PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Long distance Euro and GFS both showing something happening in the Gulf in 7-10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Long distance Euro and GFS both showing something happening in the Gulf in 7-10 days Pretty good model agreement on there being a system. The question is where it would go. GFS has been hinting at a Texas landfall...to give an idea of how rare that would be at this point in the season, the latest system that I could find to make landfall in Texas was a tropical storm on October 17, 1938. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Pretty good model agreement on there being a system. The question is where it would go. GFS has been hinting at a Texas landfall...to give an idea of how rare that would be at this point in the season, the latest system that I could find to make landfall in Texas was a tropical storm on October 17, 1938. It would probably be similar to Hurricane Jerry in 1989 if that's the path it takes... Of course the Euro has it consistently blowing up into a monster in the central Gulf, though this is starting to feel like a repeat of when nothing ended up happening the week before Joaquin lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 The HWRF is most definitely an outlier. The 12z run was on crack imho. Does anyone have a clown map thread on the go? That's got to be the coolest model run ever produced. That's sandy on crack. Easily a 500 billion storm. The stronger and more defined core would add many many feet to sandys surge. Not to mention adding 20mph to the winds would create near complete blow downs of deciduous forest in full leaf. Sandy hit when most trees were in leaf drop reducing the tree damage. Oaks did especially bad as they drop late. Nothing sounds crazier then 80mph gusts going through a fully leafed oak Forrest. 100 mph would be blow down time. We have several blow down tracks in my town from sandy. 200 yard long paths where oaks fell like dominos on each other. Should be visible for decades as these are 100 year old mature oaks. Granted not old growth but mature second growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 That's got to be the coolest model run ever produced. That's sandy on crack. Easily a 500 billion storm. The stronger and more defined core would add many many feet to sandys surge. Not to mention adding 20mph to the winds would create near complete blow downs of deciduous forest in full leaf. Sandy hit when most trees were in leaf drop reducing the tree damage. Oaks did especially bad as they drop late. Nothing sounds crazier then 80mph gusts going through a fully leafed oak Forrest. 100 mph would be blow down time. We have several blow down tracks in my town from sandy. 200 yard long paths where oaks fell like dominos on each other. Should be visible for decades as these are 100 year old mature oaks. Granted not old growth but mature second growthAnd luckily a US impact with Joaquin never happened!Sent from my XT1563 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 GFS and Euro are miles apart (literally!) for this weekend - last night's Euro takes a very weak low up the spine of Mexico, which dissipates it... GFS pops one up off the coast of Texas, and has it track the Texas and Louisiana coastline for days - nothing too dramatic, but plenty of rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 GFS shows a weak disturbance over the Bahamas day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 TD 12 has formed in the Bahamas, soon to be named later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Kate was born. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 The excitement over this storm is drowning me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Interesting system on the LR Euro... GFS was playing with a system/s (dual lows) in that timeframe and region a few runs ago, but lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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