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Upstate NY/North Country and Canadien/VT Borders Spring 2015


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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN STEUBEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

WEST CENTRAL SCHUYLER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 506 PM EDT...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER

HOWARD...OR 9 MILES EAST OF HORNELL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...CONFIRMED TORNADO.

 

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN STEUBEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

WEST CENTRAL SCHUYLER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 506 PM EDT...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER

HOWARD...OR 9 MILES EAST OF HORNELL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...CONFIRMED TORNADO.

 

 

 

Wow, definitely caught me by surprise. Looks like it touchdown in Allegheny county and then lifted and reappeared in Steuben and Schuyler county. Here is the Tornado report from SPC for Allegheny county.

 

DAMAGE ALONG I-86 AND SURROUNDING AREA WITH MANY TREES DOWN. TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD. (BUF)

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A real GOM feel to the air today. With a low 70s DP this may not feel like New Orleans or Houston, but it certainly approaches Memphis or Nashville. Very glad the house we just bought has central A/C.

 

It feels great! Played in a beach volleyball tournament all day, made it to semis at sunset beach. The water is still really cold, even along the shore. We need to heat that baby up! Today is why summer is my favorite season. I wish it lasted 1-2 months longer. There was some crazy fog along the lakeshore in the morning that didn't clear until after noon.

 

11223813_947824431906893_389818130667964

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All sub forums get quite when the weather turns tranquil....and our current sub forum has a couple dozen posters vs. a couple hundred or so in the major metro areas....we shouldn't increase our "area" just to have more discourse about the potential for a cumulus cloud to pop, lol!

I'd rather have a campaign to recruit other enthusiasts that reside in our area to become active participants....but, nevertheless, Partly Sunny with a chance of showers isn't going to labor the servers ever!!! :)

A bit late to the discussion here, but I agree with this post entirely. 

 

I'll probably try to get a few met students from Oswego to join in the fall but I like the quiet atmosphere around here

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Just waiting for the lake to destroy those storms.

codnexlab.NEXRAD.BUF.N0Q.20150719.2207.0

Totally crapped out.

Anyone notice the lake effect streamers off Ontario during that cool down last week? On my unofficial calendar that made July 15th the start of lake effect season. Too bad it'll take another six to eight weeks to get sufficiently consistently steep lapse rates to support convection.

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Totally crapped out.

Anyone notice the lake effect streamers off Ontario during that cool down last week? On my unofficial calendar that made July 15th the start of lake effect season. Too bad it'll take another six to eight weeks to get sufficiently consistently steep lapse rates to support convection.

 

I'll take really warm conditions to heat the lake up. Don't want Lake effect season to start to early.

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I'm with you - 69F on July 19 isn't good enough. Not that far below normal, but we will need to get up at least to 72-73F and stay there through Labor Day to get the season set up right.

 

I'll take warmer than average conditions right up until November. Went the beach today and the water was actually warmer than the air with that breeze today. Some pretty big waves out there as well.

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Posted on Tom Niziols Facebook. Thought it was an awesome pic.

 

Wow, what a vantage point to see the roll cloud out ahead of thunderstorm activity crossing lake Michigan yesterday, thanks for the photo Derek Hood shared with The Weather Channel!! If you want to learn more about roll and shelf clouds, check out this great Weather Channel article by Jon Erdman. http://wxch.nl/1MmruJM

 

1457705_790083811104978_1655024413155890

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After the last two, count me in. It's virtually locked in, but a warm winter doesn't necessarily mean low snowfall. However, the two analogs for this coming winter had very low snow amount totals at KBUF.

The chances of below normal are greater than 50 percent for sure. We will have to see if we can at least maintain that warm pool in the north pac in the fall. It's the only thing that will likely save this area from frequent pacific air intrusions.

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Who is ready for a warm winter?

 

Until I see a change in the overall pattern from ridge west/trof east, I'll be doubtful of a warmer than average winter.  It seems like we've been stuck in this overall pattern going on 2 years now.  Ridges in our area have been transient, quickly replaced by troffing over the GL's.  Just look at the last week - we get a nice summertime ridge for a few days, then the Hudson Bay vortex takes over and we're looking at cool northwest flow all week coming up.  I know El Nino climo tells us to expect mild winter, but I'm in see it to believe it mode.  

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The chances of below normal are greater than 50 percent for sure. We will have to see if we can at least maintain that warm pool in the north pac in the fall. It's the only thing that will likely save this area from frequent pacific air intrusions.

 

At approximately what time of the year we will be able to determine if we can maintain the warm pool in the north Pac? September/October timeframe?

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Until I see a change in the overall pattern from ridge west/trof east, I'll be doubtful of a warmer than average winter.  It seems like we've been stuck in this overall pattern going on 2 years now.  Ridges in our area have been transient, quickly replaced by troffing over the GL's.  Just look at the last week - we get a nice summertime ridge for a few days, then the Hudson Bay vortex takes over and we're looking at cool northwest flow all week coming up.  I know El Nino climo tells us to expect mild winter, but I'm in see it to believe it mode.  

 

I don't know man...The last two winters were historically cold. Usually these come and go in 2-3 year increments. 77-79 was very cold in Buffalo. 2011-2013 was very warm with very little snow in Buffalo. With a possible record El Nino going in affect I expect a warmer winter with less than average snowfall. That's the best call at this moment.

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