AvantHiatus Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Bump Satellite pictures indicate that thunderstorm activity associatedwith a low pressure area that recently moved off of the west coastof Africa is becoming better organized, and a tropical depressioncould be forming. If this development trend continues, advisorieswould likely be initiated tonight or Sunday. This system isexpected to move northwest toward the Cape Verde Islands at 10 to15 mph, and interests in those islands should closely monitor theprogress of this disturbance.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Unless it's a cat 5 in the Caribbean, count me crass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Now declared a tropical depression, with Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches up for the Cape Verde Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Heh. Even the most dullard of seasons can somehow boast an amazing accomplishment. Well ... perhaps shy of amazing, but impressive nonetheless. Apparently now this Atlantic hurricane season has captured a historical precedent: "....This makes Fred only the fourth Atlantic tropical storm to form east of 19W longitude in NHC's database..." That's a pretty good accomplishment for a 150 whatever years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siker Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Hurricane warning up for Cape Verde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Hurricane warning up for Cape Verde. That doesn't happen often. It appears they will catch the storm on the up side too strength wise. I hope they are prepared there. Probably lots of vacationers still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Fred looks spectacular on satellite, with multiple curved bands and nearly unabated structure. It's still just a TS... SSTs are 27 and 28C so borderline+, but with apparent superior deep layer envelopment of mechanics, the whole of thing may indeed deepen fast. Can't say RI, but there is certainly time for Fred to get to H strength as it near the Verde islands. After that, it should bend back west (despite the GFDL) with the expected rebuilding of subtropical ridge, WNW of the Canaries; if so doing that at a rather polarward position relative to climate for TC in the far eastern Atlantic. Most guidance I have have been trending toward more and more left turn prior to early recurvature. I wouldn't suggest that past model performance pertains to Fred ...nonetheless, we've recently eaten some reality about models that can't wait to gobble TC northward - the GFDL doesn't seem to acknowledge any directive ridge. Having said that ... as notable via precipitable water product there is a significant amount of dry air near the Verde archipelago and then immediately the SAL band is prevalent, so a headlong motion into these region may also provide an avenue for weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I was just wondering what's the criteria that a particular TC must meet to merit the creation of its own storm-specific thread? Since it appears highly likely that Fred will impact portions of the Cape Verde islands with HF conditions...I couldn't help but to think that that might qualify as a basis for its own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Fred is now a 75kt Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I feel like this board is missing a whole bunch of members that use to post a ton of discussion and analysis on the tropics and the storms. Why is it so quite this year? Is it just the lack of exciting storms or is there a new means of communication that I am not privy too? I miss all the crazy discussion, where do I go to find it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I feel like this board is missing a whole bunch of members that use to post a ton of discussion and analysis on the tropics and the storms. Why is it so quite this year? Is it just the lack of exciting storms or is there a new means of communication that I am not privy too? I miss all the crazy discussion, where do I go to find it? There are various communities more strongly dedicated to tropical weather. I won't post them here but google is your friend. Sometimes I wonder if this is a cold-season weather board or something much worse. Most of the discussion occurs in the sub-forums. The tropics thread in the NYC/SNE forum was 7 pages long just for Erika alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I feel like this board is missing a whole bunch of members that use to post a ton of discussion and analysis on the tropics and the storms. Why is it so quite this year? Is it just the lack of exciting storms or is there a new means of communication that I am not privy too? I miss all the crazy discussion, where do I go to find it? A big part of it is the lack of interesting systems in the Atlantic Basin. We really haven't had a significant threat to the US mainland since Sandy, and from a tropical snobs viewpoint, Sandy fits in a separate category all together. If things heat up you will see more participation on the boards again. A hurricane off the African coast that will dissipate in 5 days is not going to garner the same interest as a hurricane in the Gulf. But there was definitely a noticeable uptick in action when Danny and then Erika showed promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Should something be able to get going North of the islands the pattern is definitely favorable for East coast landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I feel like this board is missing a whole bunch of members that use to post a ton of discussion and analysis on the tropics and the storms. Why is it so quite this year? Is it just the lack of exciting storms or is there a new means of communication that I am not privy too? I miss all the crazy discussion, where do I go to find it? I think we are missing a legit moderation system. Slashdot as an example I think is done pretty well. We have super informative and analytical posts side by side with downright tripe/argumentative/worthless posts. People eventually just give up. A simple plus minus rating system for proven moderators and an ability to filter based on level would be great I think. It may just be the lackluster season though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 The GEFS are showing a relaxation of the shear across most of the Atlantic Basin just in time for peak season. As long as systems can stay away from the Central and Western Caribbean things should be more favorable. Of course drier than average air does continue to be a problem, but that's something that can be overcome with a very favorable upper level environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 A big part of it is the lack of interesting systems in the Atlantic Basin. We really haven't had a significant threat to the US mainland since Sandy, and from a tropical snobs viewpoint, Sandy fits in a separate category all together. If things heat up you will see more participation on the boards again. A hurricane off the African coast that will dissipate in 5 