Tropical Atlantic 2015 speculation/action

[AvantHiatus]

Deep down, everyone knows why these things have happened, or at least I would hope so. At this point, you would need to of been living under a rock. Brazil's new era of drought is associated with essentially the death of the traditional ITCZ in the Atlantic basin.

 

I think more changes are in store tho, as nothing is stable anymore due to the escalating effects of AGW. Nothing would surprise me anymore, no joke. If current trends hold, I think the MDR will be shut down in regards to TC activity on a semi-permanent basis as the Hadley Cells expand.

 

As for the AMO ending prematurely, this is probably related to the ongoing deterioration of the AMOC system. The West Atlantic and GOM have a very warm profile. Perhaps in-part due to the +NAO as well. It's a culmination of several forcings that are overwhelming the natural +AMO signal.

 

 

There is no demonstrated predictability for when the AMO will switch, in any deterministic sense. Computer models, such as those that predict El Niño, are far from being able to do this. Enfield and colleagues have calculated the probability that a change in the AMO will occur within a given future time frame, assuming that historical variability persists. Probabilistic projections of this kind may prove to be useful for long-term planning in climate sensitive applications, such as water management.

Assuming that the AMO continues with its quasi-cycle of roughly 70 years, the peak of the current warm phase would be expected in c. 2020,^[13] or based on its 50–90 year quasi-cycle, between 2000 and 2040 (after peaks in c. 1880 and c. 1950).^{[10][relevant? – discuss]}

[Amped]

Almost hate to ask as it is in fantasy land, but is the storm GFS is showing east of the Bahamas on May 8 tropical?  Is this the first fantasy storm of the season?

It seems to come north of Hispanola and then comes north along the east coast.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015042306&fh=360&xpos=0&ypos=500

GFS GGEM still insisting on this. Euro has a weak low off the FL coast too.

Edit: Looks like the circulation extends up to 200mb, not fully tropical.

[SouthernWx2]

It should be another below normal season but the fact we continue in the longest lull between major landfalling US hurricanes of record AND it only takes one violent hurricane to make a season both deadly and memorable.......this coming hurricane season scares me to death

 

One only to look at past hurricanes Andrew, Betsy,  Donna, and the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, to see what can happen even in below average seasons. 

[calm_days]

This was a very strong sudden convection along the trailing boundary; for several frames the amount of water vapor overshoots the normal color range.  I tried looking for local weather radar images last night but was unable to find them.  Now I am looking for reports from the region, it looks to have been a very severe and noteworthy event, though not a cyclone specifically, with water vapor returns much higher than anything else on the globe at the time.

 

 

[Juliancolton]

It should be another below normal season but the fact we continue in the longest lull between major landfalling US hurricanes of record AND it only takes one violent hurricane to make a season both deadly and memorable.......this coming hurricane season scares me to death

 

One only to look at past hurricanes Andrew, Betsy,  Donna, and the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, to see what can happen even in below average seasons. 

Statistically speaking, this does not, in itself, make a major landfall this year any more or less likely than normal. There's no such thing as "overdue".

 

People have been playing the "it only takes one" card all spring, and it seems like little more than wish/hype-casting to me. For every Donna 60, Andrew 92, Gordon 94, etc., there are a slew of BN seasons that failed to produce anything of note. Sure, a couple storms could always defy the odds and find a path to the coast, but it's awfully bad logic to suggest that because a few BN seasons yielded retired-caliber storms, BN seasons are in any way more dangerous.

[AvantHiatus]

 

This was a very strong sudden convection along the trailing boundary; for several frames the amount of water vapor overshoots the normal color range.  I tried looking for local weather radar images last night but was unable to find them.  Now I am looking for reports from the region, it looks to have been a very severe and noteworthy event, though not a cyclone specifically, with water vapor returns much higher than anything else on the globe at the time.

 

[Roger Smith]

I have no speculation but I will post a seasonal forecast contest around May 15th with the deadline for (penalty-free) entries the usual June 1st. In most ways this will follow the same format as last year, hopefully this year we will have more storms. Will make one change to equalize all forecasts -- once you have a seasonal, I will post the implied monthly forecasts and those will stand unless you change them each month going forward. Your changes won't have to add up to your seasonal prediction but we will drop the feature altogether where you can revise your seasonal (you will have to do that by changing your monthly forecasts from the implied values). People who enter late can play along but will have a time penalty on seasonal and will have to take the implied monthlies that they missed. The long-term normal values will be last year's numbers (probablty not adjusted slightly to include last year's totals, as last year sort of limped up to near that average which IIRC was 14/8/3).

[AvantHiatus]

Today's 12z Euro.

