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Grade the Winter of 2014-2015

SR Airglow

By SR Airglow,
in New England

  

52 members have voted

  1. 1. What grade would you give the winter of 2014-2015?


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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah that's true. Get a few +20 days in there from random cutters and it will skew the mean.

 

I also can't think of a physical reason why there would be a near spike around Christmas. I'm sure other random times in winter have unexplained spikes too.

 

 

Same phenomenon on why some days have really vulnerable record lows or highs and other days have like 5 or 6 record low temps lower than a day near it.

 

With so many arbitrary days or short periods to choose from...one day or set of days is going to get luckier than others when ti comes to snowfall, or low temps, or cutters, or whatever. Stretch the sample out to like 500 years and I'd bet it really smooths out.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I disagree...over the course of so many arbitrary 3-5 day periods, you are bound to have a few statistical outliers that are not a product of physical basis...but just random variance.

 

You get 6 or 8 really epic mild cutters in a 100 year period, that it going to start skewing the mean pretty good. So over the course of all those days, you are bound to have one small window that just happened to see more of them than other days.

 

 

I suppose if there was a legit physical explanation for it, then you could explain it that way, but I have yet to see one argued. The statistical variance/noise argument is as good as any at the moment.

 

Interesting... I was thinking maybe like its a favorable period of relaxation right near the lowest sun angle time of year or something, lol.  Yeah I dunno, I couldn't explain any of it without pulling things out of my arse.

 

Here was the graphic.  Its just fascinating because its a 120 year data set and its the most formidable blip in December's temperature records.  But yeah, then it drops quite sharply a couple days later (also probably random), so must just be randomly screwing us around Christmas time, lol.

 

 

10421530_826648684058871_884912484371877

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

It could be just some noise.  Like, why the rise from 12/6-12/8 and then from the 12-14th etc? Temps took a sharp did after the 15th so maybe a correction for that too. It is interesting, but I can't think of any reason why there would be some sort of relaxation. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

It could be just some noise.  Like, why the rise from 12/6-12/8 and then from the 12-14th etc? Temps took a sharp did after the 15th so maybe a correction for that too. It is interesting, but I can't think of any reason why there would be some sort of relaxation. 

 

Yeah, agree after looking at it.  But that rise around Xmas is definitely the one that stands out that month.  Its not like a half a degree or degree...its a full 2F above the smoothed mean.

 

Anyway, just something to monitor in future Christmas periods, haha.  Hopefully like Will said we can rattle off like 5 seasons without a Grinch storm.  Grinch storm seems to happen with such frequency that we now almost plan for it at the ski resort, lol.  Always joking that the poor folks that ski on Christmas vacation have had success maybe one year out of the last 5.  December 2012 was a big second half of the month up here, and had two legit snowstorms during Xmas week.  Aside from that, pretty much since I've been here the Christmas Week has been a massive struggle due to the weather.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah, agree after looking at it.  But that rise around Xmas is definitely the one that stands out that month.  Its not like a half a degree or degree...its a full 2F above the smoothed mean.

 

Anyway, just something to monitor in future Christmas periods, haha.  Hopefully like Will said we can rattle off like 5 seasons without a Grinch storm.  Grinch storm seems to happen with such frequency that we now almost plan for it at the ski resort, lol.  Always joking that the poor folks that ski on Christmas vacation have had success maybe one year out of the last 5.  December 2012 was a big second half of the month up here, and had two legit snowstorms during Xmas week.  Aside from that, pretty much since I've been here the Christmas Week has been a massive struggle due to the weather.

 

 

The last good Christmas week I can remember that includes the couple of days after Christmas is probably 2010....then before that I'd say 2002.  

 

2009 was OK but we had a pretty good cutter on 12/27.

 

2005 was actually pretty good until Christmas night when it rained. 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2013, and this past year all had cutters and/or excessive warmth. 2012 was OK here...had the cutter on 12/21 but then managed some snow on Christmas morning. About an inch or so. The period leading up to Christmas was pretty putrid though. Right after Christmas was great though with good storms on 12/26-27 and 12/29.

 

I go back to the previous 12-15 years and remember many more good Christmas weeks. 1989, 1991, 1995, 1997 and 2000.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The last good Christmas week I can remember that includes the couple of days after Christmas is probably 2010....then before that I'd say 2002.  

 

2009 was OK but we had a pretty good cutter on 12/27.

 

2005 was actually pretty good until Christmas night when it rained. 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2013, and this past year all had cutters and/or excessive warmth. 2012 was OK here...had the cutter on 12/21 but then managed some snow on Christmas morning. About an inch or so. The period leading up to Christmas was pretty putrid though. Right after Christmas was great though with good storms on 12/26-27 and 12/29.

 

I go back to the previous 12-15 years and remember many more good Christmas weeks. 1989, 1991, 1995, 1997 and 2000.

 

I know pike north got screwed, but 12/24/98 was pretty cool. Locally, probably the best near...or just prior to Christmas event in years.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Stafford I could have sworn also had 32-34 in that storm

Someone fire up the pns

 

Staffordville 31.4". Stafford Spring 26.1"  I see 30.5" for Tolland. Again, we all know the variances...just stating what the PNS has.

 

Coventry was 32.4, but they were closer to that band.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

Staffordville 31.4". Stafford Spring 26.1" I see 30.5" for Tolland. Again, we all know the variances...just stating what the PNS has.

Coventry was 32.4, but they were closer to that band.

Glastonbury 33.5, Manchester 32. Probably some variances between 6 hour measurements and storm total measurements.
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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

The power of the internet. He said 34-35. Tickling down to 32-33.

However...I even recall some sleet mixing in at one point. So not only could that have kept my total down a bit, but it would have exaggerated the compaction. I don't recall thinking how fluffy it was either. So if I had 27" otg, 33 or 34 with 6 hour measurements seems reasonable at the top of the mountain.

Of course, if you were doing 6 hour measurements on a snow board, then why would you not have a precise total...

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

I disagree...over the course of so many arbitrary 3-5 day periods, you are bound to have a few statistical outliers that are not a product of physical basis...but just random variance.

 

You get 6 or 8 really epic mild cutters in a 100 year period, that it going to start skewing the mean pretty good. So over the course of all those days, you are bound to have one small window that just happened to see more of them than other days.

 

 

I suppose if there was a legit physical explanation for it, then you could explain it that way, but I have yet to see one argued. The statistical variance/noise argument is as good as any at the moment.

 

I don't have access to my Farmington records at the moment, but after 123 years they show a short bump during the last week of Jan before sliding back down a bit in early Feb.  It's quite distinct for the day-by-day averages, but it's sufficiently robust to show up in my 15-day "regression", in which the subject day is averaged with the 7 days before and after.  Since that represents the averages of over 1800 records rather than the 123, I think it significant, if only as a curiosity.

 

My much shorter New Sharon records (started during May 1998) do not show this "January thaw" effect.  They do, however, show a slight pre-Christmas bump (which is not evident in Farmington's LT numbers.)  That is likely the result of the recent Grinch events rather than any "real" feature.

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CoolMike

CoolMike

Posted
Posted

A- for me.  I was out of town for a few of the big storms and an A+ winter should only snow when I am around.

 

Less than average snow year in North and Central VT also deducts a few points.

 

Hey - its my grade and I get to decide what this winter loses points for.   :pimp:

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