Historic Winter '14-'15 Wrap Up And Outlook Verification Assessment

[40/70 Benchmark]

Enjoy guys...no need to re-read the outlook part again if you already have, unless you need a refresher.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nice job

[CoastalWx]

Nice recap. I think most would agree the AO/NAO certainly didn't behave as we thought it would, but the Pacific is king as usual. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Nice recap. I think most would agree the AO/NAO certainly didn't behave as we thought it would, but the Pacific is king as usual. 

Yes, agreed.

Thanks.

[GaWx]

 I just noticed that BOX averaged ~20:1 ratios from late Jan through Feb. Extreme cold + snow ftw. Does anyone know if anything even resembling that has occurred there in recorded history for storm after storm? What were the ratios like in, say, Jan-Feb. during other very high snow years? Anything even close to this?

 

 1/26/15-2/28/15 at BOX: 91.4" of snow from 4.54" of liquid equivalent for 20:1 ratio

 

http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box

[Ginx snewx]

I just noticed that BOX averaged ~20:1 ratios from late Jan through Feb. Extreme cold + snow ftw. Does anyone know if anything even resembling that has occurred there in recorded history for storm after storm? What were the ratios like in, say, Jan-Feb. during other very high snow years? Anything even close to this?

1/26/15-2/28/15 at BOX: 91.4" of snow from 4.54" of liquid equivalent for 20:1 ratio

http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box

that's incredible as over and over on this forum many have told me 20-1 was impossible over an extended period

[backedgeapproaching]

that's incredible as over and over on this forum many have told me 20-1 was impossible over an extended period

We ratio.

 

Seriously though, its been beaten to death, but still in awe of close to 100" in 1 months time.  You needed 20-1 ratios to get to those totals in that short of a time period.

[CoastalWx]

That's assuming they got all the precip melted which probably isn't the case. I doubt I averaged 20:1. They also had that mixed precip event in early Feb.

[Ginx snewx]

That's assuming they got all the precip melted which probably isn't the case. I doubt I averaged 20:1. They also had that mixed precip event in early Feb.

Norfolk had a 14-1 ratio with the mixed event included

Date	Precip in.	Snowfall in.	Core Precip in.	Total Snow Depth in.	Total SWE in.
01/23/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	0.0	NA
01/24/2015  	0.26	2.8	NA	3.0	NA
01/25/2015  	0.50	2.8	NA	5.0	NA
01/26/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	5.0	NA
01/27/2015  	1.19	15.5	NA	19.0	NA
01/28/2015  	0.42	6.8	NA	25.0	NA
01/29/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	25.0	NA
01/30/2015  	0.01	0.3	NA	25.0	NA
01/31/2015  	0.09	0.4	NA	10.2	NA
02/01/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	26.0	NA
02/02/2015  	0.31	4.4	NA	29.0	NA
02/03/2015  	0.58	8.1	NA	31.0	NA
02/04/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	30.0	NA
02/05/2015  	T	T	NA	27.0	NA
02/06/2015  	0.21	2.6	NA	29.0	NA
02/07/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	27.0	NA
02/08/2015  	0.22	3.4	NA	30.0	NA
02/09/2015  	0.31	5.5	NA	33.0	NA
02/10/2015  	0.56	7.8	NA	40.0	NA
02/11/2015  	T	0.1	NA	40.0	NA
02/12/2015  	0.04	0.6	NA	39.0	NA
02/13/2015  	0.02	0.5	NA	38.0	NA
02/14/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	37.0	NA
02/15/2015  	0.62	10.2	NA	44.0	NA
02/16/2015  	0.24	4.3	NA	43.0	NA
02/17/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	42.0	NA
02/18/2015  	0.05	1.3	NA	39.0	NA
02/19/2015  	0.12	2.2	NA	38.0	NA
02/20/2015  	T	0.1	NA	37.0	NA
02/21/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	36.0	NA
Totals :	5.75 in.	79.7 in.	0.00 in.	--	--

[CoastalWx]

Without really checking, that seems more reasonable.

[GaWx]

Without really checking, that seems more reasonable.

