Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 It would appear that swirl is an eddy, need a few more frames to confirm. Its not an eddy. That is the actual LLC marked by the NHC coordinates. Recon is on the way anyway. They'll probably find TS winds in the convection to the SE ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Sheesh...23 knots of shear as of 12z. Good thing this year is the year of the pathetic naked swirl. The MPI in that region is 894mb which is a nice differential of 115mb from the current intensity. Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 894.0 hPa MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 115.0 hPa CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 12.2 m/s Direction : 308.7 deg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Pretty sure it is, look how far it deviated off the NHC track and is now moving WSW. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-vis-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Looking at the loop doesn't it look like a new center wants to form under the deep convection and the naked swirl will just slowly die as it moves west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Looking at the loop doesn't it look like a new center wants to form under the deep convection and the naked swirl will just slowly die as it moves west? The turning to the southeast of TD 11 is the decoupled mid level low. Most of the time the convection slowly dies if there's no low level support, especially with a still very well defined LLC. My bet is that new convection will start to fire near or just east of the exposed low level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The turning to the southeast of TD 11 is the decoupled mid level low. Most of the time the convection slowly dies if there's no low level support, especially with a still very well defined LLC. My bet is that new convection will start to fire near or just east of the exposed low level low. The 12z UKmet does some weird things with this system that somewhat agree with current trends. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&mode=latest&map=na〈=en&hh=000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I'll take 'Not Long' for 500, Alex... If you zoom in on the LLC to 500% and pretend like you are looking at it from far away then the center looks really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 So...uh...that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Surprised this board isn't getting more action this afternoon. We have both major Hurricane models showing a potent storm traveling into Long Island, the European which shoes a Cat 1 Storm hitting the Mid Atlantic with a Sandy like track, and ALL models showing extreme amounts of rainfall for New England with widespread 5-10 inch amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Surprised this board isn't getting more action this afternoon. We have both major Hurricane models showing a potent storm traveling into Long Island, the European which shoes a Cat 1 Storm hitting the Mid Atlantic with a Sandy like track, and ALL models showing extreme amounts of rainfall for New England with widespread 5-10 inch amounts. Probably because the typical tropical snob rolls his eyes at a setup like this. They want a landfalling hurricane along the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Surprised this board isn't getting more action this afternoon. We have both major Hurricane models showing a potent storm traveling into Long Island, the European which shoes a Cat 1 Storm hitting the Mid Atlantic with a Sandy like track, and ALL models showing extreme amounts of rainfall for New England with widespread 5-10 inch amounts. The extreme rain is from 99L getting dragged along the front, but the insane ECM/HWRF/GFDL solutions are from TD11 Just to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Concerning on the one hand given the UA pattern, but the system has a long battle ahead of it, so am not putting stock in the perilous GFDL and HWRF intensity forecasts. Potential for heavy rain is uppermost in my mind, even without a direct strike, given the front retrograding back toward us from offshore and interacting with tropical moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Euro has a pretty impressive event for the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 12z UKMET blows TD11 up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The upper level anticyclone, currently centered around S FL, will start to migrate NE, to the NE of the Bahamas, while a deep trough sweeps it's way towards the E CONUS. Models have been trending farther to the left with TD 11, which means they are now much closer to where the anticyclone will be, hence why the models are showing a stronger depiction of what is now TD 11, since the shear is forecasted to diminish significantly. Not saying that's going to happen, but there's a valid possibility we see a hurricane out of TD 11 and a possible east coast threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The upper level anticyclone, currently centered around S FL, will start to migrate NE, to the NE of the Bahamas, while a deep trough sweeps it's way towards the E CONUS. Models have been trending farther to the left with TD 11, which means they are now much closer to where the anticyclone will be, hence why the models are showing a stronger depiction of what is now TD 11, since the shear is forecasted to diminish significantly. Not saying that's going to happen, but there's a valid possibility we see a hurricane out of TD 11 and a possible east coast threat. Exactly, recon shows the LLC trying to retrograde back into the convection per the latest pass. If this can stall out and get underneath the ULAC like the UKMET/HWRF suggest, then 11L has a shot at becoming a decent system. Something to watch as this is probably one of the last real tropical threats we'll see this season. Individual ECM members per Dr. Ryan Maue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Even the Canadian doesn't deepen it as fast as the Euro. Gotta give it a few more runs. Also the center is moving south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The NHC states the obvious large amount of uncertainty in both their intensity and track forecast for 11L. Tomorrow will be full of more interesting runs. Hopefully we can sort a G-V for sampling. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I gave some crap this AM for posting outlier model runs, but I'm officially intrigued here. Lots of shear to get through first, but a very worrisome upper air pattern for homebrew landfall on the EC. This plus 99L is a perfect storm for heavy rain, and SSTs along the EC are anomalously high, especially N of 30N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I gave some crap this AM for posting outlier model runs, but I'm officially intrigued here. The HWRF is most definitely an outlier. The 12z run was on crack imho. Does anyone have a clown map thread on the go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The blobs off of west Florida are keeping the sheer up. There are weenie mid level swirls off the coast of Pensacola and Ft Myers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 GFDL is on board with the euro, it slowed down enough so that landfall doesn't occur by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 18z follows the 12z for the banter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Have at it... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46962-tropical-storm-joaquin/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The only U.S. state since July of last year that has been under a Hurricane Warning, I believe, is Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Where has josh been this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Where has josh been this season? Facebook,Twitter and Taiwan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 There are some hints of a TW reaching the NW Caribbean in a week+ or so, while upper level conditions improve and may favor development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 There are some hints of a TW reaching the NW Caribbean in a week+ or so, while upper level conditions improve and may favor development. The GEFS have loved this threat for several days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Euro 240 also has a 1004mb ts near Cancun, and CMC brings it into Belize, so the GFS may have the general idea correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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