downeastnc Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Most models have the feature off the SE coast the end of this week into the weekend most keep it well offshore but they do mix is some runs that have more interesting outcomes..... the latest CMC was one of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Thank God it's the CMC. They are notorious for exaggerrating the strength of tropical systems. We could use some of that rain though here in Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 4, 2015 Author Share Posted June 4, 2015 Recent GFS/Euro runs have been showing a threat for a GOM TC formation around late next week. Climo for past El Nino's (that ended up later peaking as strong) for June suggests that IF there is going to be any tropical activity that a mid June TC in the GOM is about as likely a scenario as any and much more likely than a June TC off of the SE coast as was falsely modeled for early June. Also, the MJO, if anything, would seemingly be supportive based on forecasts. El Nino's actually have had somewhat higher than average frequency of June GOM storms from what I recall finding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 I doubt we'll get much this summer. Weird trough already in the Western Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Looks like the models have backed off the idea of having the East Pac invest cross the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and re-develop in the Gulf, as it's currently developing too far west. Still, surface pressures look anomalously low over the southern GoM through at least the next 10 days, so worth keeping an eye on in case something sneaky tries to spin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Looks like something to watch in the Gulf the next few days. NHC has upped development to 30% and NWS Mobile is talking about it in their AFD briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 It's 91l now. Movement towards Texas and might get more organized once it gets further into the WGOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 It's 91l now. Movement towards Texas and might get more organized once it gets further into the WGOM. Yup. Too bad it can't go further east. Texas doesn't really need the rain from a minimal tropical storm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Modeling is coming in better agreement. Intensity wise looks to be a weak TS at best but the precipitation potential is looking quite robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Recon added a flight for tomorrow once it clears the YP. 403rd Wing @403PA 2h2 hours ago The Hurricane Hunter's weekend may be getting busy with a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic to investigate tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Pretty obvious surface low developing with all those low-level clouds racing east of Belize This one should be an eastern weighted system that struggles to develop for a while. Rain threat for Texas does seem quite real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Modeling is coming in better agreement. Intensity wise looks to be a weak TS at best but the precipitation potential is looking quite robust. euro suggested over a foot of the wet stuff for areas just west of houston, and soil moisture is still way above normal. flood threat is obviously going to be nasty if the center tracks just west of the upper texas coast as the model consensus seems to indicate. as hgx mentions in the afternoon fd, the slower forward motion on the euro and canadian wouldn't help either. NHC just upped to 50%/60% on the latest TWO as well. not exactly the forecast this part of the country needs right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cypress Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 before yesterday, our yard was actually very dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 before yesterday, our yard was actually very dry you are certainly right that it has dried out since may, but in houston we are still above normal for soil moisture and the rain this morning over the southeast metro did not help: https://www.drought.gov/drought/content/products-current-drought-and-monitoring-drought-indicators/soil-moisture http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml# luckily the break in the rain did allow many/most of the rivers and all of bayous to reach more normal levels (the trinity is still high). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 It does seem that parts of it could move north far enough and become slightly or substantially entangled in the trough. It is easier to see in a larger image, it is available as a flash loop but will change from this specific time. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cypress Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 I like this one http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+today http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+/24h/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 It does seem that parts of it could move north far enough and become slightly or substantially entangled in the trough. It is easier to see in a larger image, it is available as a flash loop but will change from this specific time. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html That's an interesting one in the gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Blog off the coast is given a 40% chance of development. Doesn't look bad at the moment though it would be a fish. Edit: some of the models show it hitting Nova Scotia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Blog off the coast is given a 40% chance of development. Doesn't look bad at the moment though it would be a fish. Edit: some of the models show it hitting Nova Scotia It has become a tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Tropical Storm Claudette has been named in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Just passed the 10th anniversary of Dennis, Claudette is not a very impressive celebration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Conditions are more supportive than usual, could be a sign of things to come. I've been calling for a 1991 type season since winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Conditions are more supportive than usual, could be a sign of things to come. I've been calling for a 1991 type season since winter. The mdr is a mess. I expect allot of home grown sheard messes. On or two could blow up though if shear relaxes at the right time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 The mdr is a mess. I expect allot of home grown sheard messes. On or two could blow up though if shear relaxes at the right time This. Shear is ridiculously high this year thanks to a cranking subtropical jet, combined with stronger than average trade winds at the low levels. Subsidence is also much above average, evidenced by positive VP anomalies and much above average MSLP in the MDR. All this combined with below-avg SSTs in the MDR means that few if any easterly waves will survive at all to even reach the W Caribbean / Gulf / US East Coast. I wouldn't put too much hope in a late-season monsoon gyre type system either (other than perhaps a slopgyre), as shear only becomes worse by Oct in strengthening El Ninos. As has already been mention here, conditions are probably above average to nurture tropical transition events / frontal break-offs (PV tails) / and MCVs close to home, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Tropical Storm Claudette has been named in the Atlantic i was wondering if this was a homebrew system and according to wikipedia at least, the system began to organize over land. looking at this loop, which will be missing some of the beginning as time passes (but can be reset through editing the url to include a longer span of time) the initial convection began near OK and TX and, looking back a bit it is possibly even over NM and AZ that a slight circulation begins to form, but, the following loop allows the whole path of the cyclone to be seen at once. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_central+/144h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcool Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 any think active era since 2005 ended ? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 any think active era since 2005 ended ? ? It's too early to make any definitive conclusions. That said, it's possible, if not even likely, that the "active" era (warm phase) of the AMO may have ended following the 2010 season. Only time will tell for certain. I personally suspect it has...but, that assertion is mitigated somewhat by the fact that, if it has, it would be the shortest transition of AMO phases since it has been tracked (previous record of 25 seasons from 1970-1994)- dating back prior to the dawn of the 20th century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcool Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 okay thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 The early collapse of the +AMO should give us pause. I will leave it at that for now. That Atlantic does have a +NAO SST configuration but the anomalies are very warm where they are positive. It's an unusual configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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