Wow, is it possible that BOX underestimated/undermeasured their liquid equivalents by that much? Is liquid equivalent typically not easy to measure accurately anywhere?

[Ginx snewx]

Wow, is it possible that BOX underestimated/undermeasured their liquid equivalents by that much? Is liquid equivalent typically not easy to measure accurately anywhere?

looking at various additional Cocorahs stations it appears they did, most are 13 to 15-1 but keep in mind there were a couple of mix events . My all snow events averaged 14-1

[ORH_wxman]

Wow, is it possible that BOX underestimated/undermeasured their liquid equivalents by that much? Is liquid equivalent typically not easy to measure accurately anywhere?

 

ASOS is notorious for underestimating snow L.E....esp when it is very dry snow.

 

That said, most of the snow was still quite fluffy. But I'd almost guarantee that it didn't average 20 to 1 over that whole period.

[CoastalWx]

The large storms weren't all fluff jobs. The blizzard was wind blown packed in snow. The early feb snow was wet here for a time. The long duration storm didn't start out fluffy , although a good chunk of that storm was more towards the fluffier variety. The 2nd part and also the heaviest part of the 2/14-2/15 event certainly was drier. However, I find it difficult that the average during the 4 week blitz was 20:1.

[powderfreak]

Norfolk had a 14-1 ratio with the mixed event included

Date	Precip in.	Snowfall in.	Core Precip in.	Total Snow Depth in.	Total SWE in.
01/23/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	0.0	NA
01/24/2015  	0.26	2.8	NA	3.0	NA
01/25/2015  	0.50	2.8	NA	5.0	NA
01/26/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	5.0	NA
01/27/2015  	1.19	15.5	NA	19.0	NA
01/28/2015  	0.42	6.8	NA	25.0	NA
01/29/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	25.0	NA
01/30/2015  	0.01	0.3	NA	25.0	NA
01/31/2015  	0.09	0.4	NA	10.2	NA
02/01/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	26.0	NA
02/02/2015  	0.31	4.4	NA	29.0	NA
02/03/2015  	0.58	8.1	NA	31.0	NA
02/04/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	30.0	NA
02/05/2015  	T	T	NA	27.0	NA
02/06/2015  	0.21	2.6	NA	29.0	NA
02/07/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	27.0	NA
02/08/2015  	0.22	3.4	NA	30.0	NA
02/09/2015  	0.31	5.5	NA	33.0	NA
02/10/2015  	0.56	7.8	NA	40.0	NA
02/11/2015  	T	0.1	NA	40.0	NA
02/12/2015  	0.04	0.6	NA	39.0	NA
02/13/2015  	0.02	0.5	NA	38.0	NA
02/14/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	37.0	NA
02/15/2015  	0.62	10.2	NA	44.0	NA
02/16/2015  	0.24	4.3	NA	43.0	NA
02/17/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	42.0	NA
02/18/2015  	0.05	1.3	NA	39.0	NA
02/19/2015  	0.12	2.2	NA	38.0	NA
02/20/2015  	T	0.1	NA	37.0	NA
02/21/2015  	0.00	0.0	NA	36.0	NA
Totals :	5.75 in.	79.7 in.	0.00 in.	--	--

Man that's like living for a month at the Picnic Tables during the heart of winter.

But that ratio makes a lot more sense. ASOS can't capture SWE worth anything, especially in windy events. I'm even surprised it registered that much liquid...unless they augmented with cores?

You see it all the time where like 10" of snow comes in as like 0.33" in an ASOS bucket but all the CoCoRAHS stations are like 0.75".

[ORH_wxman]

Man that's like living for a month at the Picnic Tables during the heart of winter.

But that ratio makes a lot more sense. ASOS can't capture SWE worth anything, especially in windy events. I'm even surprised it registered that much liquid...unless they augmented with cores?

You see it all the time where like 10" of snow comes in as like 0.33" in an ASOS bucket but all the CoCoRAHS stations are like 0.75".

 

It was crazy...I think there was only 5 days out of 30 with zero snow at ORH between Jan 24 and Feb 22...all the rest were a trace or more...with probably close to 20 of them being measurable. And of course, those measurables added up to over 90 inches, lol.

