup, since the cutoff will be quasistationary, but current progs indicate weaker low-level shear. Still, if diurnal timing of initiation is favorable, another day with several to numerous intense supercells and some tornado threat may be on tap. Having chased for about a decade now and paid a lot of attention to the TX PH, as it's my favorite chase area, it's become apparent that closed lows around the Four Corners are very favorable in general. It's been a long time since we've seen a solid setup out there with relatively backed flow throughout the depth of the troposphere, another hallmark of many PH tornado days. It's possible that both days will underperform because of timing issues, but from a pattern recognition standpoint, I'm impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Got a tornado warning east of Stinnett, nice couplet on that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 The severe storm watchless streak for the metroplex is finally over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 On the phone so can't post radar but watch the cell in palo pinto county for possible tornado warning, has a good couplet on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Solid couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Yep, three tor warned cells in the eastern TX panhandle at 5:30 CDT. Things might get even more interesting when the LLJ ramps up later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 525 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN HEMPHILL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 522 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALLISON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN HEMPHILL COUNTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Low level jet might not crank up fast enough for these storms; they're already getting messy and starting to merge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Low level jet might not crank up fast enough for these storms; they're already getting messy and starting to merge. Stronger southerlies in the lowest 1km would help somewhat. I think the bigger problem is the lack of any veering with height in the lowest 3km, and only moderate veering through 6km. See the 18Z KAMA sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Have not even remotely been interested in this period, from a chasing standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Arkansas and vicinity looks to have potential on Sunday, judging by recent guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Very strong velocities on that MCS about to plow into DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Several discrete cells are popping up in Arkansas and east Texas. One tornado warning west of Little Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 The cell approaching Shreveport looks pretty suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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