Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Are you still doing those videos? I'm obviously not holding my breath for anything but there is a window for it to do something that isn't lame. First thing I thought of was how hostile is the Caribbean and if it goes north of the islands can it do the elusive WNW movement while directly north of them. Its got a good initial setup which has been uncommon recently and looks great today. Yes, as a matter of fact I've been prepping video editing software up to date to prepare for the upcoming wrath of Danny. As far as the TUTT goes, reminds me a GREAT deal of Hurricane Dean as it approached an extremely unfavorable TUTT which backed off as then-100 mph Dean approached the islands. https://youtu.be/mBw4BB0EcnY?list=PL31AD8EF507BFCFFB&t=341 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 42kt sustained at a buoy in the northern semicircle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 GFS carries what's left of Danny north of Cuba by day 10...would be interesting if it stayed an organized system. OHC is extremely high in that region... Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 00z ships was initialized with an intensity of 45kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Even if Danny were to still be a solvent tropical cyclone in the Caribbean, Hispaniola is right in the path of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Even if Danny were to still be a solvent tropical cyclone in the Caribbean, Hispaniola is right in the path of the storm. With the exception of David in '79, usually they find a way back. See: Georges 1998, Gustav 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 With the exception of David in '79, usually they find a way back. See: Georges 1998, Gustav 2008 Not to mention there is plenty of time for the track to move around, either way the islands look to have something to worry about for sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 New thread on TS Danny: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46744-tropical-storm-danny/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Even if Danny were to still be a solvent tropical cyclone in the Caribbean, Hispaniola is right in the path of the storm. Shrediola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 If it can intensify significantly it will make its own environment. The key is what happens before the shear. It has essentialy nornal sst before that. Which should be more then enough for at least a mid level Caine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Even if Danny becomes a complete flop...the ECMWF still has to more CV systems (that both dissipate by the end of the run lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Even if Danny becomes a complete flop...the ECMWF still has to more CV systems (that both dissipate by the end of the run lol) At least there's finally some action in the pipeline. A shower within a long term drought better than no rain at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 When was the last time a major hurricane approached the Lesser Antilles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 When was the last time a major hurricane approached the Lesser Antilles?Hurricane Earl became a major hurricane as it brushed the Leeward Islands (northern Lesser Antilles) in 2010. If that counts, it's the last one I remember.Before that it might have been Hurricane Ivan in 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Euro with a big cane day 5 North of Peurto Rico. Bermuda bruiser and then stalling with ridge building in overhead. A bit faster moving out that trough and the East coast could be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 I'm worried that Danny's future could hold Major Hurricane Intensity and threatening the Bahamas, then FL or the SE US coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Danny starting to fight back now, large convective burst happening over his center currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 I'm worried that Danny's future could hold Major Hurricane Intensity and threatening the Bahamas, then FL or the SE US coastline. I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 I'm not. That would be Invest 98L, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Good morning Invest 98L: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Given that 98L is embedded in a strong, low-level, easterly trade surge, it will be hard pressed to develop until the gradient relaxes near the Lesser Antilles in about four days. A young system simply can't consolidate when it's moving at 15-20 kt. Additionally, the easterlies are bringing a very stable air mass to the north of 98L that will persist over the next several days. The operational ECMWF, by showing some development before then, differs sharply from its ensembles, most of which show little or no development or even weakening. By the time 98L reaches the islands, moreover, it will running into the persistent TUTT axis that has bedeviled many systems this season (and indeed in most of the past four seasons). I have strong doubts that 98L will survive the hostile conditions that it is facing, which are worse than those that Danny faced, as Danny at least did not have to deal with strong easterlies undercutting its vertical stacking, allowing it to become a major hurricane before succumbing to the TUTT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 It depends on which models you are looking at to back your theory. Most models are in disagreement on what happens to 98L, some develop it to a hurricane, some don't. It all depends on when that TUTT axis moves out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Not to mention there is plenty of time for the track to move around, either way the islands look to have something to worry about for sure.... Not so much after all.. A 40MPH TS. I'm worried that Danny's future could hold Major Hurricane Intensity and threatening the Bahamas, then FL or the SE US coastline. You had to of been trolling when you wrote this last night, right? He wasn't even a hurricane when you made this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Already a 35 knot system... AL, 98, 2015082412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 436W, 35, 1006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 I'm surprised that they didn't initiate advisories on 98L at 11AM. They went 90% chance of development but you can already see that it has a well defined circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Looking at that ASCAT and visual satellite, the LLC is appears exposed on the NW side of nearest convection. Probably wouldn't take much for the initation of advisories as a named storm once convection becomes a little more organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 From a chasing standpoint, nothing is more frustrating is seeing the ECMWF and its ensembles shift westward, showing ridging strong enough to drive 98L into FL, and then drop down a nice TUTT that moves in tandem with 98L, shearing it apart into an open wave that tracks into FL. If you're not dealing with a persistent, fishy East Coast trough, then you're dealing with shear. Grrr. I'm still sticking to my earlier contention that this system won't survive beyond day three, even if it does manage to become a depression or weak storm over the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Impressive....98L already up to 40 knots/1003mb AL, 98, 2015082418, , BEST, 0, 145N, 452W, 40, 1003 HWRF and GFDL blow this up later on, with the 18z HWRF near 135 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Decent, potentially sustained flareup on convection across the NW quadrant of Invest 98L this afternoon. Wouldn't be surprised if we see TD #5 at the 5:00 pm advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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