Superstorm93 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 UW-CIMSS Tropical Cyclone Genesis probs are now up to 95 and 99 percent for 96L HWRF also develops it into a hurricane in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 If we can get 5 Hurricanes and 1 major this year I'll call it a win. Models suggest an active Cape Verde period coming with several possible tropical storms. Hopefully at least one of them can make it to a hurricane without getting shredded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 i have forgotten what it is like tracking a CV cane. i would take just about anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Hallelujah! A CV system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 While there have been some hopes with previous Cape Verde Gyre type low this season, Invest 96L has the best chance at becoming formidable and a threat to the NE Lesser Antilles. Because I expect strong development out of this system, I expect it to recurve making it to a landfall hitting the NE lesser Antilles, but recurving between Bermuda and North Carolina. High is in the Azores which is why I anticipate a recurve and not to hit the US coastline. Could be our first hurricane and Major hurricane as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 2010 was really the last great Cape Verde season. It is hard to even imagine seasons like 2003 and 2004 with Fabian and Isabel and Frances and Ivan.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Looks like it's hitting some dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Dry air is not a current issue with 96L its getting its act together right now, percentages are now up to 90% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Looking pretty darn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Looking pretty darn good Convection is waning but not a big issue, it should wax and wane with the diurnal cycles. What's most important is that you can see the moisture field expanding around 96L. If it's going to ward off the dry air, having a nice moist pouch surrounding it will be key. EDIT: Looks a little bit like early Dorian. Hopefully it doesn't meet the same fate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 NHC initiating advisories on TD 4 at 11AM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Stewart seems to think 96L will remain in a favorable enough environment to reach hurricane status in three days. Per the discussion, a weakness allows the system to gain some latitude, albeit slowly, but he is forecasting a ridge to build in south of Bermuda and turn the system on a more westward track in three days as well. The GFS and ECMWF both show this ridging, however, the system is kept much weaker and likely more influenced by the stronger surface flow beneath the ridge. I suspect a blend would bring a stronger hurricane through the northern Leewards and eventually somewhere north of the Greater Antilles next week. Regardless of future landfall prospects, Danny looks to be our first legitimate long tracker Cape Verde system in a good while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Models have been trending south, which appears likely due to the strong ridge building north of the cyclone. The bad news for TD 4 is that this tracks it through the El Niño cyclone killer zone, aka 'the Caribbean' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Location and timing, of course. If the system is kept weaker due to shear, it probably treks further south with the ridge and struggles into the central Caribbean. Though shear hasn't been as formidable in the eastern Caribbean the past week, that could be temporary and could just as likely increase again to what has been observed the past few months. Shear associated with the weakness to the north of the 96L should weaken as the weakness lifts out. If the system does manage to stay in a relatively low sheared environment by early next week, a stronger storm's interaction with the ridge might allow it to avoid the killzone. It will be interesting to watch play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Reminds me a little bit of Betsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 The 12z GGEM which has never met a tropical system that it didn't like develops 96L into a formidable hurricane with a track through the Central lesser Antilles in six days. Thereafter the system eventually impacts Puerto Rico and then Hispaniola where it dies a slow death. The 12z GFS keeps the system much weaker but agrees on a very similar track and end. The GFS then continues to show the system behind it becoming the dominant storm and eventually becoming a very powerful hurricane approaching the islands at the start of September. Of course fantasy, but we haven't even had good model porn up until a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 TD4 is looking very good this afternoon. Should probably become Danny later this evening. I see no obvious reasons that it shouldn't become a hurricane down the road, but if it enters the Caribbean with the record high shear, then it should meet a quick death. Also have to watch the waves behind 04L for development now that the path has been cleared. Interesting times ahead Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 A strong storm will impact the environment around it. If Danny is able to reach major before the shear zone it has a chance to battle it. Unfortunitly that isn't likely. 97 did have one long track Cape Verde major. So there is some hope. I like the idea of the storm behind Danny being the real show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 The last few frames of the visible satellite loop are showing a clear organizing trend in that: 1.) Thunderstorms are beginning to coalesce on all quadrants of the center. 2.) Outflow is more defined and established on not only the NE quadrant, but some of the NW quadrant as well. I would not be surprised if there is another flare up of convection this evening which edges TD #4 to become TS Danny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 I know the history of the Eastern Caribbean as the "death zone" but think of all the storms we've seen intensify in it. Charley, Ivan, Dennis, Dean, Gustav, ect ect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 The first big cluster of plots for TD #4...decent consensus thus far for this system to remain below the 22° Latitude (see below). Some interaction with the Windward Islands seems plausible at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 TD 4 should become Danny with the 5 p.m. update. Products starting to refer to the system as a TS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 4.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%)Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%)Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 It's been a while since I've seen model guidance so inconsistent. The GFS, which previously showed Danny as a hurricane tracking toward the islands over a week ago, now maintains the cyclone for a few days before degenerating it. The ECMWF, which depicted a hurricane yesterday, now shows a steady state cyclone that degenerates after entering the Caribbean. The GFDL, which previously was enthused with the system, now shows a Category 2 hurricane by 96 hours. The only consistent models are the HWRF, SHIPS, and LGEM which all converge on a Category 2 hurricane by the end of the 5-day window. The only thing for sure is that Danny is a healthy system, with expanding outflow, great spiral banding, and developing convection over the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 I know the history of the Eastern Caribbean as the "death zone" but think of all the storms we've seen intensify in it. Charley, Ivan, Dennis, Dean, Gustav, ect ect. Are you still doing those videos? I'm obviously not holding my breath for anything but there is a window for it to do something that isn't lame. First thing I thought of was how hostile is the Caribbean and if it goes north of the islands can it do the elusive WNW movement while directly north of them. Its got a good initial setup which has been uncommon recently and looks great today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 ECMWF ran Danny into a wall before it even had a chance to enter the Caribbean. Even the more poleward models are weakening this system once it encounters the TUTT cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 ECMWF Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 What are the odds of the TUTT splitting and backing away from Danny as it nears the NE Caribbean in five days and just beyond? Models seem pretty unanimous in that the TUTT will be a problem by that time, so what evolution in the overall pattern could make that change? Windspeed wrote: Location and timing, of course. If the system is kept weaker due to shear, it probably treks further south with the ridge and struggles into the central Caribbean. Though shear hasn't been as formidable in the eastern Caribbean the past week, that could be temporary and could just as likely increase again to what has been observed the past few months. Shear associated with the weakness to the north of the 96L should weaken as the weakness lifts out. If the system does manage to stay in a relatively low sheared environment by early next week, a stronger storm's interaction with the ridge might allow it to avoid the killzone. It will be interesting to watch play out. So you expect shear to actually decrease on or after day five as Danny approaches the NE Caribbean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 What are the odds of the TUTT splitting and backing away from Danny as it nears the NE Caribbean in five days and just beyond? Models seem pretty unanimous in that the TUTT will be a problem by that time, so what evolution in the overall pattern could make that change? Windspeed wrote: So you expect shear to actually decrease on or after day five as Danny approaches the NE Caribbean? We need as big and strong of a system as possible. With a big anticyclone overhead. This way the storm will begin to change the enviroment around. Also bigger stronger storms tend to curve more poleward thus staying out of the Caribbean shesr death zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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