 

The longer we get away from that period, the more ridiculous it will probably look.

[powderfreak]

It was crazy...I think there was only 5 days out of 30 with zero snow at ORH between Jan 24 and Feb 22...all the rest were a trace or more...with probably close to 20 of them being measurable. And of course, those measurables added up to over 90 inches, lol.

The longer we get away from that period, the more ridiculous it will probably look.

Yeah it's incredible...that's a March 2001 month-type period for the higher elevations of northern Vermont, except it happened in Boston and ORH down to the south shore of CT. Rocky Mountain snowfall in a very populated area...dry powder does add up nicely in large quantities with no thaws.

[Turtle]

 I just noticed that BOX averaged ~20:1 ratios from late Jan through Feb. Extreme cold + snow ftw. Does anyone know if anything even resembling that has occurred there in recorded history for storm after storm? What were the ratios like in, say, Jan-Feb. during other very high snow years? Anything even close to this?

 

 1/26/15-2/28/15 at BOX: 91.4" of snow from 4.54" of liquid equivalent for 20:1 ratio

 

http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box

 

The 4.54" is from ASOS, not from WFO BOX.  I can tell you that the KBOX average low temperature for February was equal to ASOS (8 miles SE from the office).  

 

Since KBOX is a cooperative observer station, you can look this up on NOWData.  Here's the fact sheet on this:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/brochures/climate/NOWDATAactsheetD.pdf

 

Here's the NOWData page on the WFO BOX website:

 

http://www.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=box

 

Click on the "NOWData" tab in the upper right corner.  You will then see the list of stations that are available.

 

Our office's co-op station ID is Taunton 4NW.  You can see the January, February and March data and do the comparison to ASOS.

 

I reviewed the data carefully along with our office's cooperative program manager.  We feel that we did the best we could to get a good capture in the precip can to get a good meltdown for each storm.  We do the snow meltdown at 7 AM daily, while we measure the snow every 6 hours (since we are a 24x7 site), then clear the snow board.

 

Hope this helps.

 

--Turtle

[Typhoon Tip]

 I just noticed that BOX averaged ~20:1 ratios from late Jan through Feb. Extreme cold + snow ftw. Does anyone know if anything even resembling that has occurred there in recorded history for storm after storm? What were the ratios like in, say, Jan-Feb. during other very high snow years? Anything even close to this?

 

 1/26/15-2/28/15 at BOX: 91.4" of snow from 4.54" of liquid equivalent for 20:1 ratio

 

http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box

 

The biggest achievement of this winter may really be the cold its self.  The snow's kind of an accident for putting ANY pwat at all into an environment that was so extreme.   It's like an agenda was in play to inflate snow totals enough to break records ..ha!  When really, it was all about cold: a Meteorological variable. 

 

I brought this up a month or so ago and it seemed to generate that sort of knee-jerk antithetic post content, as though it violated something so now people gotta nick chunks of validity off an unsavory truth... A few were trying to claim that QP were closer to 7", not the 4.54 there...  I didn't argue the fact further, did not look it up, though I did wonder.  I just figured the real fact of the matter is/was, hell hath no fury like when taking the objective temerity to qualitatively assess that amazing 4 to 5 week period.  Which it was...don't get me wrong.  

 

Truth be told, and I know I have my detractors on this ...so be it; I was impressed by this winter, but not awed and carried away by it. I was also not surprised by the result, either.  I mentioned this way back in latter Dec and into January, how in the proverbial sense I thought the winter was thus far playing with fire... We kept getting those -2 type SD cold waves passing though S/SE Canada, that would occasionally wedge into NE for 12 to 18 hour stints...Then it would modify and rain for 6 to 9 hours, and then the cold would come back.  It was doing this as though the southern stream and northern stream were merely out of phase/timing ... And it was different than other rain-freeze-rain oscillatory patterns because the EPO was was involved.. It was a large scale screwing that I wondered if it could really keep getting "lucky"  ...That luck ran out.

