AvantHiatus Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending over portions of Florida, the Bahamas, and adjacent waters are associated with an upper-level trough and a weak surface low located over the northwestern Bahamas. The aircraft reconnaissance mission scheduled for this afternoon has been cancelled. However, conditions are expected to become gradually more favorable for development over the next day or so while the system moves slowly northward. A subtropical or tropical cyclone could form by Thursday or Friday, and interests along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system through the weekend. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 8 PM EDT today. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent <3 Homebrew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 <3 Homebrew You can clearly see some rotation on radar almost due East of Orlando Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 IR and WV should be disabled for floaters on nascent subtropical systems. Too demoralizing. 90L doesn't look terribly good on vis, either, but at least it's getting swirly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Should be classified within the next 24 hours. Recon inbound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 URNT12 KNHC 072331 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL902015 A. 07/23:07:40Z B. 31 deg 24 min N 077 deg 38 min W C. 850 mb 1428 m D. 45 kt E. 297 deg 72 nm F. 031 deg 45 kt G. 297 deg 80 nm H. 1005 mb I. 14 C / 1504 m J. 15 C / 1505 m K. NA / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF305 02AAA INVEST OB 06 MAX FL WIND 45 KT 297 / 80 NM 22:41:30Z MAX FL TEMP 15 C 272 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 240 / 05 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panes and Portlets Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Looks better than most systems that get named. NHC said no 5pm update but will look again at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 That makes no sense to me. I can cite when the 1997 El Nino really came into swing in August which killed the rest of the season for the Gulf and when the moderate 2004-05 El Nino really got going in October 2004 which killed that season off early as well. I was referring to "typical" El Ninos and mentioned early season sometimes doing ok. Of course super El Ninos like 1997 don't do well, and neither do typical Ninos like 04-05 by the time you get towards late season. Or were you just saying the CFS forecast for SON / OND makes no sense? That I can agree with; I was more trying to highlight the fact that the JAS forecast might verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 NHC will be initiating advisories on Subtropical Storm Ana at 11 pm EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 I would guess that there won't be any TS Watches or Warnings on the 11pm adv because Ana is ST? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 I would guess that there won't be any TS Watches or Warnings on the 11pm adv because Ana is ST? They would still issue the same warning for a ST storm would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 I would guess that there won't be any TS Watches or Warnings on the 11pm adv because Ana is ST? They can still issue TS Watches/Warnings regardless of tropical or subtropical status. The nature of the storm at its core doesn't really affect the conditions it brings onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 The primary circulation center seems to be pinwheeling southwest away from the meager convection, although it definitely appears there are a couple distinct vortices within the larger envelope. It's ingesting extensive ML dry air, so I doubt we see much significant intensification in the near-term. Even as far as subtropical systems go, Ana hasn't been anything to write home about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Almost a hurricane per recon Nice temp gradient as well: Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft)Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,511m (4,957ft) 000URNT12 KNHC 090142VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012015A. 09/01:27:20ZB. 32 deg 02 min N077 deg 21 min WC. 850 mb 1393 mD. 62 ktE. 056 deg 53 nmF. 144 deg 67 ktG. 056 deg 51 nmH. 999 mbI. 11 C / 1510 mJ. 19 C / 1511 mK. 11 C / NAL. NAM. NAN. 1345 / 8O. 0.02 / 4 nmP. AF305 0401A ANA OB 11MAX FL WIND 73 KT 079 / 87 NM 00:37:00ZCNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 075 / 12 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Almost a hurricane per recon Nice temp gradient as well: Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,510m (4,954ft) Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,511m (4,957ft) It has really been getting its act together the last 12 hrs or so......pressure extrap of 997.3 isn't to shabby all things considered and the current floater loops shows it really trying to get wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Dry air seems to be creating downbursts, which is the reason FL winds are near 72 knots with surface winds around hurricane force. I suspect the NHC will say it's fully tropical due to the nice temp gradient within the COC. Very nice system for early May. Have to love UL dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Dry air seems to be creating downbursts, which is the reason FL winds are near 72 knots with surface winds around hurricane force. I suspect the NHC will say it's fully tropical due to the nice temp gradient within the COC. Very nice system for early May. Have to love UL dynamics. Yeah at best its a legit 50-60 mph TS but like you said not bad for May 8th.......on radar the center may be moving NW already a bit as well so I wouldn't be surprised to see the time table speed up a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Gulf Stream does wonders for SS>TS transitions... Reminds be of Beryl in 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Nope, still STS at 11pm... but with 60mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Looks healthy on the long range radar loops as well, much better looking and stronger than anything I was expecting... The only model I was watching that had the pressure sub 1000 in this time frame was the Nam 4km which takes it to 992 right before landfalling it just west of Cape Fear....all the other model have the pressure 5-10 mb to high at least last time they ran Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 There's convection at the center of circulation, how is it not tropical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 There's convection at the center of circulation, how is it not tropical? I'm shocked it's not classify as tropical with that temp difference posted above (outside the eye vs inside the eye). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Landfall expected early Sunday morning as a 60 MPH Tropical Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Radar and satellite says Ana is getting her act together. Probably just a tropical storm at landfall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 The 12zGFS shows a small possibility of development from the area near 35N 45W sliding SE towards the Bahamas as a sharp inverted trough and lifts NE from there and also in the long run{for entertainment purposes only} shows a tropical cyclone forming near Honduras and landfalling in Florida at 336hrs so with the Caribbean possibility we'll see if it moves up in time or is completely dropped or even moves to the EPAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Latest GFS has a low forming in the lower Bahamas / Cuba and tracking up over the Bahamas and then off the east coast of Florida moving generally NNW.....it is in the 11-14 day time frame though....that said the GFS picked up on Ana in that range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 That has been a known bias for the GFS/AVN for over a decade now. Sent from my GS5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Seems to be growing consensus for another B/I-type slopgyre surface low to form near Florida out in the Day 8-10 time frame (4-6 JUN). The culprit is another relatively low latitude 500MB low that cuts off from the northern stream by day 5.5-7.5 (1-3 JUN) near the western or central gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 Seems to be growing consensus for another B/I-type slopgyre surface low to form near Florida out in the Day 8-10 time frame (4-6 JUN). The culprit is another relatively low latitude 500MB low that cuts off from the northern stream by day 5.5-7.5 (1-3 JUN) near the western or central gulf coast. Interestingly, El Niño seasons have tended to have above average activity in May and June. The longterm below average activity by month doesn't start til July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Seems to be growing consensus for another B/I-type slopgyre surface low to form near Florida out in the Day 8-10 time frame (4-6 JUN). The culprit is another relatively low latitude 500MB low that cuts off from the northern stream by day 5.5-7.5 (1-3 JUN) near the western or central gulf coast. They got it right with Ana in this time frame so we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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