days is not going to garner the same interest as a hurricane in the Gulf. But there was definitely a noticeable uptick in action when Danny and then Erika showed promise. I suppose people have just been beat down by these last few slow season. I can remember a time when every possible thing was over analyzed and banters about, I guess that grew tired for some. Hoping for some interesting systems soon so I can read all the discussion. I've always enjoyed what the members of the board bring to the table, even though, for the most part, I just lurk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 I feel like this board is missing a whole bunch of members that use to post a ton of discussion and analysis on the tropics and the storms. Why is it so quite this year? Is it just the lack of exciting storms or is there a new means of communication that I am not privy too? I miss all the crazy discussion, where do I go to find it? It does take a lot of effort to cogently put together all of the data for posts, and then to carry on discussions! I think that everyone here is still quite dedicated but do not want to put lots of energy and time into systems unless it feels like a good use of their time. Here is a long thread about Fred on the storm 2k message board! http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117512&sid=69d79eb2cd1b2dee22311f9424d98320&start=200 I sometimes look there over the years and it is a great complement to this board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 The ECMWF and to a lesser extent the GFS show some development with the next wave coming off of Africa. Nothing exciting but the Euro solution would probably use the "G" name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 It does take a lot of effort to cogently put together all of the data for posts, and then to carry on discussions! I think that everyone here is still quite dedicated but do not want to put lots of energy and time into systems unless it feels like a good use of their time. Here is a long thread about Fred on the storm 2k message board! http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117512&sid=69d79eb2cd1b2dee22311f9424d98320&start=200 I sometimes look there over the years and it is a great complement to this board! I'd sort of been wondering about a (relative) lack of activity on the Erika thread, myself. Not sure if it's just tropical, seemed to see less activity on some of the midwest severe wx threads over the summer. Are people just going to social media. I left S2K long ago due to the absurd level of over-moderation. That a legal disclaimer is needed on top of every single post that might be construed as a forecast is beyond hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Tropics look pretty boring, a couple short lived Cape Verde storms possible. El Nino is pretty much winning the battle as expected. still doing better than 2013 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Tropics look pretty boring, a couple short lived Cape Verde storms possible. El Nino is pretty much winning the battle as expected. still doing better than 2013 though. But the reasons attributed to El Nino have been only vaguely evidenced throughout the season; and that makes a goodly deal of sense considering this warm ENSO's been maturing during the weak NH gradient time of the year; Summer. As the autumn ages, the gradients everywhere will steepen, then we'll see if shear truly rooted in thermal sourced warm Pacific overtakes the subtropical basin. It may not be El Nino doing this - There was a dearth of CV wave strengths through the first half of August combined with poorly time atmospheric Kelvin wave progressions that caused too much stability in the Americas during mid summer. Those factors moved off and immediately, activity ensued, but the issues with why they are not long tracked, eye-candied Cat 4 .. 5 flirtations ... it may be more coincident with Nino, because the tendency to limit subtropical ridge strength has been going on since long before this warm ENSO gained traction, and it appears that factor is more culpable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Any thoughts on Invest 91? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Just designated a depression this morning ...last hour actually. Right now it doesn't carry a very impressive signature in the modeling over the next several days. Some depictions actually don't really even acknowledge much at all, with only a vague sort of bulge in the monsoonal trough rolling west between the 15th and 20th parallels. Other runs, like the HWRF/GFDL ... (and I have not seen the other strictly tropical guidance types..) give a modest nod to its existence by closing off a contour or two. The Basin as a whole appears to be getting increasingly more hostile though. Hard to say if this is the big NINO correlation exerting, or if this is just because we've been in a weak subtropical ridge phase now lasting a couple of years (actually). Either way, there is now more shear than was present during Dan's era. Before that happens...48 to maybe 60 hours of lesser inhibition to strengthening, and then a would be Grace, if modeling depictions hold, would begin to experience shear. Not sure what the other dudes and dudettes' thoughts are, but there's not much more to comment there after. Although... sans the whack-job looking extended Euro from 00z, the blend of the guidance seem to bring back the semi-permanent eastern N/A trough associated with the westerlies; should that transpire, the r-wave argument would tend to strengthen the subtropical ridging eastward over the Atlantic ..west of the 40th, and so if "Grace" survived, ...la-la fun-range speculation might have her amid a better environment at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Interestingly .. the 12z GFDL run now takes a would-be Grace well into hurricane status and seems to side toward maintaining structure/organization on a general west to west-northwest steady trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 Lock it up for another shrederolla. Grace is the best name of 2015 so I remain optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 12z Euro has a Slopgyre that makes landfall in Texas day 8 and appears to deepen post landfall. Probably a hiccup, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 12z Euro has a Slopgyre that makes landfall in Texas day 8 and appears to deepen post landfall. Probably a hiccup, but something to watch.Globals have been hinting at BOC development for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 Any chance of tropical development in the eastern Gulf? I notice that there is some organization and a northerly wind of 19 knots at the buoy to the west of the centre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Any chance of tropical development in the eastern Gulf? I notice that there is some organization and a northerly wind of 19 knots at the buoy to the west of the centre. Anyone on this? Looking a tad interesting this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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