 

For me, what this winter showed more than anything is that as impressive as 100" at BOS was...it can be achieved without straining the imagination on how to get there.  I can see a 200" year, folks... It would not have taken much even for this year to get the deed done. Just two cut-off season, self-containing cold bombs would have pushed them over 150" as it is, and there were couple of systems that trended flatter during that five week stretch, too ..As it is said in other genre, this winter, for all it's glory, left some on the table.  

 

I am not a hydrologist -- it's just my personal hunch. But I don't think the lack of flooding off a 109" snow season is TOTALLY because of ideal gentle melt rates.  I think it was the COMBINATION of ideal, gentle melt rates with the fact that there was not that much water in the snow pack to begin with.  The numbers don't lie.  

 

Now ... we can say that looking back over the 200 ... 300 years of data demos pretty clearly that 100" is rare, and we would be right. But what this year really did was mix incredible cold with any normal moisture, giving a taste of what is REALLY possible.  

[Ginx snewx]

I brought this up a month or so ago and it seemed to generate that sort of knee-jerk antithetic post content, as though it violated something so now people gotta nick chunks of validity off an unsavory truth... A few were trying to claim that QP were closer to 7", not the 4.54 there... I didn't argue the fact further, did not look it up, though I did wonder.

nobody was trying to claim, it's fact, read the posts following the one you quoted. The ASOS qpf was wrong and NWS MET TURTLE confirmed it.

[CoastalWx]

After this winter and given the past three winters including this one...I'd have to avg about 26" from here on out for the next 7 seaons to get to my ~45" or so avg. If we assume 10 yrs.  Pretty nuts.

[Typhoon Tip]

After this winter and given the past three winters including this one...I'd have to avg about 26" from here on out for the next 7 seaons to get to my ~45" or so avg. If we assume 10 yrs.  Pretty nuts.

 

GW ?    

 

seriously tho ... the "climate models" (pick your university and/or governmental sponsored science source...) have been predicting that a consequence of GW is the increased frequency in extreme events.  

 

Yes, eventually if the Globe continues to warm ... quite intuitively any x, y, z location on the face of the planet will actually experience hotter measured temperatures over their longer term averages.  But initially ...that would be less sensible. The every day experience does not recognize incremental increases that are several decimal places out.  It is the system that is far more sensitive for balancing energy source and since ... such is increased frequency of significant events. 

 

It seems to me just existentially since ..oh 1990 or so, personally I've been through more extremes.  I have seen the hottest summers, and the coldest, snowiest winter more in the past three decades, ...well, I have to end my sentence there because I wasn't around much before then.  

 

Obviously, my personal account on matters hardly atones to a whole planet (haha).  Moreover, media and entertainment, et al, have really become fixated on natural disasters over that time.  Does fact engender fiction? It is known that entertainment often reflects times.   At the same time, the events of atmospheric phenomena have well invaded the pablum of news reels.  Enough so that it gee, maybe it is more substantive than mere pablum?  

 

Probably...a little of both. 

 

It only took some five decades of media-as-an-industry for the economic goals of said industry to completely and utterly erode the motto of Journalistic Integrity ... but, headlines sell when accepting that erosion.  So, it's hard to really know what is fact and fiction out there when relying on any media outlet that panders to mainstay society, when latter has seemingly no end to appetite for destruction. That's a weird causal relationship when one things about it.  Usually, in any industrial model, you remove the demand, you remove the production that serves that demand.  If you queried the J.Q. Passer-bye on the street, ..it doesn't seem likely that stranger would openly admit to buying papers, magazines, ...subscribing to cable television, where headlines are more attractive... I think the strangers are lying.

 

Be that as it may ... when sifting out the carnage of CNN and FOX news' various idiosyncratic corruptions of fact ... there are veracious scientific mediums out there releasing refereed statistics and paper noting that increases in frequency have been taking place.

[GaWx]

The 4.54" is from ASOS, not from WFO BOX.  I can tell you that the KBOX average low temperature for February was equal to ASOS (8 miles SE from the office).  

 

Since KBOX is a cooperative observer station, you can look this up on NOWData.  Here's the fact sheet on this:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/brochures/climate/NOWDATAactsheetD.pdf

 

Here's the NOWData page on the WFO BOX website:

 

http://www.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=box

 

Click on the "NOWData" tab in the upper right corner.  You will then see the list of stations that are available.

