hurricaneman Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 The Caribbean does need to be watched as the pattern wants to pile moisture in the NW Caribbean which have lead to some significant tropical systems in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Just look at how cluttered everything is. Somewhat in relation to this there were three examples of organized convection adjacent to the east of ULLs; one was yesterday and a few days before in the southwest CONUS part of the Pacific, and two are occurring right now one being TS Ida and another just being for now an area of enhanced convection. It is a different version of when there were the three very strong cyclones in the Pacific; often it seems like the atmosphere especially in the northern hemisphere is prone to sharing characteristics throughout the hemisphere. I'm glad to know there are others here who like to look at the patterns in the satellite imagery. Here they are starting with the Pacific example then TS Ida, then the minor but organized convection offshore of the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Eric Blake from the NHC says that this is the first time since 1914 that there have been no hurricanes in the western Atlantic (west of 55 degrees) this late in the season. While wind shear has been a significant player, a lack of moisture has also contributed. Note that the El Niño anomalies are generally as would be expected across the Pacific, which had been fairly active for a good chunk of the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 September 22 and were on page 9 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 September 22 and were on page 9 lol It's been a rough few years for the tropic followers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Not a good season to be an east coast surfer. Even 97 had a big major long track cape verde that sent a multi day swell to the east coast!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Not a good season to be an east coast surfer. Even 97 had a big major long track cape verde that sent a multi day swell to the east coast!! This coastal offshore should deliver down here in the waves department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Although the 00Z Euro was a little weaker, both the Euro and GFS continue to look intriguing in the central Gulf in the 5-7 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Although the 00Z Euro was a little weaker, both the Euro and GFS continue to look intriguing in the central Gulf in the 5-7 day range. Just too much shear, and it looks like a big, loose low as well. By day 7+ upper level conditions might improve as the trough imparting the shear lifts out, but who knows if there will be anything over water to take advantage of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Just too much shear, and it looks like a big, loose low as well. By day 7+ upper level conditions might improve as the trough imparting the shear lifts out, but who knows if there will be anything over water to take advantage of those. Tbh I'll take anything even if it is a sheared piece of crap lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 12z GGEM is the lulz in the LR... has pretty decent hurricane in the GOM and takes it into W LA at the end of the run... but ofc, its the GGEM... though 00z had the tropical system in W FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 12z GGEM is the lulz in the LR... has pretty decent hurricane in the GOM and takes it into W LA at the end of the run... but ofc, its the GGEM... though 00z had the tropical system in W FL Well, that fulfills the first requirement on cyclogenesis: the GGEM has to have the strongest development of a tropical cyclone. It's a complicated setup, steering currents look pretty weak and fickle, with troughs and ridges alternating on being the main steering mechanism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 12z Euro has an even weaker sheared broad mess in the Gulf while GFS has a tropical storm making landfall near the MS/LA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 UKMET has a weak low that landfalls in W Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Also, this finally made the long-range TWO this afternoon: ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on TropicalStorm Ida, located about 1000 miles east of the northern LeewardIslands.1. A broad area of low pressure could form by Sunday over the southernGulf of Mexico. Development of this system, if any, should be slowto occur while it moves northward early next week.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percentForecaster Avila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Euro and GFS have trended weaker with Ida and whatever mess forms in the gulf, only the crazy GGEM shows anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Strong ensemble support for a low end tropical system in the Gulf by next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 GFS trended stronger at 00z while Euro doesn't look quite as messy as 12z yesterday, but still not great. Basically two possible solutions based on how the upper low over Texas evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 GFS still has a modest tropical storm going into the central Gulf Coast near Mobile, while the Euro finally shows a recognizable closed low going into the Big Bend. It's interesting how consistent the GFS has been, and how inconsistent the Euro has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 GFS still has a modest tropical storm going into the central Gulf Coast near Mobile, while the Euro finally shows a recognizable closed low going into the Big Bend. It's interesting how consistent the GFS has been, and how inconsistent the Euro has been. I honestly don't even remember what its like to have a active Atlantic season. The last few years have been so pathetic. Hoping that changes, as the Pacific has been on fire the last few years with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 The Carolina coast noreaster is producing more wind than whatever forms in the Gulf this week. The GFS day 7.5 noreaster also looks Looks stronger than anything I've seen in the western half of the atlantic this year. CFS v2 keeps the Caribbean dry even through week 3 and 4. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20150925.gif I think it's safe to call this hurricane season just as boring as forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Hrm... A surface circulation appears to be forming east of Belize. In the least, there is mid-level turning in that complex. That needs to be watched closely as an organizing surface low at that location would place development under a much more favorable region of upper support versus where the models had a much slower and broader developing surface feature coming off the north central Yucatan coastline in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 The Carolina coast noreaster is producing more wind than whatever forms in the Gulf this week. The GFS day 7.5 noreaster also looks Looks stronger than anything I've seen in the western half of the atlantic this year. CFS v2 keeps the Caribbean dry even through week 3 and 4. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20150925.gif I think it's safe to call this hurricane season just as boring as forecasted. Check again, it's warm core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 Just look at how cluttered everything is. This imagery from today really shows what you are describing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 The tropical system SW of Bermuda is looking good late Sunday PM. Moving NW. No one is talking about it. How does it interact with the trough along the east coast? More moisture? Does it get caught up and come up the coast or left behind?? Seems to have a circulation on the vis sat loop. I would give it better than 60% to become a storm in the next 24 to 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The tropical system SW of Bermuda is looking good late Sunday PM. Moving NW. No one is talking about it. How does it interact with the trough along the east coast? More moisture? Does it get caught up and come up the coast or left behind?? Seems to have a circulation on the vis sat loop. I would give it better than 60% to become a storm in the next 24 to 48 hours The NHC would agree Models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 TD #11 may have snuck through the cracks and looks to potentially impact the Northeast next weekend...How long will she be able to hold onto warm core / tropical characteristics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 TD #11 may have snuck through the cracks and looks to potentially impact the Northeast next weekend...How long will she be able to hold onto warm core / tropical characteristics? I'll take 'Not Long' for 500, Alex... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 It would appear that swirl is an eddy, need a few more frames to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 It would appear that swirl is an eddy, need a few more frames to confirm. It's clearly TD11. Shear may slack a bit soon enough and convection may start to fire near the center, but for now, it's a sorry piece of exposed crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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