 

[GaWx]

LC's final tropical ATL forecast is 14/7/3 and he thinks there will may be a couple of US threats (mainly S FL/Gulf based on his diagram) with perhaps one up the east coast with a 10/1 season peak.

LC is expecting El Niño to weaken during summer and later cool down to the neutral negative category. That's why he's got an active season being forecasted.

[IsentropicLift]

[Mike.Ventrice]

LC's final tropical ATL forecast is 14/7/3 and he thinks there will may be a couple of US threats (mainly S FL/Gulf based on his diagram) with perhaps one up the east coast with a 10/1 season peak.

LC is expecting El Niño to weaken during summer and later cool down to the neutral negative category. That's why he's got an active season being forecasted.

 

Who is LC? I presume he/she is expected another upwelling oceanic KW to wash out the warmth in the East Pac? I'm seeing 2014 all over again to be honest. Would be surprised if we had more than 10 name storms but if the nino forcing weakens, LC will be right.

[crownweather]

Who is LC? I presume he/she is expected another upwelling oceanic KW to wash out the warmth in the East Pac? I'm seeing 2014 all over again to be honest. Would be surprised if we had more than 10 name storms but if the nino forcing weakens, LC will be right.

 

Larry Cosgrove.  He sends out the WeatherAmerica newsletter and he is also a consulting meteorologist based out of Houston.  

[GaWx]

Who is LC? I presume he/she is expected another upwelling oceanic KW to wash out the warmth in the East Pac? I'm seeing 2014 all over again to be honest. Would be surprised if we had more than 10 name storms but if the nino forcing weakens, LC will be right.

Larry Cosgrove. Some analogs mentioned: "1954, 1959, 1970, 1977, 1978 (x2; strongest similarity), 2005, 2007"

[klw]

Almost hate to ask as it is in fantasy land, but is the storm GFS is showing east of the Bahamas on May 8 tropical?  Is this the first fantasy storm of the season?

It seems to come north of Hispanola and then comes north along the east coast.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015042306&fh=360&xpos=0&ypos=500

 

8 days later GFS still showing this:

 

[jaxjagman]

 

Some good rip currents should be possible along the east coast as slow as this is being shown to move

[Bruinsyear]

Larry Cosgrove. Some analogs mentioned: "1954, 1959, 1970, 1977, 1978 (x2; strongest similarity), 2005, 2007"

 

 

1954 one heck of a year for New England!

[Superstorm93]

Here we go

 

 

 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031431
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form north of
the Bahamas later this week. This system could gradually acquire
some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it moves
slowly northward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued on this system by 11 AM EDT Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[ineedsnow]

Nice!! would be cool to get a storm

[hurricaneman]

Looking at the setup a few good analogs are these

 

If it stays more subtropical 2007 Andrea and the date wouldn't be too different from Andrea

 

If it acquires more tropical characteristics then maybe Beryl in 2012 could be a decent analog

 

so this is going to have to be watched as it could be around for a while if the models are right

[IsentropicLift]

[IsentropicLift]

[AvantHiatus]

Sick, the best part about this system is that it will end the zzzzz fest for the entire East Coast.

[hurricaneman]

I looked at the CFSv2 and it shows below normal shear in the MDR, GOM and the Caribbean despite the El Nino in the heart of the hurricane season which could be a bias as it doesn't fit an El Nino pattern especially one of a traditional variety

[hurricaneman]

Here's Levi Cowan's idea of what will happen with this disturbance

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2015/05/04/subtropical-development-possible-off-southeast-u-s-later-this-week/

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

This is the latest shear anomaly forecast from CFS v2, which has a robust El Nino with a mean ASO temp in region 3.4 of about 2C.  Note that while shear is very harsh south of 20N, it's actually quite favorable north of 20N in the Gulf and NW Caribbean especially early in the season.  Nino climo actually isn't too horrible north and west of the MDR either.  I wouldn't expect a particularly active season, but I wouldn't call it a total bust already either.

 

AtludifSea.gif

 

That makes no sense to me.  I can cite when the 1997 El Nino really came into swing in August which killed the rest of the season for the Gulf and when the moderate 2004-05 El Nino really got going in October 2004 which killed that season off early as well.

[Akeem the African Dream]

Total crap system but at least it is producing some squally weather here at the coast.  It's got that tropical feeling out there.

[uncle W]

one of the analogs I'm looking at is 1914...The worst season for tropical storm trackers...I doubt it will be this slow but TWT...

[AvantHiatus]

There were likely some fish storms that were missed, still generally low tho.

[GaWx]

1914 was a 2nd year weak El Niño fwiw.

[uncle W]

another second year el nino that was slow was 1930...