 

Our office's co-op station ID is Taunton 4NW.  You can see the January, February and March data and do the comparison to ASOS.

 

I reviewed the data carefully along with our office's cooperative program manager.  We feel that we did the best we could to get a good capture in the precip can to get a good meltdown for each storm.  We do the snow meltdown at 7 AM daily, while we measure the snow every 6 hours (since we are a 24x7 site), then clear the snow board.

 

Hope this helps.

 

--Turtle

 

Thanks, Turtle! I went ahead and did a comparison between Tauton4NW and BOX for the four snowiest periods of late Jan-Feb of 2015 and one can clearly see how much higher are the implied ratios for BOX vs Taunton based on reported SN and L.E.:

 

1/27-8: Taunton 20.8" SN & 1.61" L.E. for a ratio of 13:1

             BOX       22.3" SN & 0.96" L.E. for a ratio of 23:1

 

2/2-3:   Taunton 11.2" SN & 1.16" L.E. for a ratio of 10:1

            BOX        16.2" SN & 0.78" L.E. for a ratio of 21:1

 

2/8-10  Taunton 14.0" SN & 1.14" L.E. for a ratio of 12:1

            BOX        22.9" SN & 1.30" L.E. for a ratio of 18:1

 

2/14-6  Taunton 14.1" SN & 0.69" L.E. for a ratio of 20:1

            BOX        16.2" SN & 0.62" L.E. for a ratio of 26:1

 

 So, if I'm understanding you correctly, the lower implied ratios at Taunton are much more reflective of reality than those for BOX.

[tamarack]

The large storms weren't all fluff jobs. The blizzard was wind blown packed in snow. The early feb snow was wet here for a time. The long duration storm didn't start out fluffy , although a good chunk of that storm was more towards the fluffier variety. The 2nd part and also the heaviest part of the 2/14-2/15 event certainly was drier. However, I find it difficult that the average during the 4 week blitz was 20:1.

 

Much farther north, but the bolded part was certainly true.  That storm had a 9.2 ratio, with 2.17" for 20" snowfall.  However, I was only able to measure once, and that about 12 hr after the end of accumulating snow.  Had I been at home rather than in SNJ (27th) or driving north (28th), I'd probably have measured early afternoon and regular 9 PM on 1/27 then at 7 AM on 1/28, and might have recorded 24"+ - we'll never know.

 

The storms of Jan 30-31 and Feb 2-3 totaled 16.6" with 1.08" LE, ratio 15.4".  Then the subsequent 16.0" of nickels & dimes (TM), 8 separate "events" thru Feb 28, had an exact 20:1 ratio, not too surprising for small events in bitter cold.

[Cold Miser]

Just got around to reading this. ...ALL of it. Very insightful and enjoyable.

[Turtle]

Thanks, Turtle! I went ahead and did a comparison between Tauton4NW and BOX for the four snowiest periods of late Jan-Feb of 2015 and one can clearly see how much higher are the implied ratios for BOX vs Taunton based on reported SN and L.E.:

 

1/27-8: Taunton 20.8" SN & 1.61" L.E. for a ratio of 13:1

             BOX       22.3" SN & 0.96" L.E. for a ratio of 23:1

 

2/2-3:   Taunton 11.2" SN & 1.16" L.E. for a ratio of 10:1

            BOX        16.2" SN & 0.78" L.E. for a ratio of 21:1

 

2/8-10  Taunton 14.0" SN & 1.14" L.E. for a ratio of 12:1

            BOX        22.9" SN & 1.30" L.E. for a ratio of 18:1

 

2/14-6  Taunton 14.1" SN & 0.69" L.E. for a ratio of 20:1

            BOX        16.2" SN & 0.62" L.E. for a ratio of 26:1

 

 So, if I'm understanding you correctly, the lower implied ratios at Taunton are much more reflective of reality than those for BOX.

 

Since we captured the snow in the precip can and manually melted at KBOX, I feel that this was more representative than trusting the melted precip reports from KTAN.  Will mentioned how unrrepresentative the melted precip reports are from ASOS in a previous post. 

