hurricaneman Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Invest 93L is born Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 00z Euro has a storm alng the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 In what time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 In what time frame? 240 on the 00z euro. 12z is much weaker and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 ECMWF still has a stalled front developing multiple areas of low pressure sometime next week. Something to keep a weary eye on with nothing else to note going on in the basin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 240 on the 00z euro. 12z is much weaker and OTS. Thank you so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 12z EC is boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 240 on the 00z euro. 12z is much weaker and OTS. Anything showing a chance of homebrew? Looks like a low level swirl out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 There does seem to be something beginning, and not much to move it too soon. this wide view image also shows a cyclone sized but less active low that formed from a TUTT moving over the Carribean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 As we approach peak TW season, it appears that conditions in the TNA region are getting a little less hostile. Modeling shows somewhat favorable upper level conditions in the Central and Eastern Atlantic the next days, and we already have a healthy TW south of the Cape Verde islands. I don't expect near ideal conditions, but at least much improved compared to what he have seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 we already have a healthy TW south of the Cape Verde islands. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?∏=splitE&time= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?∏=splitE&time= That's pretty much climo for this time of the year. Almost all dry air is north of the TW, and since it's underneath a deep layered ridge, there's no mechanism to help ingest that dry air into the circulation. Still status-quo with that TW, but conditions should remain marginally favorable for some development the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Roundy's page certainly shows an active middle of the season despite the El Nino. Most of the storms in that area would not threaten the us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 That's pretty much climo for this time of the year. Almost all dry air is north of the TW, and since it's underneath a deep layered ridge, there's no mechanism to help ingest that dry air into the circulation. Still status-quo with that TW, but conditions should remain marginally favorable for some development the next few days. Thanks for the lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 In spite of the "downgrade" by the latest TWO, the latest visible shows organization of a small low level circulation in the Central Atlantic with increasing convection near the center, and hints of banding in it's west semicircle. This would be a very fragile low in a fragile environment, so development expectations are still rather low. There's another area of interest, in the northern GoM. Even during the strongest Niños, the northern GoM is not as hostile as the deep tropics. Still, organization is almost non existent, other than some persistent thunderstorms. Any development would take it's sweet time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 There's another area of interest, in the northern GoM. Even during the strongest Niños, the northern GoM is not as hostile as the deep tropics. Still, organization is almost non existent, other than some persistent thunderstorms. Any development would take it's sweet time. Yes, there is a spiral just over land at the moment. i will try to find a more specific radar loop image but it is well visible here too. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php this self updating loop should allow the circulation to be tracked for a day or two! http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=TLH&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=23975612&lat=30.42930031&lon=-84.25710297&label=Tallahassee%2C+FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 The circulation is over water now; it is hard to say what would happen but this overall area is in a pocket where cyclones have formed over the past year and of course earlier years, east of an incoming large ULL. (this image will self-update) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 A newer image after more convection..! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 20mph sustained winds with gusts to 35 at ST Pete Whitted Airport. Lowest pressure is about 1012mb. Don't think that will cut it for a TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 maybe something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The southeast TUTT cyclonic flow is now Invest 95L ... see this corresponding tropical forum for some talk about it. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117403&start=80 From that thread, here also is a visible satellite image that will self-update http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GANIMdL7Y3l15.jpg and its source image loop http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=33&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Noticing the long range GFS for several days and today the ECMWF indicating tropical cyclone potential off the coast of Africa late next week. In fact the Global Tropical Hazards Outlook from CPC indicating a moderate chance of above average rainfall over the southern Sahel going into mid August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Noticing the long range GFS for several days and today the ECMWF indicating tropical cyclone potential off the coast of Africa late next week. In fact the Global Tropical Hazards Outlook from CPC indicating a moderate chance of above average rainfall over the southern Sahel going into mid August. Quite a few members of the GEFS (and ECMWF-ens) show a robust wave coming off Africa between 192 and 240 h. If something were to develop, this would be the favored region to do so with lower shear than most of the rest of the MDR or Caribbean. Problem is that anything that does develop would likely develop north of the CV islands (more-so per ECMWF and its ensembles) and recurve quickly into low SSTs and dry mid-latitude air, but at this range things can change and at least it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 In spite of the "downgrade" by the latest TWO, the latest visible shows organization of a small low level circulation in the Central Atlantic with increasing convection near the center, and hints of banding in it's west semicircle. This would be a very fragile low in a fragile environment, so development expectations are still rather low.This pesky low has survived, and shear has diminished to less than 10kts. Also it appears the atmosphere is a bit more unstable, which has the effect of stronger convection around its center at this moment. The low is around 12N 52W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 This pesky low has survived, and shear has diminished to less than 10kts. Also it appears the atmosphere is a bit more unstable, which has the effect of stronger convection around its center at this moment. The low is around 12N 52W. I'm actually surprised that it still has some deep convection right now; but it's only got another 24h at best before it gets sheared to death by the Caribbean shredder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 I'm actually surprised that it still has some deep convection right now; but it's only got another 24h at best before it gets sheared to death by the Caribbean shredder. Yep, the ULL in the W Atlantic is going to move SW and elongate, bringing it's shredding effects with it to the Caribbean. And since the convection is waning, there's almost zero chance now that it can develop into anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 The East Coast may need to watch SW of Bermuda next week as all the models are showing a MLC sitting there and the GFS shows a trough developing with this feature while the 12zEuro shows a possible tropical system developing around 168hrs and while I don't think it will be like this system but it seems to have similar evolution to Bob in 1991 and possibly similar path if it should develop with the steering flow on the Euro and even GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 A robust AEW has become 96L in the far eastern Atlantic. It actually has support from the UKM/ECM to develop over the next five days and at least bring some rain to the drought-stricken Caribbean. TCGEN numbers from CIMSS are actually quite high at 60/90 for the the next 2 and 5 days respectively. The enviorment looks pretty conducive as well with low shear and decent 700-500mb RH numbers. We'll see how it holds up over the next 24-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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