 

BTW, your IDs for each storm are confusing.  Taunton 4NW is also known as KBOX, while Taunton Airport is known as KTAN.  I would guess that the way you identified them in your post was as they appeared in NOWData.  Oh well...

 

--Turtle (on work travel)

[GaWx]

Since we captured the snow in the precip can and manually melted at KBOX, I feel that this was more representative than trusting the melted precip reports from KTAN.  Will mentioned how unrrepresentative the melted precip reports are from ASOS in a previous post. 

 

BTW, your IDs for each storm are confusing.  Taunton 4NW is also known as KBOX, while Taunton Airport is known as KTAN.  I would guess that the way you identified them in your post was as they appeared in NOWData.  Oh well...

 

--Turtle (on work travel)

 

Turtle,

 I am a bit confused. The "Taunton" SN & L.E. both came from Taunton 4 NW while the BOX SN & L.E. both came from picking Boston from here:

 

 http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box

[CoastalWx]

Turtle,

 I am a bit confused. The "Taunton" SN & L.E. both came from Taunton 4 NW while the BOX SN & L.E. both came from picking Boston from here:

 

 http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box

 

KTAN is the ASOS from the airport KTAN which is in Taunton, but on the SE part of the city. KBOX is also in Taunton, but NW of center Taunton, hence why it says 4 NW Taunton. It looked like you picked Boston by accident?

[Turtle]

Turtle,

 I am a bit confused. The "Taunton" SN & L.E. both came from Taunton 4 NW while the BOX SN & L.E. both came from picking Boston from here:

 

 http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box

 

KTAN is the ASOS from the airport KTAN which is in Taunton, but on the SE part of the city. KBOX is also in Taunton, but NW of center Taunton, hence why it says 4 NW Taunton. It looked like you picked Boston by accident?

 

Oh, I was confused, too.  I didn't realize that BOX was actually KBOS (Logan).  Well then, Taunton 4 NW is about 30 miles south of KBOS at Logan airport.  KTAN, Taunton airport is about 8 miles SE of our office (KBOX, or Taunton 4 NW).  

 

Unfortunately, there is no snow record for KTAN since it's only an automated ASOS site.  AFAIK, there is no augmentation of the ASOS at that airport at all.  We can compare the snow and SWE at KPVD, which is about 35 miles SW of KBOX.  We DO get snow reports from KPVD.  Plus, they also augment the rainfall/water equivalent into ASOS, rather than relying on ASOS.  The observations are augmented from 6 AM until Midnight, but they do have a rain gauge and update it for the 7 AM update (same for the snow).  SO, there should be a better agreement, one would think.

 

For KPVD:

 

1/27-28     19.1" SN and 1.08" L.E.  for ratio of  17.7:1 

 

2/2-3           7.9" SN and 0.87" L.E.  for ratio of    9.1:1

 

2/7-9           7.4" SN and 0.51" L.E.  for ratio of  14.5:1

 

2/14-15       8.2" SN and 0.55" L.E.  for ratio of  14.9:1

 

You will see a few differences in the dates, due to a Mid-Mid reading for KPVD and 7 AM-7 AM reading at KBOX, but it's pretty close.

 

Why such a difference for the SWE/ratio for the Valentine's Weekend blizzard?  Reason: MUCH colder at KBOX than KPVD...

 

Temps:   

 

2/14       KPVD   High  30   Low  -1

              KBOX   High  19   Low  -9

 

2/15       KPVD   High  22   Low  -1

              KBOX   High  26   Low  -8

 

Oh, one more thing...KTAN is in a hole, a valley in a swamp near the Massasoit State Forest.  To get gusts AOA 30 KT is tough for them, so they radiate quite readily.  So, we do see low temps as much as 6 degrees lower than at KBOX.  The hub and I live about 2 miles W of KTAN.  We do have a thermometer, but it's against our condo building (not allowed to have equipment set away from the building).  Even with that, we've seen some similarities to KTAN's readings, but differences too.  

 

WOW, ain't microclimates grand?!??!

 

--Turtle